<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

Current theories support an inverse relationship between the expected return on investment and the associated risk. The DCF valuation method highlights the fact that the value of the company is given by the ratio between the excess cash (at the numerator) and the risk assimilated by the capitalization rate (at the denominator). The modern portfolio theory MPT considers that the proportion of recommended securities is on a parabola in mean-variance space, the risk being assimilated to uncertainty. Practitioners assess the target and the risk (take profit/stop loss) based on the methods of technical analysis. We appreciate that these theories are divergent from each other, disconnected and therefore difficult to unify. Our approach, based on the probabilities associated with each level of future quotations, eliminates the disadvantages of current theories. The answer found is to try to establish as realistically as possible what the chances are that, over a certain period of time, a title will have a certain quotation (or be in a certain range). For reasons somewhat similar to those of sports betting, the conclusion that emerges from the article is that this approach, if well developed, gives superior results to those currently used. In subsequent studies, forecasting methods are to be developed, because we consider them the most important in the investment process.
</abstract>

„Vasile Goldiș” Western University of Arad

Theoretical and empirical underpinnings regarding stock market forecasts and predictions

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

The study analyzed the impact of monetary policy shocks on economic growth in 12 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), using quarterly data from 1980(1) to 2017(4). We employed a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (Panel SVAR) for the modeling of monetary policy transmission shock in the segregated sub-regions of WAMZ and WAEMU. The key results suggest that fluctuations of the monetary policy do not have significant effects on the economic growth but significantly impact the general price level. Moreover, the study finds that the exchange rate is persistently a vital mechanism that significantly influences the variables of the real economy. Our estimates further suggest that there is idiosyncratic evidence found in the results, which is the anomaly of the Price puzzle.
</abstract>

Impact of monetary policy transmission mechanism in West African countries

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

The aim of the study is to assess the current impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the level of household income in modern national economies according to data for 2020. The assessment of five indicators that characterize the opinions of adults living in different countries about a strong decrease, a small decrease, preservation, a small increase and a strong increase in their income in 2020 was considered. The initial data were the results of a survey of the economically active population in 43 countries, in the process of implementing the Global Entrepreneurship Monitoring project. The five indicators were evaluated using the density functions of the normal distribution. It is proved that for the majority (53%) of households, due to the pandemic, there was a decrease in household income. It shows the preservation of income in a significant (40%) number of households in the countries under consideration. It is shown that the increase in income in 2020 was observed only in a small number (less than 4%) of households. It is proved that the values of each of the five indicators under consideration had a significant differentiation by country. The results of our work have a certain theoretical and practical significance for governments and the economically active population. The methodological approach presented in the article can be used to assess the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on household income in 2021.
</abstract>

Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on household income: results of a survey of the economically active population

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

This study investigated Nigeria's economic interactions with China, India, and the USA with a view to identifying the main source of real output shock to Nigeria in the period 1981Q1-2019Q4. The analysis followed the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), which uses the size and direction of normalized generalized forecast error variance decompositions (NGFEVD) of a vector error correction model to track shock propagation among economic entities. The results indicate that China and India are net transmitters of real output shocks to Nigeria. The results also indicate that Nigeria is a net real output shock receiver. The study concludes that Nigerian policymakers should evolve policies that can insulate the economy against real output shock heatwaves from around the world, especially China and India. Such policies should mainly target the diversification of the economy such that crude oil will no longer be the only major source of revenue.
</abstract>

Where do real output shocks to Nigeria mainly emanate from? Empirical analysis of Nigeria-China-India-USA economic interactions

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

The paper examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model in the panel of the most complex economies in the world by considering the ecological footprint as an indicator of environmental degradation and economic complexity - as a variable of interest and expression of structural changes in the economy. The study includes the first 48 complex economies in the world, with positive averages of the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for 1995-2017. The model of cointegrating polynomial regression (CPR) includes also variables with impact on ecological footprints such as globalization, energy intensity and urbanization. The EKC model is validated in the panel of the 48 complex economies, suggesting that these countries have already reached a development stage enabling them to curb the increasing pollution expressed by ecological footprint. Globalization has a mitigating effect while urbanization and energy intensity have an extension effect on ecological footprint. Policy implications are also included.
</abstract>

“Vasile Goldiș” Western University of Arad

The Environmental Kuznets Curve revisited: economic complexity and ecological footprint in the most complex economies of the world

AHEAD OF PRINT

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Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series

 The Journal Studia Universitatis "Vasile Goldiş" Arad. Economic Sciences, ISSN 1584 - 2339 has a long history in contributing to the research in Economics-related fields of interest, since its first edition in 1990.  Until now, the journal has been published annually by "Vasile Goldis" Western University of Arad, at its own Publishing House. Moreover, during the years Studia Universitatis "Vasile Goldiş" Arad. Economic Sciences has been evaluated by the National Council of Scientific Research in Higher Education of Romania in the B+ category, code 792 as recognition of its national visibility.  The principal purpose of the journal is to publish scholarly work in the Economic Sciences, promoting relevant and insightful research in all related fields, within a sound methodological framework. In this journal, the Editorial Board wants to provide high quality articles in the economics field. However, the objective regarding publishing the original contribution in the Economic Sciences filed does not infringe the interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches of the complex economic phenomenon and their connections. In this sense, many articles provide a strong enactment of law regarding the application and enactment the commercial law, civil law and tax law. The research published in the Journal is used to demonstrate the academic medium, students and specialist as the ways in solving different problems tackled by the different articles and authors. The econometric techniques and modelling relationship demonstrate the usefulness of different techniques in the solution of the different problems. Part of the articles published in this Journal are an improving path of the articles sustained at the different conferences organized by the University were different specialist gathered and debated some high relevant and important topics. The results of the research are directed also to some practical organizations in order to increase the practical usage of the economical techniques. Another part of the articles derived from different partial of final results of several research projects, fact that will increase the scientifical relevance. Finally, by using a specific structure of the article, meaning introduction, literature review, methodology, main finding results, discussion and conclusion will improve the understandings of the different research methods used in economic theory and practice in order to evaluate and assess more accurate the soundness of the final results of the research.  Archiving  Sciendo archives the contents of this journal in Portico - digital long-term preservation service of scholarly books, journals and collections.  Plagiarism Policy  The editorial board is participating in a growing community of Similarity Check System's users in order to ensure that the content published is original and trustworthy. Similarity Check is a medium that allows for comprehensive manuscripts screening, aimed to eliminate plagiarism and provide a high standard and quality peer-review process.  Why subscribe and read   High quality articles in the area of economics Articles published after a serious double blind review process with prestigious national and international reviewers Articles having a powerful economic research insight for both theoretical, econometrical and practical perspective Multidisciplinary, Transdisciplinary and Interdisciplinary approach of the articles   Why submit   The rejection rate is approximately 80% The Editors provide fast route for the publication process and fully access to DeGruyter e-technology International Scientific Board with high - quality research specialists around the world