1. bookVolume 5 (2016): Issue 3 (September 2016)
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
2336-9205
First Published
11 Mar 2014
Publication timeframe
3 times per year
Languages
English
access type Open Access

Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model

Published Online: 23 Sep 2016
Volume & Issue: Volume 5 (2016) - Issue 3 (September 2016)
Page range: 61 - 78
Received: 06 Apr 2016
Accepted: 25 Jul 2016
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
2336-9205
First Published
11 Mar 2014
Publication timeframe
3 times per year
Languages
English
Abstract

This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic conditions. We further proceed analyzing how well an extended set of indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results show that the use of survey-based indicators as a complement to macroeconomic data work satisfactory well in capturing the business cycle developments in Macedonia.

Keywords

JEL

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