<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p> Estimating traffic accidents play a vital role to apply road safety procedures. This study proposes Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) models to estimate the number of accidents in Turkey. In the model development, population (P) and the number of vehicles (N) are selected as model parameters. Three model forms, linear, exponential and semi-quadratic models, are developed using DEA with the data covering from 2000 to 2014. Developed models are statistically compared to select the best fit model. The results of the DE models show that the linear model form is suitable to estimate the number of accidents. The statistics of this form is better than other forms in terms of performance criteria which are the Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE). To investigate the performance of linear DE model for future estimations, a ten-year period from 2015 to 2024 is considered. The results obtained from future estimations reveal the suitability of DE method for road safety applications.</p></abstract>

Estimating traffic accidents play a vital role to apply road safety procedures. This study proposes Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) models to estimate the number of accidents in Turkey. In the model development, population (P) and the number of vehicles (N) are selected as model parameters. Three model forms, linear, exponential and semi-quadratic models, are developed using DEA with the data covering from 2000 to 2014. Developed models are statistically compared to select the best fit model. The results of the DE models show that the linear model form is suitable to estimate the number of accidents. The statistics of this form is better than other forms in terms of performance criteria which are the Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE). To investigate the performance of linear DE model for future estimations, a ten-year period from 2015 to 2024 is considered. The results obtained from future estimations reveal the suitability of DE method for road safety applications.

Estimating Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

Selected Scientific Papers - Journal of Civil Engineering

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

{"article-title":"Estimating Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Differential Evolution Algorithm"}

Estimating traffic accidents play a vital role to apply road safety procedures. This study proposes Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) models to estimate...

Estimating Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

Published Online: Jul 22, 2017

Page range: 75 - 84

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/sspjce-2017-0008

Keywords
Traffic accident models, Differential Evolution Algorithm, Road Safety, Turkey

© 2017 Ali Payıdar Akgüngör, published by De Gruyter Open

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Estimating Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

Published Online: Jul 22, 2017

Page range: 75 - 84

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/sspjce-2017-0008

KeywordsTraffic accident models, Differential Evolution Algorithm, Road Safety, Turkey

© 2017 Ali Payıdar Akgüngör, published by De Gruyter Open

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Keywords
Traffic accident models, Differential Evolution Algorithm, Road Safety, Turkey