Can the war in Ukraine thwart the green agricultural transformation in the EU? Political economy considerations regarding the case of Germany
| Jun 30, 2023
About this article
Article Category: Empirical Paper
Published Online: Jun 30, 2023
Page range: 79 - 100
Received: Dec 13, 2022
Accepted: Apr 19, 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2023-0009
Keywords
© 2023 Jürgen Wandel, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Figure 1.
![Share of Russia and Ukraine in the global exports of selected agricultural products in 2020 (in%).
Source: Statista [2022a].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/6471f9f7215d2f6c89db748c/j_ijme-2023-0009_fig_001.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20240621T051038Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=18000&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA6AP2G7AKP25APDM2%2F20240621%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=113831a20ac338aa0cac7ce8b1534d301181a5d90739136d730615f36faa7749)
Figure 2.
![FAO Annual Nominal Food Price Indices (2014-2016 = 100).
Source: FAO [2022b].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/6471f9f7215d2f6c89db748c/j_ijme-2023-0009_fig_002.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20240621T051038Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=18000&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA6AP2G7AKP25APDM2%2F20240621%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=3f3b6ef28ac93c5aca3c29057ec6cbb4b0ab0d46587d717f4f66a1a9f1123872)
Figure 3.
![FAO Monthly Nominal Food Price Indices (2014-2016 = 100).
Source: FAO [2022b].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/6471f9f7215d2f6c89db748c/j_ijme-2023-0009_fig_003.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20240621T051038Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=18000&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA6AP2G7AKP25APDM2%2F20240621%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=af7e1ecd9ed5542fef4ac1a71807979e807b62f191c92d28c696efde051576c4)
Positions of major farmers’ interest groups
| Association | Position |
|---|---|
| DBV (German Farmers’ Association) | Rethinking of agricultural policy Departure from the extensification of EU agriculture Suspension of the set-aside requirement and restrictions on the use of pesticides Zero import tariffs on all types of nitrogen fertilizer In principle acceptance of the green transformation, but less rigorous requirements: less bureaucracy more money for eco schemes inclusion of food security as an explicit goal of equal importance in the Green Deals |
| DBB (German Farmers’ Union) | Partly similar positions as the DBV The main task of agriculture is and remains the production of food; the “green architecture” is of secondary importance Against isolated German actions that harm competitiveness of German agriculture |
| LsV (The countryside connects) | Harsh criticism of the green ambitions of the EU and the German Federal Government → initiator of farmer protests since 2019 Advocates regional agriculture |
| BDM (Association of German Dairy Farmers) | “Do not abuse the war in Ukraine for selfish economic interests” Maintaining the course of greening EU’s agricultural policy → less intensification → less surplus production →higher farm-gate prices |
| BÖLW (Federation of Organic Food Producers) | No compromises on the F2F Strategy Expansion of organic farming now more than ever as it reduces dependence on nitrogen fertilizers from fossil raw materials |
Positions of German political parties on agricultural transition in view of the war in Ukraine
| Party | Position |
|---|---|
| SPD | The war must not be used as an excuse to stop and repeal the green agro-food transformation No genetic engineering, more organic farming, transformation of livestock farming, implementation of the nitrate directive, and use of renewable energies in agriculture Urgent need to implement the agro-food transformation |
| The Greens | No threat to food supply in the EU Green Deal is more important than ever Scaling down of feed and livestock production |
| Liberal Party (FDP) | Suspension of the set aside obligation of 4% of acreage (if necessary for >1 year); some party members demand suspending the entire F2F Stratagy Absolute priority of food security in times of war and inflation Demand of a detailed assessment of the impact of Green Deal measures |
| CDU/CSU | Repeal of the obligation to set aside 4% of acreage Allowance to plant all crops on ecological focus areas Temporary permission of the use of pesticides on ecological focus areas |
| The Left (Die Linke) | Against any deviation from the F2F Strategy Sharp reduction of the number of livestock in order to replace animal feed production by crop production for human consumption Reduction of import dependency of developing countries by establishing regional economic cycles |
| Alternative for Germany (AFD) | For the unrestricted cultivation of set-aside land and ecological focus areas No restrictions on the use of fertilizers on ecological areas Temporary government support of the use of organic fertilizers and nitrogen-fixing plants |
Positions of selected environmental and development aid groups
| Partei | Position |
|---|---|
| DUH | No reversal of the “Agrarwende” |
| BUND |
Replacement of nitrogen fertilizers by organic fertilizers |
| Germanwatch | Against intensification of agriculture in Europe and softening of ecological restrictions constraints |
| Brot für die Welt |
Against the expansion of agricultural production in the EU and free trade |