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In this research a closed system of testing and vaccination is considered using modified deterministic modeling of Covid-19 cases in Nigeria. A disease infection flow transmission diagram was constructed for a model with nine population compartments, represented as SNSVETeQIAISILR, and the assumptions governing the model were presented for the study. A set of nonlinear deterministic differential equations was obtained and tested for positive invariance, positivity of the system solution, boundedness of solution of the equation system, equilibrium point of system stability, endemic equilibrium point, and existence of endemic global stability. The simulated results showed that the equilibrium stability point of the system exists at a basic reproduction number Ro of 0.0000295, and the model estimates show a positive contribution of population recruitment rate (Λ), transmission rate from infected (asymptomatic – β1, symptomatic – β2, undetected but exposed - ф) population, testing rate (βV), (σ), population exposure, exposed tested becoming infected (ρ), quarantine, and isolation to promoting the Covid-19 epidemic infection in Nigeria. Following the findings, the following are recommended: early closure of the country’s borders to check increasing recruitment rate, introduction of social distancing, wearing of nose &amp; mouth masks, early commencement of free testing for the disease (Covid-19), introduction of movement restrictions (close-down/lock-down), compulsory Covid-19 vaccination for every vulnerable person in the population, effective government quarantine and isolation (treatment) centers, and immediate engagement of both medical and non-medical researchers to find lasting solutions.
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In this research a closed system of testing and vaccination is considered using modified deterministic modeling of Covid-19 cases in Nigeria. A disease infection flow transmission diagram was constructed for a model with nine population compartments, represented as SNSVETeQIAISILR, and the assumptions governing the model were presented for the study. A set of nonlinear deterministic differential equations was obtained and tested for positive invariance, positivity of the system solution, boundedness of solution of the equation system, equilibrium point of system stability, endemic equilibrium point, and existence of endemic global stability. The simulated results showed that the equilibrium stability point of the system exists at a basic reproduction number Ro of 0.0000295, and the model estimates show a positive contribution of population recruitment rate (Λ), transmission rate from infected (asymptomatic – β1, symptomatic – β2, undetected but exposed - ф) population, testing rate (βV), (σ), population exposure, exposed tested becoming infected (ρ), quarantine, and isolation to promoting the Covid-19 epidemic infection in Nigeria. Following the findings, the following are recommended: early closure of the country’s borders to check increasing recruitment rate, introduction of social distancing, wearing of nose & mouth masks, early commencement of free testing for the disease (Covid-19), introduction of movement restrictions (close-down/lock-down), compulsory Covid-19 vaccination for every vulnerable person in the population, effective government quarantine and isolation (treatment) centers, and immediate engagement of both medical and non-medical researchers to find lasting solutions.

Modified deterministic modeling of Covid-19 in Nigeria: a case of a closed system

Biometrical Letters

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

In this research a closed system of testing and vaccination is considered using modified deterministic modeling of Covid-19 cases in Nigeria. A disease...

Modified deterministic modeling of Covid-19 in Nigeria: a case of a closed system

Published Online: Jul 29, 2024

Page range: 63 - 84

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/bile-2024-0005

Keywords
deterministic modeling, Covid-19, vaccination, transmission, reproduction number, sensitivity analysis

© 2024 A. D. Aromolaran et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Modified deterministic modeling of Covid-19 in Nigeria: a case of a closed system

Published Online: Jul 29, 2024

Page range: 63 - 84

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/bile-2024-0005

Keywordsdeterministic modeling, Covid-19, vaccination, transmission, reproduction number, sensitivity analysis

© 2024 A. D. Aromolaran et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Keywords
deterministic modeling, Covid-19, vaccination, transmission, reproduction number, sensitivity analysis