Annual income above one income base amount | Business income above 0.25 denotes significance at 10% | |
---|---|---|
Constant | 0.4371 significance at 1%. | 0.0301 significance at 1%. |
p (before reform = 0, otherwise 1) | 0.0765 significance at 1%. | 0.0122 significance at 1%. |
t (Age 66 = 1, otherwise 0) | -0.3283 significance at 1%. | -0.0143 significance at 1%. |
Reform ( | 0.0313 significance at 1%. | 0.0106 significance at 1%. |
Highest education secondary school | 0.0412 significance at 1%. | -0.0034 |
Highest education university | 0.1615 significance at 1%. | 0.0098 significance at 1%. |
Married | -0.0316 significance at 1%. | 0.0067 significance at 1%. |
Male | -0.0140 denotes significance at 10% | 0.0301 significance at 1%. |
Married and male | 0.1103 significance at 1%. | 0.0175 significance at 1%. |
Foreign-born | -0.1168 significance at 1%. | -0.0249 significance at 1%. |
Self-employed | 0.2883 significance at 1%. | —— |
Self-employed and foreign-born | 0.0874 significance at 1%. | —— |
Medium-sized city | -0.320 significance at 1%. | -0.0048 significance at 5% |
Rural | -0.0364 significance at 1%. | 0.0049 denotes significance at 10% |
Mean for percentage with income in the entire sample | 0.387 | 0.057 |
Mean for percentage with income in the treatment group before the reform | 0.166 | 0.044 |
The estimated reform efect without control variables | 0.0382 significance at 1%. | 0.0117 significance at 1%. |
Variables | Men | Women |
---|---|---|
Intercept | 771.6555*** | 1244.0820*** |
Initial value | 12.5024*** | 10.4820*** |
2010 | 3.2093*** | 2.4360*** |
2011 | 4.0886*** | 3.3542*** |
Age | -25.9246*** | -40.5899*** |
Age2/100 | 21.4813*** | 32.9001*** |
Compulsory school | 1.0436*** | 0.7356*** |
Secondary school | 0.9632*** | 0.5444*** |
Large city | -0.3362*** | -0.3831*** |
Native-born | 0.8478*** | 0.7693*** |
Replacement rate | 1.4188*** | 1.4211*** |
Income above cap | 0.4773*** | 0.1591 |
Reform effect Estimated parameter | Percentage effect in relation to mean, entire sample | Percentage effect in relation to mean, treatment group before the reform | |
---|---|---|---|
0.020 | 3 | 19 | |
Data: LFS, 2001–2010 | |||
Control: 55–64, Treatment: 65–74 | |||
Mean | |||
Entire sample, 60% Rough estimate based on Figure A5 | |||
Treatment group before reform, 10.3% | |||
0.07 | 18 | 47 | |
Data: HF, 2004–2009 | |||
Control: 64, Treatment: 66 | |||
Probit model | |||
Mean | |||
Entire sample, 38.8% Calculated based on Table 7.1 | |||
Treatment group before reform 15% Estimate based on Chart 7.1 | |||
0.015 | 5 | 8 | |
Data: Total population, 2001–2009 | |||
Control: Aged 65 Jan–Feb | |||
Treatment: Aged 65 Nov–Dec | |||
Only individuals with income 1996–2000 | |||
Mean | |||
Entire sample 30.6% | |||
Treatment group before reform 19,3% Calculated based on LINDA data | |||
0.031 | 8 | 19 | |
Data: LINDA, 2004–2011 | |||
Control: 64, Treatment: 66 | |||
Mean | |||
Entire sample 38.7% | |||
Treatment group before reform 16.6% | |||
0.022 | 7 | 13 | |
Data: LINDA, 2004–2011 | (Signifcant at 10%) | ||
Control: Aged 65, Jan–Mar | |||
Treatment: Aged 65, Oct–Dec | |||
Mean | |||
Entire sample 31.4% | |||
Treatment group before reform 16.2% | |||
0.011 | 19 | 24 | |
Data: LINDA 2004–2011 | |||
Self-employed | |||
Control: 64, Treatment: 66 | |||
Mean | |||
Entire sample 5.7% | |||
Treatment group before reform 4.4% |
SEK billions | Percentage change compared with reference alternative | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
No discount | Discount rate 3% | No discount | Discount rate 3% | |
Reference alternative | –7,532 | –5,537 | ||
Increased JSA at 66 | –7,023 | –5,199 | –6.7 | –6.1 |
Increased JSA at 61 | –7,085 | –5,243 | –5.9 | –5.3 |
Women | Men | |
---|---|---|
55–64 | 36.1 | 40.0 |
65–69 | 24.3 | 28.1 |
70–74 | 13.8 | 21.3 |
64 | 66 | |
---|---|---|
Percentage with annual income above one income base amount | 0.53 | 0.22 |
Percentage with business income above 25% of one income base amount | 0.06 | 0.05 |
Percentage highest education compulsory school | 0.31 | 0.34 |
Percentage highest education secondary school | 0.52 | 0.51 |
Percentage highest education university | 0.16 | 0.15 |
Percentage married | 0.76 | 0.75 |
Percentage male | 0.53 | 0.55 |
Percentage foreign-born | 0.12 | 0.12 |
Percentage self-employed | 0.08 | 0.08 |
Percentage residing in a large city | 0.31 | 0.31 |
Percentage residing in a medium- sized city | 0.40 | 0.40 |
Percentage residing in rural area | 0.29 | 0.30 |
Number of individuals in the sample | 47,342 | 41,381 |
Variables | Men | Women |
---|---|---|
Constant | 11.560*** | 11.198*** |
61 | -1.028*** | -1.146*** |
62 | -0.731*** | -0.829*** |
63 | -0.605*** | -0.720*** |
64 | -0.519*** | -0.568*** |
65 | -0.383*** | -0.354*** |
Compulsory school | -0.534*** | -0.339*** |
Secondary school | -0.344*** | -0.212*** |
Large city | 0.103*** | 0.109*** |
Native-born | 0.385*** | 0.250*** |
Replacement rate | 1.010*** | 1.292*** |
Replacement rate2 | -0.173*** | -0.246*** |
Reform effect Estimated parameter | Percentage effect in relation to mean, entire sample | Percentage effect in relation to mean, treatment group before the reform | |
---|---|---|---|
0,06 | 16 | 36 | |
Data: LINDA, 2004–2009 | 0,05 | 13 | 30 |
Control: 64, Treatment: 66 | 0,026 | 7 | 16 |
Probit model evaluated at mean | |||
Probit model, mean of individual values | |||
OLS | |||
Mean: | |||
Entire sample 37.6%** | |||
Treatment group before reform 16.6%*** | |||
0,021 | 5 | 11 | |
Data: LINDA, 2001–2009 | |||
Control: 64, Treatment: 66 | |||
Only individuals with income 1996–2000 | |||
Mean: | |||
Entire sample 39.9% | |||
Treatment group before reform 18,0% | |||
0,024 | 8 | 12 | |
Data: LINDA, 2001–2009 | (Significant at 10%) | ||
Control: age 65 Jan–Mar | |||
Treatment: age 65 Oct–Dec | |||
Only individuals with income 1996–2000 | |||
Mean: | |||
Entire sample 28.6% | |||
Treatment group before reform 19,3% |
Increased JSA for people age 66 and older | Increased JSA for people age 61 and older | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Without behavioral modification, percent (1) | With behavioral modification, percent (2) | Without behavioral modification, percent (3) | With behavioral modification, percent (4) | |
Employment rate | 0 | 13.3 | 0 | 3.8 |
Working hours | 0 | 9.0 | 0 | 5.9 |
Pension income | 0 | -0.2 | 0 | -0.3 |
Labor income | 0 | 6.9 | 0 | 2.9 |
Income tax | -1.0 | -0.3 | -1.8 | -1.3 |
Transfers | 00 | 0 | -0.4 | |
Disposable income | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
VAT | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
Payroll taxes | 0 | 3.7 | 0 | 2.0 |
- | - | - |