<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are expected to introduce numerous benefits for future mobility. These potential benefits and many others vary substantially by the market share of AVs. Therefore, this research empirically estimates, using the Gompertz function, the projected growth rates of passenger vehicles in Hungary using historical patterns of human-driven vehicle ownership data based on projected per capita GDP. This study’s contribution to the literature is through a mathematical approach that predicts passenger cars market penetration rate, in which the assumptions and the used parameters of the model can be easily modified based on different case studies, or they can be updated due to the advancement in technology and progress in knowledge of the studied market.</p>
</abstract>

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are expected to introduce numerous benefits for future mobility. These potential benefits and many others vary substantially by the market share of AVs. Therefore, this research empirically estimates, using the Gompertz function, the projected growth rates of passenger vehicles in Hungary using historical patterns of human-driven vehicle ownership data based on projected per capita GDP. This study’s contribution to the literature is through a mathematical approach that predicts passenger cars market penetration rate, in which the assumptions and the used parameters of the model can be easily modified based on different case studies, or they can be updated due to the advancement in technology and progress in knowledge of the studied market.

Prediction of Vehicle Ownership Growth Using Gompertz Model, Case Study of Hungary

Budapest University of Technology and Economics

System Safety: Human - Technical Facility - Environment

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are expected to introduce numerous benefits for future mobility. These potential benefits and many others vary substantially by the...

Prediction of Vehicle Ownership Growth Using Gompertz Model, Case Study of Hungary

Published Online: Dec 31, 2022

Page range: 164 - 169

Received: Dec 14, 2021

Accepted: Jun 22, 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/czoto-2022-0017

Keywords
forecast, market penetration, passenger cars

© 2022 Adam Torok, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Prediction of Vehicle Ownership Growth Using Gompertz Model, Case Study of Hungary

Published Online: Dec 31, 2022

Page range: 164 - 169

Received: Dec 14, 2021

Accepted: Jun 22, 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/czoto-2022-0017

Keywordsforecast, market penetration, passenger cars

© 2022 Adam Torok, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Keywords
forecast, market penetration, passenger cars