<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>This article primarily aims to estimate the impact of the Armenian revolution and test the hypothesis, that is, the benefits of revolution and establishment of democracy can be seen even in the first year after the political change. To calculate the short-term net surplus of the revolution, we estimated the difference between the projection of Armenian economic activity for the four quarters after the revolution, using only pre-revolutionary (assuming there was no revolution) and real data for the same period after the revolution. Using deep neural network models, such as recurrent neural networks and convolutional neural networks (CNN), we compared prediction accuracy with structural econometrics, such as autoregressive integrated moving average and error correction model, using pre-revolutionary data (2000Q1–2018Q1) for Armenia and combinations of models using an ensembling mechanism. As a result, CNN overperformed the rest of the models. The CNN simulation on post-revolutionary data indicates that during the period 2018-Q2–2019-Q1, Armenia gained approximately 850 million EUR in terms of GDP, thanks to the revolution and the new government. Moreover, out of seven models, the five best models in terms of accuracy indicated that the revolution had no negative impact on the Armenian economy, as the actual values were within or above the 95% confidence interval of the prediction.</p></abstract>

This article primarily aims to estimate the impact of the Armenian revolution and test the hypothesis, that is, the benefits of revolution and establishment of democracy can be seen even in the first year after the political change. To calculate the short-term net surplus of the revolution, we estimated the difference between the projection of Armenian economic activity for the four quarters after the revolution, using only pre-revolutionary (assuming there was no revolution) and real data for the same period after the revolution. Using deep neural network models, such as recurrent neural networks and convolutional neural networks (CNN), we compared prediction accuracy with structural econometrics, such as autoregressive integrated moving average and error correction model, using pre-revolutionary data (2000Q1–2018Q1) for Armenia and combinations of models using an ensembling mechanism. As a result, CNN overperformed the rest of the models. The CNN simulation on post-revolutionary data indicates that during the period 2018-Q2–2019-Q1, Armenia gained approximately 850 million EUR in terms of GDP, thanks to the revolution and the new government. Moreover, out of seven models, the five best models in terms of accuracy indicated that the revolution had no negative impact on the Armenian economy, as the actual values were within or above the 95% confidence interval of the prediction.

The benefits of the Velvet Revolution in Armenia: Estimation of the short-term economic gains using deep neural networks

Central European Economic Journal

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

This article primarily aims to estimate the impact of the Armenian revolution and test the hypothesis, that is, the benefits of revolution and establishment of...

	RMSE	MAE	MedAE	R²	SD
CNN	58266.74	46161.45	34190.78	0.9778	13733.60

Stacking linear	58119.65	46434.29	48105.92	0.9780	13698.93

SARIMA	66447.39	47783.78	36712.05	0.9712	15661.80

Stacking LASSO	59349.38	47907.44	48731.62	0.9770	13988.78

Simple average	70968.70	57434.54	48855.18	0.9671	16727.48

LSTM	102526.21	77680.84	56860.31	0.9314	24165.66
ECM	128851.99	109558.86	101529.37	0.8917	30370.71

The benefits of the Velvet Revolution in Armenia: Estimation of the short-term economic gains using deep neural networks

Published Online: Jul 08, 2020

Page range: 286 - 303

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2019-0018

Keywords
Armenia, revolution, GDP, neural networks, ensembling mechanism

© 2019 Yervand Nahapetyan, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Figure 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

Model error statistics

The benefits of the Velvet Revolution in Armenia: Estimation of the short-term economic gains using deep neural networks

Published Online: Jul 08, 2020

Page range: 286 - 303

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2019-0018

KeywordsArmenia, revolution, GDP, neural networks, ensembling mechanism

© 2019 Yervand Nahapetyan, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Figure 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

Model error statistics

Keywords
Armenia, revolution, GDP, neural networks, ensembling mechanism