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Population with Criminal Records and Racial Disparity in Labor Markets


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Figure 1

Work year distribution
Work year distribution

Figure 2

Unemployment and nonemployment by group
Unemployment and nonemployment by group

Negative binomial regression, weeks not working, men

Coefficient (P value)
Constant–1.64***–1.76***–0.520***–0.954***–1.92***–1.54***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Black0.324***0.1070.234***0.123*0.1110.123
(0.000)(0.106)(0.000)(0.065)(0.158)(0.122)
Hispanic0.128**–0.0220.047–0.018–0.127–0.118
(0.025)(0.748)(0.408)(0.797)(0.133)(0.164)
Incarceration–0.048–0.105–0.035–0.085
(dummy)(0.456)(0.145)(0.584)(0.239)
ASVAB–0.189***–0.096***–0.162***–0.119***
(0.000)(0.006)(0.000)(0.005)
ASVAB20.122***0.107***0.123***0.113***
(0.000)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)
Own education–0.090***–0.063***–0.037**
(0.000)(0.000)(0.016)
Mother’s education–0.012–0.009
(0.384)(0.535)
Father’s education0.0170.022*
(0.177)(0.081)
Number of0.0010.001
suspensions(0.420)(0.592)
Number of0.093***0.082***
charges(0.000)(0.000)
Number of–0.019*–0.020**
arrests(0.053)(0.043)
Number of0.0190.030
incarcerations(0.672)(0.506)
Pseudo R20.00110.00340.00390.00410.00470.0049
N2,7422,1452,6952,1101,5911,567

Summary statistics for unemployment and nonemployment

2000–2016, ALLHispanicBlackNonblack/Non-Hispanic
Men—unemployment
Fraction of men with > 0 weeks0.7180.8080.596
Mean fraction of weeks, given > 00.1590.2670.188
Median fraction of weeks, given > 00.0810.1930.095
Men—nonemployment
Fraction of men with > 0 weeks0.7750.8360.685
Mean fraction of weeks, given > 00.1580.2780.150
Median fraction of weeks, given > 00.0780.1730.065
N9771,1692,413
2000–2016, Ever incarceratedHispanicBlackNonblack/Non-Hispanic
Men—unemployment
Fraction of men with > 0 weeks0.8970.9450.886
Mean fraction of weeks, given > 00.1670.3340.189
Median fraction of weeks, given > 00.1170.2660.124
Men—nonemployment
Fraction of men with > 0 weeks0.9590.9880.936
Mean fraction of weeks, given > 00.2750.4650.233
Median fraction of weeks, given > 00.2080.4770.166
N145256264
2000–2016, Never incarceratedHispanicBlackNonblack/Non-Hispanic
Men—unemployment
Fraction of men with > 0 weeks0.6860.7700.561
Mean fraction of weeks, given > 00.1580.2450.188
Median fraction of weeks, given > 00.0720.1720.088
Men—nonemployment
Fraction of men with > 0 weeks0.7430.7930.654
Mean fraction of weeks, given > 00.1290.2060.132
Median fraction of weeks, given > 00.0640.1160.050
N8329132,149

Ordinary least squares regression, weeks not working, men

Coefficients (P value)
Constant124.71***108.09***354.75***270.51***101.70***192.07***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Black55.41***19.29**44.94***25.14***21.54**25.87***
(0.000)(0.026)(0.000)(0.004)(0.029)(0.009)
Hispanic25.30***1.7912.484.02–10.35–6.06
(0.001)(0.843)(0.109)(0.654)(0.322)(0.563)
Incarceration–4.98 to–2.09–10.52(0.274)
(dummy)–11.87 (0.589)(0.219)(0.815)
ASVAB–35.54***–18.79***–27.47***–18.99***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
ASVAB219.53***16.31***17.97***16.37***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.001)
Own education–18.37***–12.72***–8.63***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Mother’s–2.70–2.24
education(0.129)(0.210)
Father’s1.993.31*
education(0.268)(0.063)
Number of0.160.089
suspensions(0.269)(0.544)
Number of17.05***14.61***
charges(0.000)(0.000)
Number of–1.48–1.50
arrests(0.123)(0.118)
Number of1.642.56
incarcerations(0.724)(0.594)
R20.01990.06610.08310.8730.9110.997
N2,7422,1452,6952,1101,5911,567

Ordinary least squares regression, weeks unemployed, men

Coefficients(P value)
Constant36.25***32.27***108.56***97.92***25.74***72.16***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.002)(0.000)
Black49.01***39.03***46.21***41.49***40.32***42.06***
(0.001)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Hispanic9.37***1.895.98**2.604.787.40*
(0.001)(0.553)(0.028)(0.412)(0.218)(0.056)
Incarceration3.423.874.413.80
(dummy)(0.379)(0.348)(0.379)(0.325)
ASVAB–12.58***–6.54***–10.40***–6.57***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.001)
ASVAB24.99***4.62***5.16***4.94***
(0.001)(0.003)(0.003)(0.004)
Own education–5.73***–5.17***–4.50***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Mother’s1.091.44**
education(0.102)(0.034)
Father’s–1.08*–0.47
education(0.081)(0.441)
Number of0.27***0.22***
suspensions(0.002)(0.007)
Number of4.37***3.29***
charges(0.000)(0.002)
Number of–0.23–0.28
arrests(0.534)(0.450)
Number of0.731.16
incarcerations(0.679)(0.523)
R20.08980.12410.12300.14640.15060.1655
N3,0422,3762,9902,3371,7801,754

Negative binomial regression, weeks unemployed, men

Coefficient (P value)
Constant–2.50***–2.67***–0.819***–1.30***–3.06***–2.19***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Black0.913***0.689***0.856***0.737***0.746***0.771***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Hispanic0.243***0.0740.158**0.0750.1350.163
(0.000)(0.375)(0.022)(0.367)(0.197)(0.122)
Incarceration0.016–0.0070.0640.034
(dummy)(0.835)(0.933)(0.410)(0.701)
ASVAB–0.293***–0.158***–0.271***–0.192***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
ASVAB20.114***0.100**0.132***0.124***
(0.004)(0.012)(0.004)(0.007)
Own education–0.139***–0.110****–0.088***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Mother’s0.038**0.047***
education(0.032)(0.007)
Father’s–0.027*–0.015
education(0.098)(0.357)
Number of0.006***0.005***
suspensions(0.000)(0.005)
Number of0.136***0.116***
charges(0.000)(0.000)
Number of–0.009–0.012
arrests(0.492)(0.364)
Number of0.0290.063
incarcerations(0.617)(0.290)
Pseudo R20.00700.01090.01180.01333,1400.0152
N3,0452,3782,9922,3391,7801,754

Sample summary statistics

VariableObservationsMeanSDMinMax
Work year8,9843.894.000 (2000)17 (2017)
ASVAB7,093−3.88e-171.00−1.621.88
Own education8,86713.553.04020
Total number of suspensions8,9846.1220.650600
Total number of charges8,9840.671.57017
Total weeks of unemployment6,24049.8769.650651
Total weeks of nonemployment6,240129.38168.550828
Total weeks of employment6,240441.71243.830835
Total weeks in labor force6,240491.58242.440835
Total work history weeks5,316665.63169.123987