Expectations of older workers regarding their exit from the labour market and its realization

Filip Pertold; Miroslava Federičová

Open Access

Expectations of older workers regarding their exit from the labour market and its realization

Filip Pertold

and

Miroslava Federičová

| Jul 13, 2022

Central European Economic Journal

Volume 9 (2022): Issue 56 (January 2022)

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Cite

Page range: 93 - 112

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2022-0007

Keywords
labour supply, expectations, retirement age, SHARE

© 2022 Filip Pertold et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Employment Rate in the 55–64 Age Group as a Percent of the Population in the Czech RepublicSource: Eurostat (LFS, Employment and activity by sex and age)

Share of Employed People for a Given Age in Years 2007 and 2017 in the Czech RepublicNote. For comparison purposes, there also are data for Germany in 2017.Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Proportion of Employed in Relation to the Subjective Expected Age of Receiving a Retirement PensionSource: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Employment Rates of Respondents With Limitations in Daily Activities Across Respondents’ Ages (Czech Republic and Germany)Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Employment Rate for Highly vs. Low-skilled Men Across Respondents’ Ages in 2007 and 2017 in the Czech RepublicNote. For comparison purposes, there also are data for Germany in 2017.Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Share of Individuals with High Expectations of Working at the Age of 63 (International Comparison).Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Share of Individuals With High Expectations of Working at the Age of 63, by the Type of Occupation and the Highest Level of Educational Attainment (Men)Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Share of Those Actually Working of Those Who Declared a High Expectation of Working in the Previous PeriodNote: The figure shows the average values together for working women and men.Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Reasons for Which Respondents RetiredSource: SHARE Waves 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6 (own calculations)

Share of Age Groups of Men in Newly Granted Old-age Pensions, Year 2018 (Czech Republic)Note: Figure values are expressed for regular and early retirementSource: Own calculations based on the statistical yearbook (CSSA)

Descriptive Statistics of the Sample of SHARE Data

	Czechia	Germany	All other countries
Average expectations of working at the age of 63 (%)	48.17	45.39	43.77
Average expectations of working at the age of 63 (%)	(37.87)	(39.97)	(38.52)
Share of respondents with high expectations of working¹ (%)	35.14	34.44	31.96
Share of respondents with high expectations of working¹ (%)	(46.00)	(47.16)	(45.27)
Expected statutory retirement age	61.2	64	63.4
Expected statutory retirement age	(2.21)	(2.11)	(2.89)
Share of employed	0.730	0.807	0.774
Share of employed	(0.347)	(0.330)	(0.335)
Average age	56.98	56.79	56.98
Average age	(3.347)	(3.524)	(3.561)
White-collar occupation²	0.595	0.724	0.668
White-collar occupation²	(0.486)	(0.442)	(0.466)
Primary education	0.0700	0.00469	0.107
Primary education	(0.255)	(0.0684)	(0.309)
Lower secondary	0.299	0.0606	0.155
Lower secondary	(0.458)	(0.239)	(0.361)
Higher secondary	0.455	0.537	0.368
Higher secondary	(0.498)	(0.499)	(0.482)
Tertiary education	0.176	0.398	0.370
Tertiary education	(0.381)	(0.490)	(0.483)
Share of respondents with some health limitation in their daily activities	0.315	0.326	0.236
	(0.372)	(0.368)	(0.339)
Observations	2,071	2,344	24,793

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (Probit Estimation of Main Model).

Probit	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Czech Republic	1.143^***	1.054^***	1.035^***	0.658^***
	(0.082)	(0.084)	(0.085)	(0.092)
Germany	0.302^***	0.341^***	0.316^***	0.259^***
	(0.084)	(0.086)	(0.087)	(0.088)
Denmark	0.036	0.050	0.038	0.119
	(0.083)	(0.084)	(0.084)	(0.085)
Italy	0.510^***	0.377^***	0.348^***	0.151
	(0.096)	(0.098)	(0.099)	(0.102)
Spain	0.294^***	0.107	0.071	0.068
	(0.092)	(0.098)	(0.098)	(0.100)
France	0.746^***	0.691^***	0.673^***	0.347^***
	(0.106)	(0.108)	(0.108)	(0.115)
Belgium	0.478^***	0.505^***	0.495^***	0.414^***
	(0.094)	(0.095)	(0.095)	(0.097)
The Netherlands	0.298^**	0.288^**	0.335^**	0.407^***
	(0.146)	(0.146)	(0.147)	(0.147)
Lower secondary education		−0.166^*	−0.184^*	−0.195^*
Lower secondary education		(0.100)	(0.100)	(0.102)
Higher secondary education		−0.235^**	−0.252^***	−0.266^***
Higher secondary education		(0.095)	(0.096)	(0.097)
Tertiary education		−0.549^***	−0.559^***	−0.523^***
Tertiary education		(0.099)	(0.099)	(0.101)
White-collar occupation		−0.103^*	−0.102^*	−0.113^*
White-collar occupation		(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.059)
Good health			−0.214^***	−0.204^***
Good health			(0.048)	(0.048)
Expected retirement age				−0.154^***
Expected retirement age				(0.014)
_cons	−0.817^***	−0.381^***	−0.252^**	9.653^***
	(0.057)	(0.102)	(0.107)	(0.935)
N	3255	3255	3255	3255
R²

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (Linear Probability Model)*

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Czech Republic	0.421^***	0.383^***	0.374^***	0.245^***
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.030)
Germany	0.096^***	0.107^***	0.097^***	0.077^***
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)
Denmark	0.010	0.013	0.008	0.030
	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)
Italy	0.173^***	0.123^***	0.112^***	0.053
	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)
Spain	0.094^***	0.026	0.014	0.013
	(0.031)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)
France	0.265^***	0.240^***	0.233^***	0.127^***
	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)
Belgium	0.160^***	0.166^***	0.161^***	0.134^***
	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.031)
The Netherlands	0.095^*	0.087^*	0.102^**	0.117^**
	(0.050)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.048)
Control variables		X	X	X
Education and occupation
			X	X
Health status
Expected retirement age				X
Year	X	X	X	X
Number of observations	3255	3255	3255	3255
R²	0.086	0.107	0.112	0.145

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (LPM)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Czech Republic	0.421^***	0.383^***	0.374^***	0.245^***
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.030)
Germany	0.096^***	0.107^***	0.097^***	0.077^***
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)
Denmark	0.010	0.013	0.008	0.030
	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)
Italy	0.173^***	0.123^***	0.112^***	0.053
	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)
Spain	0.094^***	0.026	0.014	0.013
	(0.031)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)
France	0.265^***	0.240^***	0.233^***	0.127^***
	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)
Belgium	0.160^***	0.166^***	0.161^***	0.134^***
	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.031)
The Netherlands	0.095^*	0.087^*	0.102^**	0.117^**
	(0.050)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.048)
Lower secondary education		−0.060^*	−0.066^*	−0.060^*
Lower secondary education		(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.034)
Higher secondary Education		−0.086^***	−0.092^***	−0.085^***
Higher secondary Education		(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.032)
Tertiary education		−0.189^***	−0.191^***	−0.166^***
Tertiary education		(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.033)
White-collar occupation		−0.038^*	−0.038^*	−0.041^**
White-collar occupation		(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)
Good health			−0.071^***	−0.067^***
Good health			(0.016)	(0.016)
Expected retirement age				−0.049^***
Expected retirement age				(0.004)
_cons	0.207^***	0.367^***	0.412^***	3.537^***
	(0.018)	(0.035)	(0.036)	(0.280)
N	3255	3255	3255	3255
R²	0.086	0.107	0.112	0.145

Descriptive Statistics, All Countries

	Germany	Czechia	Sweden	Denmark	Italy	Spain	France	Belgium	The Netherlands
Average expectations of working at the age of 63 (%)	38.96	45.26	51.93	41.89	41.13	55.44	17.90	22.03	19.61
Average expectations of working at the age of 63 (%)	(41.67)	(40.45)	(41.00)	(41.32)	(40.61)	(38.69)	(31.51)	(34.56)	(33.85)
Share of respondents with high expectations of working (%)	30.46	34.38	44.13	34.08	31	43.65	11.28	15.26	15.22
Share of respondents with high expectations of working (%)	(46.05)	(47.53)	(49.68)	(47.42)	(46.29)	(49.64)	(31.65)	(35.98)	(35.96)
Share of employed	0.438	0.185	0.667	0.474	0.367	0.504	0.160	0.225	0.280
Share of employed	(0.496)	(0.389)	(0.471)	(0.500)	(0.482)	(0.500)	(0.367)	(0.418)	(0.450)
White-collar occupation	0.734	0.582	0.824	0.797	0.582	0.528	0.701	0.707	0.783
White-collar occupation	(0.442)	(0.494)	(0.381)	(0.402)	(0.494)	(0.500)	(0.458)	(0.455)	(0.413)
Primary education	0	0.0770	0.0721	0.0379	0.242	0.354	0.212	0.100	0.0676
Primary education	(0)	(0.267)	(0.259)	(0.191)	(0.428)	(0.479)	(0.409)	(0.301)	(0.251)
Lower secondary education	0.0761	0.320	0.165	0.0702	0.243	0.268	0.0793	0.219	0.321
Lower secondary education	(0.265)	(0.467)	(0.371)	(0.256)	(0.429)	(0.443)	(0.270)	(0.414)	(0.468)
Higher secondary education	0.468	0.427	0.296	0.383	0.323	0.172	0.405	0.317	0.266
Higher secondary education	(0.499)	(0.495)	(0.457)	(0.486)	(0.468)	(0.377)	(0.491)	(0.465)	(0.442)
Tertiary education	0.456	0.177	0.467	0.509	0.192	0.206	0.304	0.364	0.345
Tertiary education	(0.498)	(0.382)	(0.499)	(0.500)	(0.394)	(0.405)	(0.460)	(0.481)	(0.476)
Expected retirement age	63.7	61.2	64.2	65.4	62	64	60	62.3	65.05
Expected retirement age	(2.08)	(2.19)	(2.00)	(1.26)	(3.31)	(2.67)	(2.43)	(2.77)	(1.67)
Good health	0.423	0.454	0.559	0.532	0.438	0.420	0.492	0.543	0.754
Good health	(0.494)	(0.498)	(0.497)	(0.499)	(0.497)	(0.494)	(0.500)	(0.498)	(0.431)
Observations	788	701	818	898	600	559	807	1055	414

eISSN:: 2543-6821
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Expectations of older workers regarding their exit from the labour market and its realization

Published Online: Jul 13, 2022

Page range: 93 - 112

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2022-0007

Keywords
labour supply, expectations, retirement age, SHARE

© 2022 Filip Pertold et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

Figure A1

Descriptive Statistics of the Sample of SHARE Data

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (Probit Estimation of Main Model).

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (Linear Probability Model)*

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (LPM)

Descriptive Statistics, All Countries

Expectations of older workers regarding their exit from the labour market and its realization

Published Online: Jul 13, 2022

Page range: 93 - 112

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2022-0007

Keywordslabour supply, expectations, retirement age, SHARE

© 2022 Filip Pertold et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

Figure A1

Descriptive Statistics of the Sample of SHARE Data

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (Probit Estimation of Main Model).

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (Linear Probability Model)*

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (LPM)

Descriptive Statistics, All Countries

Keywords
labour supply, expectations, retirement age, SHARE