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The Relationship between Fertility and Female Participation in the Labour Force in OECD Countries 2000–2020: It Is (Again) Negative

Miloš Milovanović
Miloš Milovanović
   | Oct 08, 2023
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Published Online: Oct 08, 2023
Page range: 254 - 274
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0015
Keywords
© 2023 Miloš Milovanović, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

Female labour force participation rates by OECD member countries, 2000–2020
Female labour force participation rates by OECD member countries, 2000–2020

Figure 2.

Total fertility rates by OECD member countries, 2000–2020
Total fertility rates by OECD member countries, 2000–2020

Figure 3.

Correlation between TFR and FLFP for Italy and Sweden, 2000–2020
Correlation between TFR and FLFP for Italy and Sweden, 2000–2020

Figure 4.

Total fertility rates in the selected countries, 2000–2020
Total fertility rates in the selected countries, 2000–2020

Figure 5.

Cross-sectional and time-series association between total fertility rate and female labour force participation Source: Author's calculation based on OECD (2022)
Cross-sectional and time-series association between total fertility rate and female labour force participation Source: Author's calculation based on OECD (2022)

Linear random intercept model (maximum likelihood) with TFR as the dependent variable

Between-Country Effect Within-Country Effect Absolute Difference (Within-Between)
Coef. SE p Coef. SE p Coef. SE p
Total Fertility Rate (t–1) – – – 0.92 0.018 0.001 – – –
Female Labour Force Participation Rate 0.008 0.004 0.05 −0.0001 0.001 0.87 0.005 0.004 0.190
Expenditure on family in cash 0.08 0.053 0.12 0.026 0.011 0.02 0.072 0.047 0.120
Mean Age at Birth −0.009 0.04 0.82 0.028 0.007 0.001 −0.037 0.033 0.260
Gender Wage Gap −0.001 0.004 0.70 0.002 0.0008 0.01 −0.007 0.003 0.047
Expenditure on family in-kind 0.204 0.084 0.01 −0.051 0.018 0.005 0.208 0.056 0.001
Female Part-Time Employment Rate 0.002 0.003 0.34 0.0007 0.001 0.48 0.003 0.002 0.102
TFR in 2000 0.289 0.129 0.02 – – – – – –
Share of women (25–64) with tertiary education 0.003 0.003 0.20 −0.002 0.0007 0.001 0.008 0.002 0.003
Regions
“Old” Europe 0.010 0.075 0.89 – – – – – –
Former Socialist block 0.058 0.123 0.64 – – – – – –
Scandinavian −0.097 0.126 0.44 – – – – – –
Mediterranean 0.088 0.122 0.47 – – –
Observations 587
p (Level-2 Error / Total Error) 0.70
Rho 0.8652498
LR Test (H0: Level-2 Error=0) 960.95, p=<.001

Comparison of estimates between models

Statistical models Fixed Effects Linear random intercept
Variables Coef. SE p Between/within Coef. SE p
TFR(t–1) 0.917 0.018 0.001 TFR (t–1) 0.92 0.018 0.001
FLFP –0.0001 0.001 0.89 FLFP_bw 0.008 0.004 0.05
FLFP_wi –0.0001 0.001 0.87
Share of women (aged 25–64) with tertiary education –0.002 0.0007 0.001 Share with tertiary_bw 0.003 0.003 0.20
Share with tertiary_wi –0.002 0.0007 0.001
Mean age at birth 0.029 0.007 0.001 Mean age at birth_bw –0.009 0.04 0.82
Mean age at birth_wi 0.028 0.007 0.001
Gender wage gap 0.002 0.0008 0.010 Gender wage gap_bw –0.001 0.004 0.70
Gender wage gap_wi 0.002 0.0008 0.01
Expenditure on family in cash 0.026 0.011 0.02 In cash_bw 0.08 0.053 0.12
In cash_wi 0.026 0.011 0.02
Expenditure on family in-kind –0.05 0.018 0.006 In-kind_bw 0.204 0.084 0.01
In-kind_wi –0.051 0.018 0.005
Female part-time employment rate 0.0007 0.001 0.484 Part-time_bw 0.002 0.003 0.34
Part-time_wi 0.0007 0.001 0.48
TFR in 2000 – – – TFR in 2000 0.289 0.129 0.02
“Old” Europe – – – “Old” Europe 0.010 0.075 0.89
Former Socialist block – – – Former Socialist block 0.058 0.123 0.64
Scandinavian – – – Scandinavian –0.097 0.126 0.44
Mediterranean – – – Mediterranean 0.088 0.122 0.47
rho | 0.97102756 rho | 0.8652498

j.ceej-2023-0015.tab.008

Notation Definitions
TFR Total fertility rate
FLFP Female labour force participation
FE Fixed effects method
OECD The organization for economic co-operation and development
SE Standard errors
S.D. Standard deviations
Min Minimum
Max Maximum
GDP Gross domestic product
ITS Interrupted time-series analysis
GFC Global financial crises
HDI Human development index
AUS Australia
AUT Austria
BEL Belgium
CAN Canada
CZE Czech Republic
DEU Deutschland
DNK Denmark
ESP Espana
EST Estonia
FIN Finland
FRA France
GBR Great Britan
GRC Grrecce
HUN Hungary
IRL Republic of Ireland
ISL Iceland
ITA Italy
JPN Japan
KOR Republic of Korea
LTU Lithuania
LUX Luxemburg
LVA Latvia
NLD Netherland
NOR Norway
NZL New Zeland
POL Poland
PRT Portugal
SVK Slovakia
SVN Slovenia
SWE Sweden
SWI Switzerland
USA United States of America

Fixed effects (FE) with TFR as the dependent variable

Effect Coef. SE p
Total Fertility Rate (t–1)*** 0.917 0.018 0.001
Female Labour force participation –0.0001 0.001 0.893
Expenditure on family in cash** 0.026 0.011 0.02
Mean Age at Birth*** 0.029 0.007 0.001
Gender Wage Gap** 0.002 0.0008 0.01
Expenditure on family in-kind** –0.05 0.018 0.006
Share of women (25–64) with tertiary education*** –0.002 0.0007 0.001
Female Part-Time Employment 0.0007 0.001 0.484

The effect of the 2008 global financial crisis

Coef. SE p
The global financial crises –0.026 0.007 0.001
The trend in TFR before GFC 0.007 0.001 0.001
The trend in TFR after GFC –0.012 0.001 0.001

Estimated country level residual (uij), their associated standard errors, (uijse) and ranking

id u0 u0se u0rank country
12 0.3136998 0.021553 1 ISL
8 0.3063421 0.019987 2 FRA
3 0.230887 0.019987 3 BEL
13 0.146161 0.019987 4 IRL
33 0.1302929 0.022163 5 LTU
1 0.1065629 0.019987 5 AUS
14 0.0802455 0.019987 6 ITA
4 0.0779239 0.019987 7 CAN
10 0.0641127 0.019987 8 GRC
25 0.0615938 0.019987 9 SWE
32 0.0523875 0.019987 10 LVA
27 0.0509602 0.019987 11 GBR
24 0.050717 0.019987 12 ESP
11 0.0450133 0.019987 13 HUN
19 0.0381806 0.033967 14 NZL
31 0.0365195 0.02047 15 SVN
5 –0.0034718 0.019987 16 CZE
15 –0.0157073 0.019987 17 JPN
18 –0.0212104 0.019987 18 NLD
29 –0.0649783 0.019987 19 EST
6 –0.0719666 0.019987 20 DNK
23 –0.0905423 0.019987 21 SVK
9 –0.0953914 0.019987 22 GER
21 –0.1052208 0.019987 23 POL
20 –0.1343703 0.022829 24 NOR
7 –0.1689568 0.020991 25 FIN
17 –0.1751024 0.022163 26 LUX
2 –0.1796078 0.022163 27 AUT
22 –0.1950752 0.019987 28 PRT
16 –0.2069601 0.019987 29 KOR
26 –0.2630384 0.019987 30 SWI
28 – – 32 USA

Correlation between TFR and between/within-country effect of FLFP for the 2000–2010 and 2011–2020 periods separately

2000–2010
Coef. SE p
FLFP between 0.019 0.005 0.001
FLFP within 0.0162 0.002 0.001
2011–2020
Coef. SE p
FLFP between 0.016 0.003 0.001
FLFP within –0.007 0.003 0.022

Summary statistics

Variable Observations Mean Standard Deviation Minimum Maximum
TFR 693 1.62 0.34 0.86 3.11
FLFP 693 67.45 7.42 46.3 84.01
Mean age at birth 693 30 1.18 26.60 33.2
Gender wage gap 693 15.04 7.6 0.38 41.65
Share of women (ages 25–64) with tertiary education 652 33.91 11.77 9.06 66.45
Public expenditure on family in cash as % of GDP 693 20.42 5.02 4.41 32.03
Public expenditure on family in-kind as % of GDP 693 62 8.7 38.90 84.08
Part-time employment rate 672 23.84 12.87 2.32 61.14
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