<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis 2022 on tourism has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun to look for the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined in order to to forecast the possible ways to tourism recovery in Slovenia. The goals of this paper are to show and assess the current offerings and potential for the development of tourism in Slovenia, and to point out the advantages and challenges in the development of tourism in this type of destination. Statistical methods were used for benchmark analysis, while Box and Jenkins approach and ARIMA modeling were used for forecasting Slovenian tourism until 2030. The datasets are analyzed using Tableau 2022.1. Our findings show that Slovenian tourism will be slower on the uptake and is not likely to fully recover until 2026, due to COVID-19 related uncertainty. A steep jump in daily COVID-19 infections in China and the Ukraine crisis which is affecting political and economic stability in the world is also slowing down the speed of recovery. In 2019, Chinese, Russian and Ukrainian tourists generated 5% of all tourist arrivals and overnight stays. In particular Russian tourists were well-known for their high consumer expenditure and thus desirable to the destination places. To mitigate the drop in tourist arrivals, Slovenia should do two things, namely concentrate on traditional markets, i.e. Austria, Italy, and Germany, which altogether represent 1/3 of all tourist arrivals and overnight stays, and secondly, it should target new markets, bringing new, innovative products, services, and experiences.</p>
</abstract>

The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis 2022 on tourism has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun to look for the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined in order to to forecast the possible ways to tourism recovery in Slovenia. The goals of this paper are to show and assess the current offerings and potential for the development of tourism in Slovenia, and to point out the advantages and challenges in the development of tourism in this type of destination. Statistical methods were used for benchmark analysis, while Box and Jenkins approach and ARIMA modeling were used for forecasting Slovenian tourism until 2030. The datasets are analyzed using Tableau 2022.1. Our findings show that Slovenian tourism will be slower on the uptake and is not likely to fully recover until 2026, due to COVID-19 related uncertainty. A steep jump in daily COVID-19 infections in China and the Ukraine crisis which is affecting political and economic stability in the world is also slowing down the speed of recovery. In 2019, Chinese, Russian and Ukrainian tourists generated 5% of all tourist arrivals and overnight stays. In particular Russian tourists were well-known for their high consumer expenditure and thus desirable to the destination places. To mitigate the drop in tourist arrivals, Slovenia should do two things, namely concentrate on traditional markets, i.e. Austria, Italy, and Germany, which altogether represent 1/3 of all tourist arrivals and overnight stays, and secondly, it should target new markets, bringing new, innovative products, services, and experiences.

Recovery of Slovenian Tourism After Covid-19 and Ukraine Crisis

ECONOMICS

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

{"article-title":"Recovery of Slovenian Tourism After Covid-19 and Ukraine Crisis"}

The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis 2022 on tourism has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars...

Recovery of Slovenian Tourism After Covid-19 and Ukraine Crisis

Published Online: Jun 29, 2022

Page range: 55 - 72

Received: Mar 10, 2022

Accepted: May 09, 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2022-0003

Keywords
Slovenia, Ukraine crisis, COVID-19, Tourism demand, Crisis management, Delphi method, Forecasting scenarios

© 2022 Predrag Ljubotina et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Recovery of Slovenian Tourism After Covid-19 and Ukraine Crisis

Published Online: Jun 29, 2022

Page range: 55 - 72

Received: Mar 10, 2022

Accepted: May 09, 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2022-0003

KeywordsSlovenia, Ukraine crisis, COVID-19, Tourism demand, Crisis management, Delphi method, Forecasting scenarios

© 2022 Predrag Ljubotina et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Keywords
Slovenia, Ukraine crisis, COVID-19, Tourism demand, Crisis management, Delphi method, Forecasting scenarios