<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>Exploring the evolutionary process of the concept of science and technology in modern Chinese society is conducive to the innovation of the current path of science education popularization and scientific and technological literacy enhancement. In this paper, we construct a sampling selection algorithm using Bayesian and MCMC and then design a parameter derivation model. Assuming the model prior distribution hyperparameters and using the likelihood function to derive the specific form of the posterior probability distribution, an approximate integral calculation is carried out in order to directly derive the parameters to be estimated, and the BVAR-MCMC model is constructed. Using the model to analyze the temporal changes in the evolution of scientific and technological concepts in modern China, it is finally found that the changes in social and technological concepts during the Republican period were even stronger than those in the late Qing period. Influenced by the increasing scale of cross-cultural exchanges due to the gradual opening up of the gateway, cross-cultural open exchanges have the highest impulse value and the longest duration on the evolution of scientific and technological concepts, with the impulse of the Late Qing and the Republic of China phases above 1, and the duration of the positive influence covers the whole time series. The impulse values of the late Qing and the Republic of China are 2.68 and 3.59, respectively, and the education popularization rate, economic development level, the speed of technological life progress, and the degree of civilization and freedom of the social atmosphere have different degrees of influence on the evolution of scientific and technological concepts in the time series of modern history. This study innovates the statistical research method for modern history and conducts a pioneering exploratory study on the evolutionary process of modern social ideas change.</p>
</abstract>

Exploring the evolutionary process of the concept of science and technology in modern Chinese society is conducive to the innovation of the current path of science education popularization and scientific and technological literacy enhancement. In this paper, we construct a sampling selection algorithm using Bayesian and MCMC and then design a parameter derivation model. Assuming the model prior distribution hyperparameters and using the likelihood function to derive the specific form of the posterior probability distribution, an approximate integral calculation is carried out in order to directly derive the parameters to be estimated, and the BVAR-MCMC model is constructed. Using the model to analyze the temporal changes in the evolution of scientific and technological concepts in modern China, it is finally found that the changes in social and technological concepts during the Republican period were even stronger than those in the late Qing period. Influenced by the increasing scale of cross-cultural exchanges due to the gradual opening up of the gateway, cross-cultural open exchanges have the highest impulse value and the longest duration on the evolution of scientific and technological concepts, with the impulse of the Late Qing and the Republic of China phases above 1, and the duration of the positive influence covers the whole time series. The impulse values of the late Qing and the Republic of China are 2.68 and 3.59, respectively, and the education popularization rate, economic development level, the speed of technological life progress, and the degree of civilization and freedom of the social atmosphere have different degrees of influence on the evolution of scientific and technological concepts in the time series of modern history. This study innovates the statistical research method for modern history and conducts a pioneering exploratory study on the evolutionary process of modern social ideas change.

A time-series analysis of the evolution of scientific and technological concepts in the change of social thinking in modern China

Ningbo University of Finance and Economics

Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Exploring the evolutionary process of the concept of science and technology in modern Chinese society is conducive to the innovation of the current path of...

A time-series analysis of the evolution of scientific and technological concepts in the change of social thinking in modern China

Published Online: Aug 05, 2024

Page range: -

Received: Apr 15, 2024

Accepted: Jul 02, 2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2024-2225

Keywords
Bayesian algorithm, MCMC algorithm, Conjugate prior, Sampling simulation, Time series analysis

© 2024 Yong Liu, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

A time-series analysis of the evolution of scientific and technological concepts in the change of social thinking in modern China

Published Online: Aug 05, 2024

Page range: -

Received: Apr 15, 2024

Accepted: Jul 02, 2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2024-2225

KeywordsBayesian algorithm, MCMC algorithm, Conjugate prior, Sampling simulation, Time series analysis

© 2024 Yong Liu, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Keywords
Bayesian algorithm, MCMC algorithm, Conjugate prior, Sampling simulation, Time series analysis