<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The demand for spare parts of weapons and equipment is time-varying and random. It is difficult to predict the demand for spare parts. Therefore, on the basis of gray GM(1,1), a state transition probability matrix based on improved state division is used to establish a demand forecast model for weapon equipment and spare parts. The model not only considers the characteristics of the GM(1,1) model’s strong handling of monotonic sequences, but also extracts the characteristics of random fluctuation response of data through the transformation of the state transition probability matrix, avoiding the phenomenon of the worst prediction results when the maximum probability state is not the actual state. It is proved through experiments that the prediction result based on the improved gray-Markov model is superior to the traditional model and the classic gray-Markov prediction model, and the accuracy of the improved model is about 1.46 times higher than that of the gray model.</p></abstract>

The demand for spare parts of weapons and equipment is time-varying and random. It is difficult to predict the demand for spare parts. Therefore, on the basis of gray GM(1,1), a state transition probability matrix based on improved state division is used to establish a demand forecast model for weapon equipment and spare parts. The model not only considers the characteristics of the GM(1,1) model’s strong handling of monotonic sequences, but also extracts the characteristics of random fluctuation response of data through the transformation of the state transition probability matrix, avoiding the phenomenon of the worst prediction results when the maximum probability state is not the actual state. It is proved through experiments that the prediction result based on the improved gray-Markov model is superior to the traditional model and the classic gray-Markov prediction model, and the accuracy of the improved model is about 1.46 times higher than that of the gray model.

Demand Forecast of Weapon Equipment Spare Parts Based on Improved Gray-Markov Model

International Journal of Advanced Network, Monitoring and Controls

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

The demand for spare parts of weapons and equipment is time-varying and random. It is difficult to predict the demand for spare parts. Therefore, on the basis...

Demand Forecast of Weapon Equipment Spare Parts Based on Improved Gray-Markov Model

Published Online: Oct 14, 2020

Page range: 47 - 56

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/ijanmc-2020-027

Keywords
Grey Theory, Markov Model, Spare Parts Forecast

© 2020 Ou Li et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Demand Forecast of Weapon Equipment Spare Parts Based on Improved Gray-Markov Model

Published Online: Oct 14, 2020

Page range: 47 - 56

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/ijanmc-2020-027

KeywordsGrey Theory, Markov Model, Spare Parts Forecast

© 2020 Ou Li et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Keywords
Grey Theory, Markov Model, Spare Parts Forecast