<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<sec><h3>Research background</h3>
<p>Geopolitical risk is currently recognized as a worldwide concern that significantly affects various economic sectors. As a consequence, rising geopolitical risks can cause a decline in the number of tourist arrivals.</p>
</sec>
<sec><h3>Purpose</h3>
<p>The aim of this paper is to examine the applicability of a commonly used dynamic model, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), in a panel data context and the effect of geopolitical risk on explaining tourist demand in chosen countries across long and short time periods.</p>
</sec>
<sec><h3>Research methodology</h3>
<p>On 18 developing economies, the Cross-sectionally Augmented Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) technique is used.</p>
</sec>
<sec><h3>Results</h3>
<p>The results of the test show interesting insights. Although the consequences of geopolitical threats in the short term are significant and have a negative impact on tourist arrivals, in the long term, results show there is no effect. Specifically, a rise in geopolitical risk decreases foreign visitor visits in the short term but has no lasting impact.</p>
</sec>
<sec><h3>Novelty</h3>
<p>Using an econometric model, this study contributes to the limited research on the link between geopolitical risk and tourist arrivals.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>

Research background
Geopolitical risk is currently recognized as a worldwide concern that significantly affects various economic sectors. As a consequence, rising geopolitical risks can cause a decline in the number of tourist arrivals.

Purpose
The aim of this paper is to examine the applicability of a commonly used dynamic model, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), in a panel data context and the effect of geopolitical risk on explaining tourist demand in chosen countries across long and short time periods.

Research methodology
On 18 developing economies, the Cross-sectionally Augmented Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) technique is used.

Results
The results of the test show interesting insights. Although the consequences of geopolitical threats in the short term are significant and have a negative impact on tourist arrivals, in the long term, results show there is no effect. Specifically, a rise in geopolitical risk decreases foreign visitor visits in the short term but has no lasting impact.

Novelty
Using an econometric model, this study contributes to the limited research on the link between geopolitical risk and tourist arrivals.

Dynamic Common Correlated Effects of Geopolitical Risk on International Tourism Arrivals

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Research background
Geopolitical risk is currently recognized as a worldwide concern that significantly affects various economic sectors. As a consequence,...

Dynamic Common Correlated Effects of Geopolitical Risk on International Tourism Arrivals

Published Online: Dec 09, 2023

Page range: 132 - 149

Received: Feb 24, 2023

Accepted: Sep 25, 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/foli-2023-0023

Keywords
geopolitical risk, international tourism, CS-ARDL testing method, Dynamic Panel

© 2023 Suzana Herman, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Dynamic Common Correlated Effects of Geopolitical Risk on International Tourism Arrivals

Published Online: Dec 09, 2023

Page range: 132 - 149

Received: Feb 24, 2023

Accepted: Sep 25, 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/foli-2023-0023

Keywordsgeopolitical risk, international tourism, CS-ARDL testing method, Dynamic Panel

© 2023 Suzana Herman, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Keywords
geopolitical risk, international tourism, CS-ARDL testing method, Dynamic Panel