<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>This article concerns the problem of formulating assumptions in scenario analysis for investments which consist of the renting out of an apartment. The article attempts to indicate the foundations for the formulation of assumptions on the basis of observed retrospective regularities. It includes theoretical considerations regarding scenario design, as well as the results of studies on the formulation, in the past, of quantities which determined or were likely to bring closer estimate the value of the individual explanatory variables for a chosen measure of investment profitability (MIRR<sub>FCFE</sub>). The dynamics of and correlation between the variables were studied. The research was based on quarterly data from local residential real estate markets in Poland (in the six largest cities) in the years 2006 – 2014, as well as on data from the financial market.</p></abstract>

This article concerns the problem of formulating assumptions in scenario analysis for investments which consist of the renting out of an apartment. The article attempts to indicate the foundations for the formulation of assumptions on the basis of observed retrospective regularities. It includes theoretical considerations regarding scenario design, as well as the results of studies on the formulation, in the past, of quantities which determined or were likely to bring closer estimate the value of the individual explanatory variables for a chosen measure of investment profitability (MIRRFCFE). The dynamics of and correlation between the variables were studied. The research was based on quarterly data from local residential real estate markets in Poland (in the six largest cities) in the years 2006 – 2014, as well as on data from the financial market.

Scenario Analysis In The Calculation Of Investment Efficiency–The Problem Of Formulating Assumptions

Faculty of Finance, University of Economics in Wrocław

Real Estate Management and Valuation

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

This article concerns the problem of formulating assumptions in scenario analysis for investments which consist of the renting out of an apartment. The article...

Scenario Analysis In The Calculation Of Investment Efficiency–The Problem Of Formulating Assumptions

Published Online: Oct 05, 2015

Page range: 54 - 64

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/remav-2015-0025

Keywords
real estate market, investment efficiency, scenario analysis

© Iwona Dittmann

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Scenario Analysis In The Calculation Of Investment Efficiency–The Problem Of Formulating Assumptions

Published Online: Oct 05, 2015

Page range: 54 - 64

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/remav-2015-0025

Keywordsreal estate market, investment efficiency, scenario analysis

© Iwona Dittmann

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Keywords
real estate market, investment efficiency, scenario analysis