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<p>Economic experts’ predictions of a slowdown in the EU’s global economy and economic growth in the year 2020 were based on various risks and uncertainties existing on a world scale, ranging from the US-China trade war, traditionally strained relations of the EU and the US on the one hand and the Russian Federation on the other, all the way to BREXIT and economic migration to developed EU countries. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has further aggravated those forecasts, so that the entire EU is recording a historic decline in all macroeconomic aggregates. The beginning of the pandemic in the EU was accompanied by the complete border lockdown of the entire Union, which greatly affected the economies of the member states. The EU is experiencing a decline of both real and nominal GDP, declining incomes, employment decline and unemployment increase. This paper will investigate the impact of COVID-19 onto GDP, unemployment, and EU public debt. Correlation-regression analysis confirms the positive correlation between these variables and the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to the economic crisis, a crisis of EU health systems, which requires huge economic investments. A more prominent economic recovery is hard to expect until the global pandemic ends. One thing is for certain, this economic crisis will continue in 2021, whereby a more significant recovery is expected only in the year 2022. Certainly, it will take years to make up for the economic losses caused by the pandemic.</p>
</abstract>

Economic experts’ predictions of a slowdown in the EU’s global economy and economic growth in the year 2020 were based on various risks and uncertainties existing on a world scale, ranging from the US-China trade war, traditionally strained relations of the EU and the US on the one hand and the Russian Federation on the other, all the way to BREXIT and economic migration to developed EU countries. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has further aggravated those forecasts, so that the entire EU is recording a historic decline in all macroeconomic aggregates. The beginning of the pandemic in the EU was accompanied by the complete border lockdown of the entire Union, which greatly affected the economies of the member states. The EU is experiencing a decline of both real and nominal GDP, declining incomes, employment decline and unemployment increase. This paper will investigate the impact of COVID-19 onto GDP, unemployment, and EU public debt. Correlation-regression analysis confirms the positive correlation between these variables and the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to the economic crisis, a crisis of EU health systems, which requires huge economic investments. A more prominent economic recovery is hard to expect until the global pandemic ends. One thing is for certain, this economic crisis will continue in 2021, whereby a more significant recovery is expected only in the year 2022. Certainly, it will take years to make up for the economic losses caused by the pandemic.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Macroeconomic Aggregates of the European Union

ECONOMICS

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Economic experts’ predictions of a slowdown in the EU’s global economy and economic growth in the year 2020 were based on various risks and uncertainties...

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Macroeconomic Aggregates of the European Union

Published Online: Dec 30, 2021

Page range: 91 - 108

Received: Jun 11, 2021

Accepted: Sep 02, 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2021-0023

Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, EU, EU GDP, EU macroeconomic aggregates, economic crisis

© 2021 Aleksandar Đukić et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Macroeconomic Aggregates of the European Union

Published Online: Dec 30, 2021

Page range: 91 - 108

Received: Jun 11, 2021

Accepted: Sep 02, 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2021-0023

KeywordsCOVID-19 pandemic, EU, EU GDP, EU macroeconomic aggregates, economic crisis

© 2021 Aleksandar Đukić et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, EU, EU GDP, EU macroeconomic aggregates, economic crisis