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Fiscal rules as institutional tools for public debt management in the European Union Member States


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Description of the descriptive statistics

VARIABLE Observations Mean Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
Fiscal Rules Strenght Index 378 0.7084127 0.9798401 −1.02 2.82
public debt 378 66.22778 37.75777 4.5 206.3
debt interest 378 1.956614 1.238837 0 7.7
deficit/surplus 378 −3.066138 3.707325 −32.1 4.2
cyclically-adjusted budget balance 378 −2.365608 3.167287 −30.8 6.2
daily 10-year bond yield 366 2.855295 3.129125 −0.575 35.488
bond spread 366 1.758749 2.613217 −0.5189998 33.672
Voice and Accountability 350 51.98492 29.71663 4.830918 95.77465
Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism 370 54.64296 29.54909 0.4716981 99.52607
Government Effectiveness 370 55.5651 28.28134 3.349282 98.55769
Regulatory Quality 370 56.19351 27.2911 3.349282 99.04306
Rule of Law 370 53.47647 28.92073 0.4694836 98.55769
Control of Corruption 370 55.74705 30.06113 0.4739336 96.20853

Correlation matrix

No EXPLANATORY VARIABLE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1 Fiscal Rules Strenght Index 1
2 daily 10-year bond yield −0.5306* 1
3 public debt −0.0005 0.1468* 1
4 deficit/surplus 0.3031* −0.4334* −0.3385* 1
5 cyclically-adjusted budget balance 0.2975* −0.3578* −0.1163* 0.8492* 1
6 Voice and Accountability −0.1824* 0.0465 0.0973 0,0429 0.0858 1
7 Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism −0.1825* 0.0341 0.2330* −0,0730 −0.0011 0.7851* 1
8 Government Effectiveness −0.0833 0.0071 0.1231* −0,0454 −0.0395 0.7126* 0.8334* 1
9 Regulatory Quality −0.0905 0.0537 0.1503* −0,0662 −0.0389 0.6945* 0.7549* 0.9200* 1
10 Rule of Law −0.1177* 0.0827 0.1816* −0.1066* −0.0823 0.7711* 0.8113* 0.9366* 0.9265* 1
11 Control of Corruption −0.0881 0.0512 0.1547* −0.0953 −0.0706 0.7609* 0.8522* 0.9165* 0.8478* 0.9185* 1

GMM model estimation results

EXPLANATORY VARIABLE one step GMM debt interest Coefficient (Std. err.) two step GMM debt interest Coefficient (Std. err.) one step GMM debt interest Coefficient (Std. err.) one step GMM debt interest Coefficient (Std. err.)
L1.debt interest 0.9308 (0.0386) *** 0.7037 (0.0617) *** 0.7673 (0.0542) *** 0.6979 (0.0614) ***
L2.debt interest −0.1566 (0.0309) *** −0.1315 (0.0443) *** −0.1401 (0.0409) *** −0.1491 (0.0446) ***
Fiscal Rules Strenght Index −0.1560 (0.0214) *** −0.1387 (0.0429) *** −0.1177 (0.0381) *** −0.1328 (0.0427) ***
cyclically-adjusted budget balance −0.0060 (0.0077) −0.0378 (0.0146) ** −0.0410 (0.0160) **
daily 10-year bond yield 0.0656 (0.0085) *** 0.0688 (0.0081) *** 0.0679 (0.0085) ***
public debt 0.0159 (0.0026) *** 0.0154 (0.0024) *** 0.0182 (0.0027) ***
deficit/surplus 0.0350 (0.0132) *** 0.0371 (0.0147) ***
bond spread 0.0553 (0.0066) ***
time effects YES YES YES YES
country effects YES YES YES YES
WORLDWIDE GOVERNANCE INDICATORS:
Voice and Accountability 0.0018 (0.0053) 0.0016 (0.0053)
Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism −0.0063 (0.0032) ** −0.0050 (0.0032)
Government Effectiveness −0.0053 (0.0050) −0.0049 (0.0050)
Regulatory Quality 0.0034 (0.0044) 0.0039 (0.0043)
Rule of Law 0.0050 (0.0055) 0.0072 (0.0055)
Control of Corruption 0.0037 (0.0040) 0.0026 (0.0040)
_cons 0.4305497 0.0559336 *** 46.40693 22.35035 ** 7.103621 19.88599 29.67862 24.50822
number of observations 314 286 314 286
number of groups 27 27 27 27
number of instruments 92 111 106 112
Wald test 3339.07 *** 4205.08 *** 4632.3 *** 4258.97 ***
Sargan test 144.8554 0.0001 99.02662 0.0331 105.1826 0.0123 94.16071 0.0666
Arellano–Bond test AR(1) −1.7885 0.0737
Arellano–Bond test AR(2) −0.9867 0.3238

Definition of variables

VARIABLE DEFINITION DATA SOURCE
debt interest (% of GDP) a dependent variable representing the government’s gross debt servicing costs (interest, payable, according to ESA 2010). EUROSTAT, European Commission
Fiscal Rules Strenght Index (FRSI) an indicator providing a synthetic measure of the quality of fiscal rules, covering all types of numerical fiscal rules (budget balance rules, debt rules, expenditure rules and revenue rules) in EU Member States, at all levels of government (central, regional and local, general government and social security). Fiscal rules database, DG ECFIN, European Commission
cyclically-adjusted budget balance (CAB) (% of potential GDP) the structural budget balance adjusted for one-off and temporary measures, which represents a hypothetical value indicating what the value of the budget balance would be if actual output were equal to potential output, while accounting for interest payments. AMECO, DG ECFIN, European Commission
deficit/surplus (% of GDP) the actual budget balance, that is the difference between total revenue and total expenditure (the government net lending(+)/net borrowing(−), according to ESA 2010). EUROSTAT, European Commission
public debt (% of GDP) the government gross debt (the government consolidated gross debt, according to ESA 2010). EUROSTAT, European Commission
daily 10-year bond yield a return on capital invested in 10-year government bonds (the value of the 10-year government bond yield for a calendar year was determined on the last working day of the last calendar month). investing.com
bond spread a risk premium that signifies the difference between the yield on a 10-year government bond of an EU Member State and the yield on a 10-year government bond of Germany, which is considered highly secure. investing.com
Worldwide Governance Indicators: aggregate indicators to assess individual countries, including EU Member States, on the quality of institutional governance in the following six dimensions: World Bank, WGI
Voice and Accountability measures perceptions of the extent to which citizens participate in electing their government, as well as freedom of speech, freedom of association and freedom of the media;
Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism measures perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically motivated violence, including terrorist acts;
Government Effectiveness measures perceptions of the quality of public services and their degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government;
Regulatory Quality measures perceptions of the government’s ability to formulate and implement stable policies and regulations conducive to private sector development;
Rule of Law measures perceptions of levels of trust and compliance with the rule of law, in particular contract enforcement, property rights, and the quality of justice;
Control of Corruption measures perceptions of the extent of all forms of corruption perpetrated by public authorities, as well as the ‚capture’ of the state by elites and private interests.
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