<abstract><title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>This paper compares three lists of basic ‘stylized facts’ of global economic growth and proposes a list of five ‘stylized trends’ that describe the main developments of the global economy in the 20th century. The author’s main purpose is to answer the question whether, in the light of the contemporary growth theory and demographic forecasts, these trends are likely to continue in the 21st century. Considering this theory, it is argued that the global economy rate of growth of the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to continue to be high in the first half of the current century, but decline significantly in the second half. This paper offers forecasts for the average growth rates during this century, and the levels by its end, of the per capita GDP for the technology frontier area (TFA) of the world, and for the countries outside the TFA. According to these forecasts, the strong divergence trend of the 19th and 20th centuries will be replaced by a strong convergence between the TFA and the other countries during the 21st century.</abstract>

The Global Economy in the 21st Century: Will the Trends of the 20th Century Continue?

<abstract><title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>This study investigates the profitability of an algorithmic trading strategy based on training SVM model to identify cryptocurrencies with high or low predicted returns. A tail set is defined to be a group of coins whose volatility-adjusted returns are in the highest or the lowest quintile. Each cryptocurrency is represented by a set of six technical features. SVM is trained on historical tail sets and tested on the current data. The classifier is chosen to be a nonlinear support vector machine. The portfolio is formed by ranking coins using the SVM output. The highest ranked coins are used for long positions to be included in the portfolio for one reallocation period. The following metrics were used to estimate the portfolio profitability: %ARC (the annualized rate of change), %ASD (the annualized standard deviation of daily returns), MDD (the maximum drawdown coefficient), IR1, IR2 (the information ratio coefficients). The performance of the SVM portfolio is compared to the performance of the four benchmark strategies based on the values of the information ratio coefficient IR1, which quantifies the risk-weighted gain. The question of how sensitive the portfolio performance is to the parameters set in the SVM model is also addressed in this study.</abstract>

Robustness of Support Vector Machines in Algorithmic Trading on Cryptocurrency Market

<abstract><title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>An important aspect of economic integration of the European Union is price convergence on digital single market. In this study, we propose a novel way to measure price dispersion in the e-commerce industry, using a custom made web-scraping tool. We target all the major price comparisons sites in the 26 EU member states, which enables us to collect price signals from thousands of retail shops operating on-line. We analyse pricing data of 182 branded products sold on-line across the EU, representing the most popular categories: fashion, consumer electronics, gaming and software, and cosmetics. We find considerable dispersion of both pre and post-vat on-line prices ranging from 20% to 40%, depending on the product category. The observed on-line price dispersion is driven by both cost factors and the level of per capita income, which is consistent with the view that producers or large distributors might engage in strategic price discrimination induced by income heterogeneity.At first look, our results point to the unexplored potential for cross-border trade, which could be released by policy interventions with regards to delivery, payment or law harmonization. However, under strategic price discrimination, reduced costs of arbitrage for consumers might induce discriminating firms to lower the magnitude of price dispersion between high and low income countries, bringing adverse welfare changes of a priori unknown net effect.</abstract>

What Drives Price Dispersion in the European E-commerce Industry?

<abstract><title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>We empirically investigate the interaction between internal and external reference prices on stated payments in a Pay-What-You-Want (PWYW) scheme. Using results of a vignette experiment with e-books, we show that when an external reference price provided is lower than respondents’ internal reference prices, the average of PWYW payments significantly decreases compared with a situation in which the external reference price is not provided. <italic>The relationship is the opposite when the external reference price provided to respondents is higher than their internal reference prices</italic>. In such a case, upward pressure is created, thus the average of PWYW payments increases. These results remain true when we control for expected quality of e-books. Additionally, we find that when the external reference price is not provided, the size of PWYW payments depends positively on individual factors such as risk-taking propensity and perceived costs of e-book production.</abstract>

The effects of individual internal versus external reference prices on consumer decisions for pay-what-you-want payments

<abstract><title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>In this paper, we study the export performance determinants of firms in selected MENA countries, both jointly and separately, as well as compare them with the performance of firms from countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The analysis is based on information about individual firms found in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and World Bank Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) V database, covering the period 2011-2014. We estimate the probability of exports, while controlling for country- and sector-specific effects, using the probit model. We find that, in both groups of countries, similar variables affect firm export performance. Our empirical results obtained for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and CEE countries indicate that the probability of exporting is positively related to the level of productivity, firm size, spending on research and development (R&amp;D), the share of university graduates in productive employment and the internationalization of firms. State ownership and the perception of corruption by firms are mostly not statistically significant. The results obtained for the two groups of countries are statistically not very different, but enough to have some policy implications, while results for particular countries and subgroups of countries reveal a large degree of heterogeneity.</abstract>

The Determinants of Export Performance of Firms in Selected MENA Countries: Comparison with CEE Countries, Israel and Turkey

<abstract><title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>The study provides some quantitative information on voluntary pension plans in 10 CEE countries obtained from various local sources. The comparative analysis shows that there is a considerable variation in this group in terms of participation and contributions to the voluntary pension plans. In addition, this study empirically examines several factors that can possibly affect the development of voluntary pensions: income per capita and poverty rate, income inequality, replacement rate from the pension system, education attainment, interest rate and demographic burden. It uses a panel regression framework for the period of 2006–2014. The results reveal that, in the case of participation in voluntary pension plans, only income level per capita is associated with a greater number of pension plan members. As far as contributions are concerned, education seems to be the most important determinant of additional pension savings. Other factors do not seem to explain well both of the studied variables reflecting the development of voluntary pension schemes. However, as individual fixed effects are proven to be significant in the estimated models, one could conclude that country-specific characteristics play a significant role in explaining the development of voluntary pension schemes. They can be referred to the design and parametric settings of the non-mandatory pension system.</abstract>

Factors Affecting the Development of Voluntary Pension Schemes in CEE Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
In Nigeria, there has been a decline in oil revenue. This has impacted negatively on infrastructural development. This paper seeks to examine the effect of non-oil revenue as an alternative source of revenue for infrastructural development. The research design of the study was the ex post facto research design. The source of data was the secondary source and a time series of data from 1981 to 2021 was used in carrying out the research. The Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) bounds test was used to determine the long-run and short-run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. It was observed that the variables are co-integrated, and as such, a long-run and short-run relationship exists among the explanatory variables. Furthermore, the ARDL short-run estimation result shows that the non-oil tax variables (proxied by VAT, CUSTD, and CIT) have a positive and significant effect on infrastructural development (proxied by total electricity production measured in Gigawatt hours (GWh) in Nigeria. In tandem, the ARDL long-run estimation results reveal that value-added tax, customs duties, and company income tax have a positive and significant impact on infrastructural development in Nigeria. Hence, an increase in the non-oil tax revenue base will boost infrastructural development in Nigeria in the long run. This finding is in tandem with the ARDL short-run estimation result. Therefore, it is inferred that Nigeria can experience infrastructural development when genuine commitment is made to explore an increase in non-oil revenue generation instead of being over-dependent on oil revenue.
</abstract>

Non-Oil Tax Revenue and Infrastructural Development in Nigeria

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
Observable climate change and an increase in the frequency of extreme climate events undoubtedly pose challenges for society and business operations. The changes being implemented in sustainability efforts are a response to these challenges. However, the question is how these measures affect companies‘ financial performance.
The study aims to verify the relationship between the reporting of sustainability scores related to three aspects: environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG). It focuses on the financial performance of companies in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region in 2017–2021. The study will use panel regression and cross-sectional analysis. The results indicate a positive relationship between the disclosure of ESG activities and the financial performance of companies as measured by ROA. It was also observed that for companies operating in the financial sector, the correlation is greater, compared to companies operating in other sectors. This study contributes to the ongoing debate on the environment, society, and governance in the economy.
</abstract>

Relationship between ESG and Financial Performance of Companies in the Central and Eastern European Region

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
The literature are abound with studies on the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors on a company‘s value, or more broadly, on its financial performance. However, most analyses concern developed markets, mainly because the largest rating agencies operate in these markets, as well as because these are markets where ESG awareness and regulations have developed much faster. In developing markets, the number of studies in this area is disproportionately smaller. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between the environmental, social, and governance ratings (ESGR) of Polish listed companies included in the WIG-ESG index and their value. This study covered 36 companies listed in WIG-ESG in the period of 2019–2023. We used market data, financial data from examined companies and ESG data provided by Refinitive. The empirical results were negative but a non-statistically significant influence of ESGR and a company’s value. Further analysis indicated that none of the sub-ratings (environmental rating (ER), social rating (SR) and governance rating (GR)) had significant impact on value. The Polish market does not seem to recognize the potential of ESG factors in building the long-term value of companies and believes that the costs of ESG factors outweigh the benefits. Investors seem to disregard or underestimate ESG criteria when valuing companies, which may seem irrational when looking at the long-term effects of ESG factors.
This article contributes to the existing literature by being part of the research on ESG factors and company value. The article expands the field of analysing the relationship between ESGRs and corporate value by examining this relationship not only using the overall ESGR, but also its individual sub-ratings. We also attempt to answer the question of where the channels of transmission of ESGRs on the value of the company are located, and which areas affect ratings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of this type for the Polish market.
</abstract>

The Relationship Between ESG Rating and Firm Value—Evidence from Companies Listed on Polish Capital Market in the WIG-ESG Index

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
The aim of the article is to analyse the structure of consumer behaviour models and their applications to financial behaviour. The paper is theoretical in nature, examining generational breakdowns and selected trends in consumer behaviour. An analysis of the ‚rules‘ significant for types of consumer behaviour is conducted. Despite recently intensified theoretical and empirical analysis of consumer behaviour, a coherent research approach that integrates the issue of consumer behaviour with the specificities of the financial-services market has not yet been developed. Models remain frail, their functionality is still insufficient, and their applicability is constantly being altered by influences on consumer behaviour, including macro and microeconomic factors and the influence of scientific fields such as economics, sociology, psychology, management and anthropology. This article attempts to create a model that takes into account the general factors adopted in models constructed so far, along with the assumption that economic, cultural, social, personal, experiences, and other factors play a role in shaping and stimulating at least five variables: type of consumer from a particular generation (Cy); type of financial products and services (Xy); motivation (My); capacity (Capy); and opportunities (Oy).
</abstract>

The Frailty of Models, the New Era, or a Rotten World of Consumers’ Financial Behaviour?

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
Negative effects of globalisation and liberalisation of trade are countered using protectionist measures. Contemporary protectionism, typically termed neoprotectionism, is put into practice using a wide variety of non-tariff instruments, with a considerably lesser degree of transparency compared to tariffs, which are more difficult to identify and measure. The aim of this paper is to determine the dynamics of protection, as well as the category and geographical structure for the use of trade policy instruments in the world goods trade in the years 2010–2022. The study was based on source materials from the Global Trade Alert (GTA) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The conducted analyses showed that interventions taken in the world goods trade in the years 2010–2022 were primarily trade restrictions executed using non-tariff measures. In terms of its geographical distribution the relatively greatest scope of protectionism observed was for the trade policy of China and the USA. In terms of the product category, the sale of agricultural produce was protected the most. The realised model of protectionism differed depending on the group of products being traded, the standard of economic development of the country implementing trade policy measures, its export specialisation and the degree of self-sufficiency. The protectionist character of the trade policy was also enhanced during economic crises.
</abstract>

How Much Neoprotectionism is There in Contemporary World Trade?

Editorial: Special Edition of the Central European Economic Journal to Mark the 70th Birthday of Prof. Jan Jakub Michałek

<abstract><title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>The aim of this analysis is to examine the characteristics of the Airbnb network, to verify the share of Airbnb offers that belong to the sharing economy and to identify the differences between the spatial distribution of the Airbnb network and the traditional hotel industry. The article is based on a unique dataset of web-scraped data on Airbnb listings in Warsaw (Poland), combined with district-level official statistics on the hotel industry. The analysis shows that only approximately 11% of offers belong to the sharing economy (“individuals granting each other temporary access to their under-utilised assets”), while at least one third of offers are provided by professional firms. The Airbnb network shows a strong centre-periphery pattern, with 75% of offers located within a range of 4.3 kilometres from the centre. The spatial concentration of Airbnb offers is strongly driven by their distance from metro lines, while it is weakly related to the amount of living space. On the district-level, the spatial distribution of Airbnb listings is correlated with that of the hotel industry, although Airbnb contributes to a more even spread of tourism in the city. The major contribution of this analysis is its presentation of the size and characteristics of the platform, which is essential for data-driven policy making.</abstract>

Airbnb and the Hotel Industry in Warsaw: An Example of the Sharing Economy?

<abstract><title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>The pattern of trade of the Central and Eastern European countries has been changing since the beginning of the economic transition in the early 1990s. By the end of the century this process was additionally strengthened by their integration with the European Union and overlapped with the development of global value chains (GVC) spanning across Europe with which the new member states (NMS) have become increasingly integrated.In this paper, we shed light on these changes by analysing the position of the NMS within the global value chains. We employ the upstreamness measure proposed by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="j_ceej-2017-0003_ref_003_w2aab3b7b1b1b6b1ab1b6b3Aa">Antràs et al. (2012)</xref> and use the World Input–Output Database. Although we observe a global increasing trend in the upstreamness of all countries, we find that the NMS have in many cases gone against this trend while converging in their production structure within their group and with the EU-15. This convergence is mostly observed in Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia where the level of upstreamness in the most important exporting sectors was close to that of Germany by the end of the analysed period 1995−2011.</abstract>

Up or Down the Value Chain? A Comparative Analysis of the GVC Position of the Economies of the New EU Member States

<abstract><title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>During the last two decades, Poland has become a large recipient of inward foreign direct investment (FDI). This article uses standard panel data techniques to study empirically the determinants of inward FDI in Poland during the period 1996–2015 made by multinational enterprises coming from the old European Union (EU)-15 member states. The estimated specification is derived from the knowledge-capital (KC) model and includes two types of capital: human and physical. The assembled empirical evidence points to the horizontal motive as the primary reason for undertaking FDI in Poland by multinational firms based in the old EU-15 member states. Moreover, the KC model does not seem to explain better the pattern of inward FDI in Poland compared to the standard ad hoc gravity model of international capital mobility.</abstract>

Determinants of foreign direct investment from EU-15 Countries in Poland

<abstract><title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>This paper analyses the influence of financial development on income inequality. Throughout this work, one may find the overview of theoretical and empirical literature as well as the empirical model using fixed panel data method. This research paper tries to disentangle the opposing views on the relationship between finance and income distribution, by evaluating the impact of the different dimensions of financial development on the level of income inequality. The important added value of this research is the usage of quintiles of income distribution as a dependent variable that may help to recognise the effect of financial development on the poorest and richest. Another novelty of the paper is the consideration of the effects of financial variables on Gini coefficient in the long and short run. The main results of the analysis using dataset from 2003 to 2014 indicate that financial access decreases income inequality.</abstract>

Financial development and income inequality

<abstract><title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>In this paper, cryptocurrencies are analysed as investment instruments. The study aims to verify whether they can be classified as an asset class and what kind of benefits they may bring to the investor's portfolio. We used 6 indices as proxies for the major asset classes, including the cryptocurrency index CRIX, for all cryptographic assets.Cryptocurrencies relatively fully satisfied 7 asset class requirements, namely stable aggregation, investability, internal homogeneity, external heterogeneity, expected utility, selection skill and cost-effective access. It was found that crypto assets have diversification properties. Portfolio optimisation with the Modern Portfolio Theory showed an increase in the Sharpe ratio of tangency portfolios with the inclusion of CRIX. However, the Post-Modern Portfolio Theory identified significant deterioration of the downside risk and the Sortino ratio.</abstract>

Cryptocurrencies as an asset class in portfolio optimisation

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Central European Economic Journal

 Central European Economic Journal publishes original theoretical and empirical research papers in the field of economics as well as at the intersection of economics and sociology,...

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 Central European Economic Journal publishes original theoretical and empirical research papers in the field of economics as well as at the...