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The Role of Migration Experience in Migrants’ Destination Choice


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Figure 1

Odds ratios of regional characteristics in 2007, 2009, and 2011. Note: 95% confidence intervals depicted.
Odds ratios of regional characteristics in 2007, 2009, and 2011. Note: 95% confidence intervals depicted.

Figure 2

Odds ratios of regional variables with number of years abroad. Note: 95% confidence intervals depicted.
Odds ratios of regional variables with number of years abroad. Note: 95% confidence intervals depicted.

Top migrant destinations and selected destination characteristics

Region% migrants% migrants% migrantsPopulation size, thousandsAverage wage, RuRUnemployment rate,%
Total200720092011200920082008
Moscow60.2357.7960.7563.3110,56330,5520.9
St Petersburg6.546.76.186.64,60022,4732.0
Sverdlovskaya obl.5.826.395.914.924,39417,5274.8
Tyumenskaya obl.2.191.563.232.243,43033,8776.5
Irkutskaya obl.1.851.41.083.132,50317,0728.7
Samarskaya obl.1.852.181.751.453,17014,6754.2
Chelyabinskaya obl.1.751.711.342.133,50914,8294.4
Novosibirskaya obl.1.231.321.480.892,65015,7147.3
Krasnodarsky kray1.161.010.42.015,21413,1634.8
Volgogradskaya obl.0.920.861.080.892,59012,0028.1

Conditional logistic regression of Tajik migrants' choice between Russian regions: interactions with migration experience (2009 and 2011)

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)
Unemployment rate, %1.29** (0.16)1.27** (0.13)1.28** (0.13)1.26** (0.13)1.19* (0.12)1.27** (0.14)1.27** (0.14)1.27** (0.13)1.27** (0.14)1.28** (0.14)
Change in unemployment rate (in pp.)0.88 (0.11)
Log of average wage (in 1,000 RuR)6.02* (6.07)4.88* (4.51)5.62* (5.17)7.82** (7.78)5.59* (5.15)5.69* (5.28)5.61* (5.21)5.59* (5.19)
Change in average wage (in%)1.02 (0.04)
Log of construction sector output (1,000 RuR per 1 citizen)2.29** (0.85)1.58 (0.57)
Change in construction sector output (in%)2.68 (1.70)
Log of population size (in 1,000 people)2.98*** (0.71)2.96*** (0.69)3.30*** (0.88)3.33*** (0.89)2.92*** (0.69)2.96*** (0.70)3.65*** (1.00)2.93*** (0.70)2.95*** (0.70)2.97*** (0.71)
Population density (in 1,000 people per km2)2.57*** (0.31)2.67*** (0.32)2.88*** (0.31)3.00*** (0.33)2.52*** (0.28)2.54*** (0.28)2.53*** (0.28)2.72*** (0.29)2.54*** (0.28)2.55*** (0.28)
Migration quota (work permits per 1,000 citizens)1.01 (0.01)1.01 (0.01)1.00 (0.01)1.01 (0.01)1.00 (0.01)1.01 (0.01)1.00 (0.01)1.00 (0.01)1.01 (0.01)1.01 (0.01)
Number of ethnic Tajiks per 1,000 citizens1.56** (0.27)1.60*** (0.28)1.78*** (0.26)1.59*** (0.25)1.57*** (0.27)1.56*** (0.27)1.57*** (0.27)1.56** (0.27)1.56*** (0.27)1.75*** (0.29)
Share of labor force employed in manufacturing (in %)1.13*** (0.05)1.13*** (0.05)1.13*** (0.04)1.12*** (0.04)1.13*** (0.04)1.13*** (0.05)1.13*** (0.04)1.13*** (0.04)1.13*** (0.04)1.13*** (0.05)
Share of labor force employed in utilities personal and social services (in %)0.64* (0.16)0.66* (0.16)0.64* (0.15)0.64* (0.15)0.66* (0.16)0.65* (0.16)0.66* (0.16)0.66* (0.16)0.66* (0.16)0.65* (0.16)
Share of labor force employed in mining1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)1.02 (0.05)1.07 (0.05)1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)
Change in unemployment rate * years of experience1.03 (0.02)
Change in average wage * years of experience0.98*** (0.01)
Construction sector output * years of experience0.95 (0.03)
Change in construction sector output * years of experience1.20* (0.12)
Unemployment rate * years of experience1.02*** (0.01)
Log of average wage * years of experience0.90*** (0.03)
Population size * years of experience0.94*** (0.02)
Population density * years of experience0.98*** (0.01)
Migration quotas * years of experience1.00* (0.00)
Number of ethnic Tajiks per 1,000 citizens * years of experience0.96* (0.02)
Observations41,36941,36941,36941,36941,36941,36941,36941,36941,36941,369

Conditional logistic regression of Tajik migrants' choice between Russian regions, (2007,2009, and 2011 pooled sample), robustness checks

Sample including MoscowSample excluding Moscow
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)
Moscow0.96 (0.77)1.16 (0.88)0.96 (0.77)1.29 (1.32)
Unemployment rate, %1.04 (0.06)1.19*** (0.08)1.20*** (0.08)1.28*** (0.10)1.20*** (0.08)1.14** (0.07)1.24*** (0.08)1.31*** (0.11)1.25*** (0.08)1.23*** (0.08)
Log of average wage (in 1,000 RuR)36.17*** (15.93)6.73*** (3.14)6.94*** (3.20)6.73*** (3.15)3.65** (2.05)4.20** (2.39)3.08* (1.87)
Log of weighted sum of occupation-specific wages (in 1,000 RuR)7.45*** (4.73)
Log of population size (in 1,000 people)4.08*** (1.06)2.76*** (0.45)2.86*** (0.48)3.08*** (0.52)2.86*** (0.50)3.28*** (0.58)3.00*** (0.49)3.21*** (0.55)3.19*** (0.57)3.20*** (0.55)
Population density (in 1,000 people per km2)2.47*** (0.15)2.40*** (0.46)2 41*** (0.44)2.40*** (0.45)2.46*** (0.60)1.94*** (0.33)2.03*** (0.35)1.96*** (0.33)1.88 *** (0.32)
Migration quota (work permits per 1,000 citizens)1.00 (0.00)0.99* (0.00)0.99 (0.00)0.99 (0.00)0.99 (0.00)0.99** (0.00)1.00 (0.00)1.00 (0.00)1.00 (0.00)1.00 (0.01)
Number of ethnic Tajiks per 1,000 citizens1.91*** (0.18)1.64*** (0.17)1.66*** (0.17)1.73*** (0.19)1.66*** (0.17)1.77*** (0.18)1.89*** (0.23)1.93*** (0.25)1.93*** (0.25)2.05*** (0.23)
Share of labor force employed in manufacturing (in %)0.95*** (0.02)1.11*** (0.03)1.12*** (0.03)1.13*** (0.03)1.12*** (0.03)1.10*** (0.02)1.11*** (0.03)1.12*** (0.03)1.11*** (0.03)1.10*** (0.03)
Share of labor force employed in utilities personal and social services (in %)0.44*** (0.06)0.81 (0.13)0.79 (0.13)0.73* (0.12)0.79 (0.13)0.91 (0.13)0.79 (0.13)0.74* (0.12)0.80 (0.13)0.77 (0.12)
Share of labor force employed in mining0.72*** (0.04)0.98 (0.03)0.98 (0.03)0.99 (0.03)0.98 (0.03)1.02 (0.03)0.99 (0.03)1.00 (0.03)0.99 (0.03)1.00 (0.03)
Change in unemployment rate (in pp.)0.89* (0.06)0.91 (0.06)
Change in average wage (in %)1.00 (0.02)0.98 (0.02)
Change in construction sector output (in %)1.42 (0.44)1.85* (0.65)
Log of construction sector output (1,000 RuR per 1 citizen)1.11 (0.24)1.43* (0.30)
109,142109,142109,142109,142109,14236,04036,04036,04036,040

Migrant characteristics (2007, 2009, 2011)

MeanSt. Err.Number of observations
Urban household,%23.90.82,662
Age30.00.22,662
Male, %92.10.52,662
Education
Primary, %11.40.62,657
Secondary, %62.70.92,657
Specialized secondary, %15.00.72,657
Higher or doctoral, %10.90.62,657
Occupation in Russia
Elementary occupations (ISCO* 9), %17.20.72,662
Stall and market salespersons (ISCO 523), %4.50.42,662
Building frame, building finishers and related traders (ISCO 712, 713), %30.20.92,662
Speaks Russian, %92.10.62,082
Stay abroad, months (for return migrants)9.90.3765

Migrant characteristics by years of migration experience

1–2 years of experience3–4 years of experience>4 years of experience
MeanSt. Err.MeanSt. Err.MeanSt. Err.
Male, %91.41.194.01.499.20.8
Education
Primary, %10.41.29.91.85.72.1
Secondary general, %65.21.957.42.949.24.5
Specialized secondary, %14.61.418.82.328.74.1
Higher or doctoral, %9.81.213.82.116.43.4
Number of observations605282122

Summary statistics for explanatory variables

VariableMeanSt. dev.MinMax
Population size (in 1,000 people)2,5421,96753111,091
Population density (in 1,000 people per km2)0.20.80.00034.3
Migration quota (work permits per 1,000 citizens)36.0318.951094.27
Number of ethnic Tajiks per 1,000 citizens1.110.720.233.33
Unemployment rate, %6.612.231.612.4
Average wage1 (in 1,000 RuR)15,4035,0669,85035,582
Construction sector output1 (in 1,000 RuR per 1 citizen)24.9816.755.2191.78
Change in unemployment rate (in pp.)-0.561.18-4.11.8
Change in average wage (in %)13.113.464.5919.89
Change in construction sector output (in %)1015-3158
Share of labor force employed in manufacturing (in %)17.175.524.127.02
Share of labor force employed in utilities personal and social services (in %)3.60.562.544.93
Share of labor force employed in mining (in %)1.652.770.0212.32

Conditional logistic regression of Tajik migrants' choice between Russian regions: interactions with migration experience, age, and education (2009 and 2011)

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)
Unemployment rate, %1.29** (0.16)1.27** (0.13)1.26** (0.13)1.27* (0.16)1.27** (0.14)1.27** (0.14)1.27** (0.13)1.28** (0.14)1.28** (0.14)1.28** (0.13)
Log of average wage (in 1,000 RuR)6.01* (6.08)4.82* (4.45)5.62* (5.17)5.20 (5.51)5.54* (5.11)5.74* (5.32)5.66* (5.26)5.58* (5.19)
Log of construction sector output (1,000 RuR per 1 citizen)1.57 (0.57)2.99** (1.55)
Log of population size (in 1,000 people)2.96*** (0.70)2.93*** (0.68)3.34*** (0.89)2.90*** (0.69)2.96*** (0.71)3.08*** (1.04)2.92*** (0.70)2.95*** (0.70)2.98*** (0.71)3.32*** (0.89)
Population density (in 1,000 people per km2)2.57*** (0.31)2.70*** (0.33)3.01*** (0.33)2.51*** (0.27)2.53*** (0.27)2.52*** (0.27)2.54*** (0.33)2.54*** (0.28)2.56*** (0.28)2.90*** (0.32)
Migration quota (work permits per 1,000 citizens)1.00 (0.01)1.01 (0.01)1.01 (0.01)1.00 (0.01)1.00 (0.01)1.00 (0.01)1.00 (0.01)1.01 (0.03)1.01 (0.01)1.00 (0.01)
Number of ethnic Tajiks per 1,000 citizens1.56** (0.27)1.60*** (0.28)1.59*** (0.25)1.57*** (0.27)1.56*** (0.27)1.57*** (0.27)1.56*** (0.27)1.56*** (0.27)1.49 (0.50)1.77*** (0.26)
Share of labor force employed in manufacturing (in %)1.14*** (0.05)1.14*** (0.05)1.12*** (0.04)1.13*** (0.04)1.13*** (0.05)1.13*** (0.04)1.13*** (0.05)1.13*** (0.04)1.13*** (0.05)1.13*** (0.04)
Share of labor force employed in utilities personal and social services (in %)0.65* (0.16)0.66* (0.16)0.64* (0.15)0.66* (0.16)0.65* (0.16)0.66* (0.16)0.66* (0.16)0.66* (0.16)0.65* (0.16)0.65* (0.15)
Share of labor force employed in mining1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)1.07 (0.05)1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)1.04 (0.04)1.02 (0.05)
Change in unemployment rate (in pp.)1.24 (0.40)
Change in average wage0.94
(in %)(0.09)
Change in construction sector16.66*
output (in %)(25.28)
Change in unemployment1.04**
rate * years of experience(0.02)
Change in unemployment0.99*
rate * age(0.01)
Change in unemployment rate0.94
* male(0.30)
Change in unemployment1.02
rate * specialized secondary(0.15)
education
Change in unemployment rate0.80
* higher education(0.15)
Change in average wage *0.98***
years of experience(0.01)
Change in average wage * age1.00
(0.00)
Change in average wage *1.08
male(0.07)
Change in average wage *1.08
specialized secondary(0.05)
education
Change in average wage * higher education1.13** (0.06)
Change in construction sector output * years of experience1.26** (0.13)
Change in construction sector output* age1.01 (0.03)
Change in construction sector output* male0.12* (0.14)
Change in construction sector output * specialized secondary education0.18* (0.16)
Change in construction sector output * higher education0.18 (0.20)
Unemployment rate * years of experience1.02*** (0.01)
Unemployment rate * age1.00 (0.00)
Unemployment rate * male0.90** (0.04)
Unemployment rate * specialized secondary education0.91** (0.03)
Unemployment rate * higher education0.90** (0.04)
Log of average wage * years of experience0.89*** (0.04)
Log of average wage * age0.98 (0.01)
Log of average wage * male2.35** (0.97)
Log of average wage * specialized secondary education2.26*** (0.67)
Log of average wage * higher education2.40** (0.82)
Population size * years of experience0.94*** (0.02)
Population size* age0.99 (0.01)
Population size* male1.42** (0.24)
Population size * specialized secondary education1.33* (0.21)
Population size * higher education1.56** (0.27)
Population density * years of experience0.97*** (0.01)
Population density * age1.00 (0.00)
Population density * male1.13* (0.07)
Population density * specialized secondary education1.14** (0.06)
Population density * higher education1.17*** (0.06)
Migration quotas * years of experience1.00* (0.00)
Migration quotas * age1.00 (0.00)
Migration quotas * male1.01 (0.02)
Migration quotas * specialized secondary education1.01 (0.01)
Migration quotas * higher education1.01 (0.01)
Number of ethnic Tajiks per 1,000 citizens * years of experience0.96** (0.02)
Number of ethnic Tajiks per 1,000 citizens * age1.00 (0.01)
Number of ethnic Tajiks per 1,000 citizens* male1.12 (0.32)
Number of ethnic Tajiks per 1,000 citizens * specialized secondary education1.28 (0.20)
Number of ethnic Tajiks per 1,000 citizens * higher education1.14 (0.22)
Construction sector output * years of experience0.95 (0.03)
Construction sector output *age0.98** (0.01)
Construction sector output * male1.25 (0.46)
Construction sector output * specialized secondary education1.71*** (0.33)
Construction sector output * higher education1.75** (0.39)
Observations41,32841,32841,32841,32841,32841,32841,32841,32841,32841,328

Migrants’ distribution across Russian regions, %

Total200720092011
Moscow60.2357.7960.7563.31
St Petersburg6.546.76.186.6
Sverdlovskaya5.826.395.914.92
Tyumenskaya2.191.563.232.24
Irkutskaya obl1.851.41.083.13
Samarskaya1.852.181.751.45
Chelyabinskaya1.751.711.342.13
Novosibirskaya obl1.231.321.480.89
Krasnodarsky kray1.161.010.42.01
Volgogradskaya obl0.920.861.080.89
Kemerovskaya0.790.620.541.23
Permsky kray0.680.70.271.01
Rostovskaya obl0.650.550.540.89
Tatarstan0.480.780.130.34
Orenburgskaya obl0.480.470.670.34
Ryazanskaya obl0.440.390.130.78
Moscow region0.410.231.080.11
Tverskaya0.410.160.810.45
Kaluzhskaya0.340.160.670.34
Khabarovskaya0.340.390.40.22
Saratovskaya0.310.470.40
Yaroslavsky krai0.310.230.540.22
Bashkortostan0.2100.40.34
Altayski kray0.170.3900
Omskaya obl0.170.230.270
Penzenskaya0.1700.540.11
Smolenskaya0.1700.40.22
Astrakhanskaya obl0.140.230.130
Voronezskaya0.1400.270.22
Arkhangelsk0.10.080.270
Lipetskaya0.10.080.270
Nizhni-Novgorod0.10.080.130.11
Tomskaya0.10.080.130.11
Tulskaya0.10.1600.11
Khakassia0.030.0800
Amurskaya obl0.0300.130
Kurganskaya0.030.0800
Tambovskaya0.0300.130
Ulyanovskaya0.030.0800
Yakutia0.03000.11
Bryanskaya obl0.03000.11
Other8.912.387.535.03

Conditional logistic regression of Tajik migrants’ choice between Russian regions, (2007, 2009, and 2011 pooled sample)

(1)(2)(3)(4)
Unemployment rate, %1.20*** (0.08)1.28*** (0.10)1.20***(0.08)1.14** (0.07)
Change in unemployment rate (in pp.)0.89* (0.06)
Log of average wage (in 1,000 RuR)6.72*** (3.14)6.98*** (3.21)6.73*** (3.15)
Change in average wage (in %)1.00 (0.02)
Log of construction sector output (1,000 RuR per 1 citizen)1.12 (0.24)
Change in construction sector output (in %)1.43 (0.44)
Log of population size (in 1,000 people)2.86*** (0.48)3.08*** (0.52)2.86*** (0.50)3.28*** (0.58)
Population density (in 1,000 people per km2)2.38*** (0.15)2.50*** (0.17)2.38*** (0.15)2.61*** (0.16)
Migration quota (work permits per 1,000 citizens)0.99 (0.00)0.99 (0.00)0.99 (0.00)0.99** (0.00)
Number of ethnic Tajiks per 1,000 citizens1.66*** (0.17)1.73*** (0.19)1.66*** (0.17)1.77*** (0.18)
Share of labor force employed in manufacturing (in %)1.12*** (0.03)1.13*** (0.03)1.12*** (0.03)1.10*** (0.02)
Share of labor force employed in utilities personal and social services (in %)0.79 (0.12)0.73** (0.12)0.79 (0.12)0.90 (0.13)
Share of labor force employed in mining0.98 (0.03)0.99 (0.03)0.98 (0.03)1.02 (0.03)
Number of observations109,142109,142109,142109,142