Open Access

Simulated future changes of extreme nutrient loads in a mesoscale agricultural watershed in Bavaria / Simulierte zukünftige Änderungen der Extremwerte für Nährstofffrachten in einem mesoskaligen landwirtschaftlichen Einzugsgebiet in Bayern


The hydrological model SWAT was applied to the upper Altmühl watershed to examine the simulated 10th and 90th percentiles of streamflow, nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N), and total phosphorus loads (TP), using an ensemble of reference climate (1975–2000) and future climate (2046–2070) simulations. A comparison between the two periods showed that in the future, the 90th percentiles of the NO3--N loads increase in all seasons which indicates a trend to increasing diffuse pollution in the mid-term future. Conversely, the 90th percentile TP loads diminished in winter and otherwise remained similar to the reference period. The 10th and 90th percentile changes in the future streamflow followed changes in precipitation, and did not have any apparent influence on extreme nutrient transport events.

Publication timeframe:
4 times per year
Journal Subjects:
Life Sciences, Ecology, other