<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The standard Bayesian recipe for selecting the rational choice is presented. A familiar example in which the recipe fails to produce any definite result is introduced. It is argued that a generalization of Gärdenfors’ and Sahlin’s theory of unreliable probabilities — which itself does not guarantee a solution to the problem — offers the best available approach. But a number of challenges to this approach are also presented and discussed.</p></abstract>

The standard Bayesian recipe for selecting the rational choice is presented. A familiar example in which the recipe fails to produce any definite result is introduced. It is argued that a generalization of Gärdenfors’ and Sahlin’s theory of unreliable probabilities — which itself does not guarantee a solution to the problem — offers the best available approach. But a number of challenges to this approach are also presented and discussed.

On the Rationality of Decisions with Unreliable Probabilities

Disputatio

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

{"article-title":"On the Rationality of Decisions with Unreliable Probabilities"}

The standard Bayesian recipe for selecting the rational choice is presented. A familiar example in which the recipe fails to produce any definite result is...

On the Rationality of Decisions with Unreliable Probabilities

Published Online: Dec 31, 2018

Page range: 97 - 116

Received: Jul 27, 2009

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/disp-2009-0003

Keywords
Rationality, Bayesianism, utility, probability, reliability

© 2009 Fernando Birman, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

On the Rationality of Decisions with Unreliable Probabilities

Published Online: Dec 31, 2018

Page range: 97 - 116

Received: Jul 27, 2009

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/disp-2009-0003

KeywordsRationality, Bayesianism, utility, probability, reliability

© 2009 Fernando Birman, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Keywords
Rationality, Bayesianism, utility, probability, reliability