Financial Fragility in Developing Countries: An Analysis in the Context of Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence¹

1. Aftab, M.and Mehmood, A. (2023). Does Central bank transparency deter the exchange rate volatility? New evidence from Asian emerging markets. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 12(2), 133-163. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0017 Search in Google Scholar

2. Agoba, A. M., Abor, J. Y., Osei, K. A., & Sa-Aadu, J. (2020). The independence of central banks, political institutional quality and financial sector development in africa. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 19(2), 154-188. https://doi.org/10.1177/097265271987747 Search in Google Scholar

3. Ahumada, A., & Budnevich, C. (2001). Some measures of financial fragility in the Chilean banking system: An early warning indicators application. Central Bank of Chile, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 117. Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/chb/bcchwp/117.html Search in Google Scholar

4. Akin, F. (2017). Türkiye ve Seçilmiş Balkan Ülkelerinde Makroekonomik Kirilganlik: Karşilaştirmali Bir Analiz (Macroeconomic Fragility in Turkey and Selected Balkan Countries: A Comparative Analysis). Balkan and Near Eastern Journal of Social Sciences, 3(4), 88-96. Available at: https://www.ibaness.org/bnejss/2017_03_04/09_Akin.pdf Search in Google Scholar

5. Alesina, A. (1988). Macroeconomics and politics. NBER macroeconomics annual, 3, 13-62. Available at: http://www.nber.org/books/fisc88-1 Search in Google Scholar

6. Al-Rjoub, S. A. (2021). A financial stability index for Jordan. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 10(2), 157-178. https://doi.org/10.2478/ jcbtp-2021-0018 Search in Google Scholar

7. Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D Search in Google Scholar

8. Arora, M. V. B., & Cerisola, M. M. D. (2000). How does US monetary policy influence economic conditions in emerging markets? IMF, Working Paper WP/00/148. Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/ wp00148.pdf Search in Google Scholar

9. Bade, R., & Parkin, M. (1988). Central bank laws and monetary policy. Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario London, University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series No 7804. Available at: https://economics.uwo.ca/people/parkin docs/CentralBankLaws.pdf Search in Google Scholar

10. Balakrishnan, R., Danninger, S., Elekdag, S., & Tytell, I. (2011). The transmission of financial stress from advanced to emerging economies. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47(sup2), 40-68. https://doi. org/10.2753/REE1540-496X4703S203 Search in Google Scholar

11. Bayraktar, Y., & Elüstü, S. (2016). Makroekonomik Kirilganliğin Ölçülmesi: Yükselen Piyasalar ve Türkiye için Karşilaştirmali Bir Analiz (Measuring Macroeconomic Vulnerability: Comparative Analysis of the Emerging Markets and Turkey). Hak İș Uluslararasi Emek ve Toplum Dergisi, 5(12), 8-29. Available at: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/263269 Search in Google Scholar

12. Berument, H., Ceylan, N. B., & Olgun, H. (2007). The effects of changes in the anticipated and unanticipated Fed funds target rate on financial indicators: The case of an emerging market country-Turkey. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, (7), 40-47. Available at: http:// berument.bilkent.edu.tr/irjfe01.pdf Search in Google Scholar

13. Bhattarai, S., Chatterjee, A., & Park, W. Y. (2018). Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 122, 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2020.104031 Search in Google Scholar

14. Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8 Search in Google Scholar

15. Bowman, D., Londono, J. M., & Sapriza, H. (2015). US unconventional monetary policy and transmission to emerging market economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 55, 27-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.02.016 Search in Google Scholar

16. Bulut, E., Demirel, B., & Akar, N. Ç. (2017). 2008 Krizi Sonrasi FED’in Faiz Artiriminin Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerindeki Portföy Yatirimlari Üzerine Etkileri (Impacts Of Fed’s Hiking Interest Rates On Portfolio Investments in Emerging Markets Economies After the 2008 Crisis). Gazi İktisat ve İșletme Dergisi, 3(1), 35-58. Available at: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/ download/article-file/271556 Search in Google Scholar

17. Chen, Q., Filardo, A. J., He, D., & Zhu, F. (2012). International spillovers of central bank balance sheet policies. In: Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, ed. Bank for International Settlements, 66, 220-264. Search in Google Scholar

18. Cukierman, A., Webb, S. B., & Neyapti, B. (1992). Measuring the independence of central banks and its effect on policy outcomes. The world bank economic review, 6(3), 353-398. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/ stable/3989977 Search in Google Scholar

19. Dajčman, S., Kavkler, A., Merzlyakov, S., Pekarski, S. E., & Romih, D. (2022). International Transmission of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stress Shocks from the Euro Area to Russia. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 11(1), 227-247. https://doi.org/10.2478/ jcbtp-2022-0010 Search in Google Scholar

20. Demirgil, H. (2011). Merkez Bankasi bağimsizliği ve makroekonomik performans: TCMB Örneği (Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: The Case of CBRT). Sosyoekonomi, 16(16), 113-136. Available at: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/sosyoekonomi/ issue/21076/226913 Search in Google Scholar

21. Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Detragiache, E. (1999). Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics. World Bank, World Bank Policy Research Working Papers No: 1917. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1917 Search in Google Scholar

22. Erer, E., Erer, D., Çayir, M., & Altay, N. O. (2016). TCMB, FED ve ECB Para Politikalarinin Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkileri: 1994-2014 Dönemi Analizi( The Effects of Monetary Policies by CBRT, FED and ECB on Turkish Economy: An Analysis for 1994-2014 Period). Sosyoekonomi, 24(29), 285-305. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.2016.07.004 Search in Google Scholar

23. Fed. (2014). Monetary Policy Report, February 11, 2014. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Available at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/ monetarypolicy/files/20140211_mprfullreport.pdf Search in Google Scholar

24. Feridun, M. (2009). Determinants of exchange market pressure in Turkey: an econometric investigation. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 45(2), 65-81. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X450204 Search in Google Scholar

25. Ferrari-Filho, F., Terra, F. H. B., & Conceição, O. A. (2010). The financial fragility hypothesis applied to the public sector: an analysis for Brazil’s economy from 2000 to 2008. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 33(1), 151-168. https://doi.org/10.2307/20798385 Search in Google Scholar

26. Fratzscher, M., Duca, M. L., & Straub, R. (2016). ECB unconventional monetary policy: Market impact and international spillovers. IMF Economic Review, 64(1), 36-74. Search in Google Scholar

27. Garriga, A. C. (2016). Central bank independence in the world: A new data set. International Interactions, 42(5), 849-868. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050 629.2016.1188813 Search in Google Scholar

28. Garriga, A. C., & Rodriguez, C. M. (2020). More effective than we thought: Central bank independence and inflation in developing countries. Economic Modelling, 85, 87-105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.05.009 Search in Google Scholar

29. Göcen, S. (2017). Global Para Politikalarinin Açik Ekonomilerdeki İș; Çevrimleri Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Anadolu International Conference in Economics V, May 11-13, 2017, Eskişehir, Turkey. 30. Georgiadis, G., & Gräb, J. (2016). Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB’s extended asset purchase programme. Journal of Financial Stability, 26, 257-265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2016.07.009 Search in Google Scholar

31. Grilli, V., Masciandaro, D., & Tabellini, G. (1991). Political and Monetary Institutions and Public Financial Policies in The Industrial Countries. Economic Policy, 6(13), 341-392. https://doi.org/10.2307/1344630 Search in Google Scholar

32. Ho, S. W., Zhang, J., & Zhou, H. (2018). Hot money and quantitative easing: The spillover effects of US monetary policy on Chinese Housing, equity and loan markets. Social Science Electronic, 3, 1-48. https://doi.org/10.1111/ jmcb.12501 Search in Google Scholar

33. Iftikhar, S. (2015). Financial reforms and financial fragility: A panel data analysis. International Journal of Financial Studies, 3(2), 84-101. https://doi. org/10.3390/ijfs3020084 Search in Google Scholar

34. Kaplan, F., & Yaprakli, S. (2014). Ekonomik Kirilganlik Endeksi Göstergelerinin Döviz Kuru Üzerindeki Etkileri: Kirilgan 12 Ülke Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi (The Effects of The Economic Fragility Index Indicators on Exchange Rate Effects: Panel Data Analysis on Fragile 12 Country). Uluslararasi Alanya șletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(3), 111-121. Search in Google Scholar

35. Karakurt, B., Şentürk, S. H., & Mehmet, E. (2015). Makroekonomik Kirilganlik: Türkiye VE Şangay Beşlisi Karşilaştirmasi (Macroeconomic Vulnerability: A Comparison Between Turkey and Shanghai Five). Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştirmalari Dergisi, 13(1), 283-307. http://dx.doi.org/10.11611/ JMER563 Search in Google Scholar

36. Kibritçioğlu, A. (2002). Excessive risk-taking, banking sector fragility, and banking crises. U of Illinois, Commerce and Bus. Admin., Working Paper No: 02-0114. Search in Google Scholar

37. Kibritçioğlu, A. (2003). Monitoring banking sector fragility. The Arab Bank Review, 5(2), 51-66. Available at: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/9313839. pdf Search in Google Scholar

38. Klomp, J., & De Haan, J. (2009). Central bank independence and financial instability. Journal of Financial Stability, 5(4), 321-338. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jfs.2008.10.001 Search in Google Scholar

39. Lopes, L. T. (2014). Institutional development and monetary policy transmission. Georgia State University Economic Dissertations, Georgia/ USA. 40. Kuek, T. H., Puah, C. H., & Arip, M. A. (2020). Financial vulnerability and economic dynamics in Malaysia. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 9(s1), 55-73. https://doi.org/ 10.2478/jcbtp-2020-0023 Search in Google Scholar

41. Maćkowiak, B. (2007). External shocks, US monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Journal of monetary economics, 54(8), 2512-2520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2007.06.021 Search in Google Scholar

42. Neely, C. J. (2015). Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects. Journal of Banking & Finance, 52, 101-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jbankfin.2014.11.019 Search in Google Scholar

43. OECD, & JRC European Comission (2008). Handbook on constructing composite indicators: methodology and user guide. OECD Publishing. Search in Google Scholar

44. Padoa-Schioppa, T. (2003). Central banks and financial stability: exploring the land in between. The transformation of the European financial system, 25, 269-310. Search in Google Scholar

45. Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels. Empirical Economics, 1-38. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s00181-020-01875-7 Search in Google Scholar

46. Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of crosssection dependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https:// doi.org/10.1002/jae.951 Search in Google Scholar

47. Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x Search in Google Scholar

48. Rosa, C. (2011). The Validity of the Event-study Approach: Evidence from the Impact of the Fed’s Monetary Policy on US and Foreign Asset Prices. Economica, 78(311), 429-439. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468- 0335.2009.00828.x Search in Google Scholar

49. Ruiz-Porras, A. (2008). Banking competition and financial fragility: Evidence from panel-data. Estudios Económicos, 23(1), 49-87. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/40311538#metadata_info_tab_contents Search in Google Scholar

50. Schinasi, M. G. J. (2003). Responsibility of central banks for stability in financial markets. International Monetary Fund, Working Paper No. 2003/121. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/ Issues/2016/12/30/Responsibility-of-Central-Banks-for-Stability-in- Financial-Markets-16526 Search in Google Scholar

51. Selgin, G. (2010). Central banks as sources of financial instability. The Independent Review, 14(4), 485-496. Available at: https://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_14_04_01_selgin.pdf Search in Google Scholar

52. Singh, T. R. (2010). An ordered probit model of an early warning system for predicting financial crisis in India. IFC Bulletins chapters, In: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on “Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis”, Basel, 25-26 August 2010, 34, 185-201. Search in Google Scholar

53. Tymoigne, É. (2011). Measuring macroprudential risk: Financial fragility indexes. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Working Paper No: 654. Search in Google Scholar