Study of the Impact of Housing Affordability on the Fertility Rate in Bulgaria (2014–2021): A Regional Aspect

The present study is devoted to the influence of housing affordability on the fertility rate in Bulgaria. Both data published by NSI and data obtained by individual request were used. Housing affordability is a factor and is represented as the ratio of the average price of a 70 m² apartment and the average gross salary of an employed person, as well as the ratio of the average housing price and the average income per person in a household. Fertility has the role of an outcome variable and is represented by the gross fertility rate, average age of the mother at the birth of the first child and at the birth of a child, number of live births by age of the mother and total fertility rate. Such lag values of the factor variable were used due to the long period from the moment of availability of housing to its acquisition, completion, furnishing and commissioning, and the long biological period from the decision to implement reproductive intentions to the birth of a child. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to assess the direction and strength of the relationship. A strong negative relationship is found between housing affordability and fertility rate, except for the relationship with the total fertility rate, which is weakly positive. The change in the lag has a minimal effect on the value of the correlation coefficients. Therefore, a conclusion can be made that children are mostly born where housing affordability is low and parents are forced to raise them in unsuitable housing conditions.