1. bookVolume 8 (2020): Issue 1 (June 2020)
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
2353-3773
First Published
15 Dec 2015
Publication timeframe
1 time per year
Languages
English
access type Open Access

Social Constructivism as Forecasting Matrix. Collective Habitus in International Relations

Published Online: 20 Jul 2020
Volume & Issue: Volume 8 (2020) - Issue 1 (June 2020)
Page range: 1 - 19
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
2353-3773
First Published
15 Dec 2015
Publication timeframe
1 time per year
Languages
English
Abstract

Social constructivism is not among the most popular theoretical approaches used in forecasting in International Relations. The article argues that constructivism suffers from the same limitations as any other paradigm in IR, therefore, there is no reason to exclude this theory from forecasting effort. In this paper, social constructivism is perceived to offer a new conceptual framework for sound and robust projections of the future. The core of our concept is constituted by the term of collective habitus. Habitus is a relatively stable, yet mutable social structure that can enable deliberations about future. It is based on a long-term history study programme of the School of Annales, as we identify long lasting habits-like patterns of behaviours among IR actors.

Keywords

Acharya, Amitav and Barry Buzan (2010), ‘Why is there non-Western international relations theory? An introduction’, in Amitav Acharya and Barry Buzan, eds. Non-Western International Relations Theory: Perspectives On and Beyond Asia. Politics in Asia, 1–25, London and New York: Routledge.10.4324/9780203861431Search in Google Scholar

Ashley, Richard K. (Spring 1984) ‘The Poverty of Neorealism’, International Organization, 38, (2): 225–286.10.1017/S0020818300026709Search in Google Scholar

Adler, Emanuel and Petert M. Haas (1992), ‘Conclusion: Epistemic Communities, World Order, and the Creation of a Reflective Research Program’, International Organization, 46(1): 367–390.10.1017/S0020818300001533Search in Google Scholar

Adler, Emanuel (1997), ‘Seizing the Middle Ground: Constructivism in World Politics’, European Journal of International Relations 3(3): 319–363.10.1177/1354066197003003003Search in Google Scholar

Albert, Mathias, Barry Buzan and Micheal Michael, eds. (2013) Bringing Sociology to International Relations. World Politics as Differentiation Theory, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139856041Search in Google Scholar

Alvesson, Mats and Kaj Sköldberg (2013), Reflexive Methodology: New Vistas for Qualitative Research, London, Los Angeles: Sage Publications.Search in Google Scholar

Banks, Christopher P. and John C. Blakeman (2012), The U.S. Supreme Court and New Federalism: From the Rehnquist to the Roberts Court, Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.Search in Google Scholar

Barnett, Michael (2006), ‘Social Constructivism’, in John Byalis and Steve Smith, eds. The Glozbalization of World Politics. An Introduction to international relations,148–164, Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Barkin Samuel (2009), ‘Realism, Prediction, and Foreign Policy’, Foreign Policy Analysis, 5: 233–246.10.1111/j.1743-8594.2009.00091.xSearch in Google Scholar

Bauman, Zygmunt (2006), ‘Płynna nowoczesność’, Kraków: Wydawnictwo Literackie.Search in Google Scholar

Beck, Ulrich (1992), Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity, Sage: New Delhi.Search in Google Scholar

Beck, Ulrich (2006), The Cosmopolitan Vision, Cambridge: Polity Press.Search in Google Scholar

Beeman, Richard R., Stephen Botein, Edward C. Carter, eds. (1987) Beyond Confederation: Origins of the Constitution and American National Identity, Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press 1987.Search in Google Scholar

Blei, David M., Andrew Y. Ng and Michael L. (2003), ‘Latent Dirichlet Allocation’, Journal of Machine Learning Research 3(3):993–1022.Search in Google Scholar

Booth, Ken (1995), ‘Dare not to Know: International Relations Theory versus the Future’, in Ken Booth and Steve Smith, eds. International Relations Theory Today Oxford: Polity Press.Search in Google Scholar

Bourdieu, Pierre (1984), Distinction: a social critique of the judgement of taste, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Bourdieu, Pierre (1990), In Other Words: Essays Towards a Reflexive Sociology, Palo Alto: Stanford University Press.10.1515/9781503621558Search in Google Scholar

Bourdieu, Pierre (1992), The Logic of Practice, Palo Alto: Stanford University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Burgess, Michael (2000), Federalism and the European Union: The Building of Europe, 1950–2000, London and New York: Routledge.Search in Google Scholar

Ceruti, Furio and Sonia Lucarelli, eds. (2011)The Search for a European Identity: Values, Policies and Legitimacy of the European Union, London and New York: Routledge.Search in Google Scholar

Checkel, Jeffrey T. and Peter J. Katzenstein, eds. (2009), European Identity, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511806247Search in Google Scholar

Choucri, Nazli (1979), ‘Comments on “Scientific Forecasts in International Relations’, International Studies Quarterly 23(1): 145–149.10.2307/2600277Search in Google Scholar

Choucri, Nazli (1974), Forecasting in International Relations: Problems and Prospects, International Interactions 1: 63–86.10.1080/03050627408434390Search in Google Scholar

Christopoulos, Dimitrios C. (2010), ‘Peer Esteem Snowballing: A methodology for expert surveys’, European Commission, available athttp://ec.europa.eu/ (13 October,2015).Search in Google Scholar

Chwedczuk-Szulc, Karol and Andrzej Polus (2015), ‘Konstruktywizm społeczny a prognozowanie w stosunkach międzynarodowych’, in Elżbieta bStadtmüller and Łukasz Fijałkowski, eds. Normy, wartości i instytucje we współczesnych stosunkach międzynarodowych”, Warszawa: Rambler.Search in Google Scholar

Dijk, van Teun A. (2000), On the analysis of parliamentary debates on immigration, in Martin Reisigl and Ruth Wodak, eds., The semiotics of racism. Approaches to critical discourse analysis, 85–103, Vienna: Passagen Verlag.Search in Google Scholar

‘DoD News Briefing — Secretary Rumsfeld and Gen. Myers’ (2002), U.S. Department of Defence, available at http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/ (30 January, 2015).Search in Google Scholar

Doran, Charles F. (1999), ‘Why Forecasts Fail: The Limits and Potential of Forecasting in International Relations and Economics’, International Studies Review 1(2): 11–41.10.1111/1521-9488.00154Search in Google Scholar

Drake, Frederic D. and Lynn R. Nelson (1999), eds., States’ Rights and American Federalism: A Documentary History, Wesport: Greenwood.Search in Google Scholar

Elias, Norbert (1978), The Civilizing Process, New York: Urizen Books.Search in Google Scholar

Fabbrini, Sergio and Simona Piattoni, eds. (2007), Italy in the European Union: Redefining National Interest in a Compound Polity, Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.10.1515/ZSE.2006.012Search in Google Scholar

Fabbrini, Sergio (2009), Compound Democracies: Why the United States and Europe Are Becoming Similar, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Faust, Drew G. (1990), The Creation of Confederate Nationalism: Ideology and Identity in the Civil War South, Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Feeley, Malcolm and Edward Rubin (2011), Federalism: Political Identity and Tragic Compromise, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.10.3998/mpub.4127035Search in Google Scholar

Fransson, Niklas and Tommy Garling (1999), ‘Environmental Concern: Conceptual Definitions, Measurement Methods and Research Findings’, Journal of Environmental Psychology 19(4): 369–382.10.1006/jevp.1999.0141Search in Google Scholar

Freeman, John R. and Brian L. Job (1979), ‘Scientific forecast in international relations’, International Studies Quarterly 23(1): 113–143.10.2307/2600276Search in Google Scholar

Freedman, Lawrence (2009), ‘Przyszłość studiów strategicznych’ in: Baylis, John, Withs James, Gray Collin, Cohen Eliot, eds. Strategia we współczenym świecie, Kraków: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego.Search in Google Scholar

Friedman, George (2009), The Next 100 Years, New York: Anchor Books.Search in Google Scholar

Friedmam, Rebeca and Marcus Thiel, eds. (2012)European Identity and Culture: Narratives of Transnational Belonging, Farnham: Ashgate.Search in Google Scholar

Gaddis, John Lewis (1992–1993), ‘International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War’. International Security, 17( 3,): 5–58.10.2307/2539129Search in Google Scholar

Giddens, Anthony (1991), Modernity and Self-Identity: Self and Society in the Late Modern Age, Palo Alto: Stanford University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Gilardi, Fabrizio (2012), ‘Transnational diffusion: Norms, ideas, and policies’, in Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse and Beth Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations,453–477, Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications 2012.Search in Google Scholar

Gilpin, Robert (1999), ‘War and Change in World Politics’, in Paul Viotti and Mark Kauppi, eds. International Relations Theory. Pluralism, Globalism and Beyond, Boston: Allyn and Bacon.Search in Google Scholar

Glencross, Andrew (2009), What Makes the EU Viable? European Integration in the Light of the Antebellum US Experience, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.10.1057/9780230240896Search in Google Scholar

Gould, Andrew C. and Anthony M. Messina, eds. (2014), Europe’s Contending Identities: Supranationalism, Ethnoregionalism, Religion, and New Nationalism, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2014.10.1017/CBO9781139567558Search in Google Scholar

Grześkowiak, Alicja (2014), ‘Assesment of Interpersonal Trust of Poles by the Principle Components Analysis and Log-Linear Modeling’, Econometrics 1(43): 74–86.Search in Google Scholar

Guzzini, Stefano (2000), ‘A Reconstruction of Constructivism In International Relations’, European Journal of International Relations 6(2): 147–182.10.1177/1354066100006002001Search in Google Scholar

Halberstam, Daniel, and Mathias Reimann (2013), Federalism and Legal Unification: A Comparative Empirical Investigation of Twenty Systems, New York: Springer.Search in Google Scholar

Hay, Colin (2002), Political Analysis: A Critical Introduction, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.10.1007/978-0-230-62911-0Search in Google Scholar

Heiss-Morse, Elisabeth (2009), Who Counts as an American? The Boundaries of National Identity, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511750717Search in Google Scholar

Herrmann, Richard K., Thomas Risse and Marilynn B. Brewer, eds. (2004), Transnational Identities: Becoming European in the EU, Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.Search in Google Scholar

Hitlin, Steven, ‘Values As the Core of Personal Identity: Drawing Links Between Two Theories of Self’, Social Psychology Quarterly 66(2): 118–13710.2307/1519843Search in Google Scholar

Homer, Pamela H. and Lynn R. Kahle (1988), ‘A Structural Equation Test of the Value-Attitude-Behaviour Hierarchy’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54(4): 638–646.10.1037/0022-3514.54.4.638Search in Google Scholar

Hopf, Ted (1998), ‘The Promise of Constructivism in International Relations Theory’, International Security 23(1): 171–200.10.1162/isec.23.1.171Search in Google Scholar

Hopf, Ted (2010), ‘The logic of habit in International Relations’, European Journal of International Relations 16(4): 539–561.10.1177/1354066110363502Search in Google Scholar

Jarvis, Darryl S.L. (2000), International Relations and the Challenge of Postmodernism. Defending the Discipline, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.Search in Google Scholar

Jones, Jeffrey J. (2014), ‘Record-High 42% of Americans Identify as Independents’, Gallup. com, available athttp://www.gallup.com/poll (15 June, 2016).Search in Google Scholar

Jonsson, Christer, Sven Tagil and Gunnar Tornqvist (2000), Organizing European Space, Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications.Search in Google Scholar

Kaminski, John P. and Richard Lefler (1998), Federalists and Antifederalists: The Debate Over the Ratification of the Constitution, Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.Search in Google Scholar

Kaplan, Morton A. (1966), ‘The New Great Debate: Traditionalism vs. Science in International Relations’,World Politics19(1): 1–20.Search in Google Scholar

Karmis, Dimitrios and Wayne Norman (2005), Theories of Federalism: A Reader, Basing-stoke: Palgrave Macmillan.10.1007/978-1-137-05549-1Search in Google Scholar

Keating, Joshua E. (2011), ‘Megatrends that Weren’t. A look at yesterday’s Next Big Things, from the Japanese rising sun to Dow 36,000’, Foreign Policy, (September/October).Search in Google Scholar

Keulman, Kenneth and Anges K. Koos (2014), European Identity: Its Feasibility and Desirability, Lanham: Lexington Books.Search in Google Scholar

Knight, Frank H. (1964), Risk, uncertainty and profit, New York: Sentery Press.Search in Google Scholar

LaCroix, Alison L. (2011), The Ideological Origins of American Federalism, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.10.2307/j.ctv1p6hp43Search in Google Scholar

Lahire Bernard (2003), ‘From the habitus to an individual heritage of dispositions. Towards a sociology at the level of the individual’, Poetics, 31: 329–355.10.1016/j.poetic.2003.08.002Search in Google Scholar

Lasswell, Harold D. (1970), ‘The Emerging Conception of the Policy Sciences’, Policy Sciences, 1(1).10.1007/BF00145189Search in Google Scholar

Lasswell, Harold D. (1971), A-Pre-View of Policy Sciences, New York: Elsevier.Search in Google Scholar

Lee Ray, James (1998), ‘Does Democracy cause Peace?’ Annual Review of Political Science 1: 27–46.10.1146/annurev.polisci.1.1.27Search in Google Scholar

Lewis, Alan (2008), The Cambridge Handbook of Psychology and Economic Behaviour, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2006.10.1017/CBO9780511490118Search in Google Scholar

Maciag, Mike, ‘Public Approval of State and Local Government Rises, Federal Rating Tumbles’, Governing, available at http://www.governing.com/ (19 October, 2015).Search in Google Scholar

Madison, James (1788), ‘The Federalist No. 51. The Structure of the Government Must Furnish the Proper Checks and Balances Between the Different Departments’, Independent Journal, (6 February, 1788).Search in Google Scholar

Mazuri, Ali A. (1999), Progress” Illegitimate Child of Judeo-Christian Universalism and Western Ethnocentrism — A Third World Critique, in: Leo Marx, Bruce Mazlish, eds. Progress. Fact or Illusion?: The University of Michigan Press.Search in Google Scholar

McCarthy, Justin (2014), ‘Americans Still Trust Local Government More Than State’, Gallup.com, available at http://www.gallup.com/poll (19 June, 2016).Search in Google Scholar

McCourt, David, M. (2016) Practice Theory and Relationalism as the New Constructivism, “International Studies Quarterly”, (60)10.1093/isq/sqw036Search in Google Scholar

McGuire, Steven and Michael Smith (2008), The European Union and the United States: Convergence and Competition in the Global Arena, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.Search in Google Scholar

Merton, Robert K. (1968), Social Theory and Social Structure, New York: The Free Press.Search in Google Scholar

Mesquita, de Bruce B. (2010)., The Predictioneer’s Game. Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future, Ney York: Random House.Search in Google Scholar

Meyer, Christoph O. (2011), ‘The Purpose and Pitfalls of Constructivist Forecasting: Insights from Strategic Culture Research for the European Union’s Evolution as a Military Power’, International Studies Quarterly 55 (3): 669–690.Search in Google Scholar

Milfont, Taciano L., John Duckitt and Claire Wagner (2010), A Cross-Cultural Test of the Value–Attitude–Behavior Hierarchy, Journal of Applied Social Psychology 40(11): 2791–2813.10.1111/j.1559-1816.2010.00681.xSearch in Google Scholar

Moran Dermont (2011), ‘Edmund Husserl’s Phenomenology of Habituality and Habitus’, Journal of the British Society for Phenomenology, 42, (1): 53–77.10.1080/00071773.2011.11006731Search in Google Scholar

Müftüler-Bac, Meltem and Yannis A. Stivachtis, eds. (2008), Turkey-European Union relations: dilemmas, opportunities, and constraints, Lanham: Lexington Books.Search in Google Scholar

National Research Council (2010), Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, Washington D.C.: National Academic Press.Search in Google Scholar

Norman, Wayne (2006), Negotiating Nationalism: Nation-Building, Federalism, and Secession in the Multinational State, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Nugent, Neill (2010), The Government and Politics of the European Union, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.10.1007/978-0-230-36611-4Search in Google Scholar

Phelan, William (2012), ‘What is Sui Generis about the European Union? Costly International Cooperation in a Self-Contained Regime’, International Studies Review, 14(3): 367–385.10.1111/j.1468-2486.2012.01136.xSearch in Google Scholar

Pickel, Andreas (2005), ‘The Habitus Process. A Biopsychosocial Conception’, Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 35(4): 436–461.10.1111/j.1468-5914.2005.00285.xSearch in Google Scholar

‘Public Trust in Government: 1958–2014’ (2014),Pew Research Centre, available at http://www.people-press.org/ (19 June 2016).Search in Google Scholar

Reid, T.R. (2005), The United States of Europe: The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy, London: Penguin Books.Search in Google Scholar

Riley, Patrick (2006), ‘The Social Contract and Its Critics’ in Mark Goldie and Robert Wokler, eds. The Cambridge History of Eighteenth-Century Political Thought, 347–379 Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2006.Search in Google Scholar

Risse, Thomas (2010), A Community of Europeans? Transnational Identities and Public Spheres, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Schatz, Bettina (2014), How to Establish a Corporate Identity for the European Union: Development of a Brand Concept to create an “us-feeling” amongst European Citizens, Saarbrucken: AV Akademikerverlag.Search in Google Scholar

Schlenker, Andrea (2013), ‘Cosmopolitan Europeans or Partisans of Fortress Europe? Supranational Identity Patterns in the EU’, Global Society 27(1): 25–51.10.1080/13600826.2012.734281Search in Google Scholar

Schoutheete, Philippe de and Sami Andoura (2007), ‘The Legal Personality of the European Union; Studia Diplomatica 60(1): 1–9.Search in Google Scholar

Shim, Soyeon, Patti Warrington and Ellen Goldsberry (1999), A personal value-based model of college students’ attitudes and expected choice behaviour regarding retailing careers, Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal 28(1): 28–51.10.1177/1077727X99281003Search in Google Scholar

Smith-Rosenberg, Carroll (2010), This Violent Empire: The Birth of an American National Identity, Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.10.5149/northcarolina/9780807832967.001.0001Search in Google Scholar

Stackelberg, Peter von Alex McDowell (2015), What in the World? Storyworlds, Science Fiction, and Futures Studies, Journal of Futures Studies 20(12): 47–65.Search in Google Scholar

‘State Governments Viewed Favorably as Federal Rating Hits New Low’ (2013), Pew Research Centre, available athttp://www.people-press.org/ (19 June 2016).Search in Google Scholar

Hechter, Michael, ‘Symposium on Prediction in the Social Sciences’ (1995), American Journal of Sociology 100(6): 1520–1527.10.1086/230670Search in Google Scholar

Tallberg, Jonas (2003), European Governance And Supranational Institutions: Making States Comply, London and New York: Routledge.10.4324/9780203458471Search in Google Scholar

Tocqueville, Alexis de (1992), Democracy in America, London: Penguin Classics.Search in Google Scholar

Trechsel, Alexander H. (2005), ‘How to Federalize European Union… and Why Bother?’, Journal of European Public Policy 12(3): 401–418.10.1080/13501760500091117Search in Google Scholar

Trubek, David M. and Thiery Bourgoignie (2013), eds. Consumer Law, Common Markets and Federalism in Europe and the United States, Berlin: Verlag De Gruyter-Recht.Search in Google Scholar

University of California Television (UCTV), Conversations with History: Kenneth Waltz, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9eV5gPlPZg&t=1274s (visited: 21.05.2019).Search in Google Scholar

Vaske, Jerry J. and Maureen P. Donnelly (1999), ‘A value–attitude–behaviour model predicting wild land preservation voting intentions’, Society and Natural Resources 12(6): 523–537.10.1080/089419299279425Search in Google Scholar

Vertovec, Steven and Robin Cohen (2002), eds. Conceiving Cosmopolitanism: Theory, Context and Practice, New York: Oxford University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Vincent, Jack E. (1980), ‘Scientific Prediction versus Crystal Ball Gazing: Can the Unknown be Known?’, International Studies Quarterly 24(3): 450–454.10.2307/2600255Search in Google Scholar

Wacquant Loïc (2016), ‘A concise genealogy and anatomy of habitus’, The Sociological Review, 64: 64–72.10.1111/1467-954X.12356Search in Google Scholar

Waever, Ole (1996), The Rise and Fall of the Inter-paradigm Debate, in: Steve Smith, Ken Booth and Marysia Zalewski, eds. International Theory: Positivism & Beyond,149–185, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511660054.009Search in Google Scholar

Wæver, Ole (1998), ‘The Sociology of a Not So International Discipline: American and European Developments in International Relations’, International Organization 52(4): 687–727.10.1162/002081898550725Search in Google Scholar

Wendt, Alexander (1992), ‘Anarchy is what States Make of it: The Social Construction of Power Politics’, International Organization 46(2): 391–425.10.1017/S0020818300027764Search in Google Scholar

Wendt, Alexander (1999), Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511612183Search in Google Scholar

Zimmerman, Joseph F. (2009), Contemporary American Federalism: The Growth of National Power, New York: State University of New York Press.Search in Google Scholar

Recommended articles from Trend MD

Plan your remote conference with Sciendo