1. bookVolume 36 (2017): Issue 36 (June 2017)
Journal Details
First Published
22 Dec 2008
Publication timeframe
4 times per year
access type Open Access

Factors Affecting Fertility – New Evidence from Malaysia

Published Online: 03 May 2017
Page range: 7 - 20
Received: 24 Feb 2016
Accepted: 02 Feb 2017
Journal Details
First Published
22 Dec 2008
Publication timeframe
4 times per year

This research paper investigates long and short term determinants of fertility rates in Malaysia based on basic macroeconomic variables for the period 1980-2014 using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The study reveals that over a long term period, all the selected variables (GDP, infant mortality rate, females’ education and employment) have had significant and negative impact on total fertility rates. Whilst during the short term period, only the infant mortality rate has had a positive impact. Since population growth is partly determined by fertility rates, efforts to increase population in Malaysia should consider factors that affect those rates.


Acemoglu, D. and Johnson, F., 2007: Disease and development: The effect of life expectancy on economic growth. In: Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 15, Issue 6, pp. 925-985.Search in Google Scholar

Bahmani, O.M. and Bohl, M.T., 2000: German monetary unification and stability of the German M3 money demand function. In: Economics Letters, Vol. 66, Issue 2, pp. 203-208. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00223-2Search in Google Scholar

Banerjee, A.J., Dolado, J. and Mestre, R.,1998: Error- correction mechanism tests for cointegration in single-equation framework. In: Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 19, Issue 3, pp. 267-283. DOI: http://dx-.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00091Search in Google Scholar

Barro, R. and Lee, J.W., 2010: International data on educational attainment: Updates and implications. Department of Economics, Harvard University, available at: http://www.cid.harvard.edu/ciddataSearch in Google Scholar

Becker, G.S. and Lewis, H.G., 1973: On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. In: Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 81, Issue 2, pp. 267-283.Search in Google Scholar

Becker, G.S., 1960: An economic analysis of fertility - Demographic and economic changes in developed countries, Princeton: Princeton University Press, NBER, NJ.Search in Google Scholar

Becker, G.S., 1992: Fertility and the economy. In: Population Economics, Vol. 5, pp. 185-201.Search in Google Scholar

Brewster, K.L. and Rindfuss, R.R., 2000: Fertility and women’s employment in industrialized nations. In: Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 26, pp. 271-296. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.26.1.271Search in Google Scholar

Cervellati, M. and Sunde, U., 2011: Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition. In: Journal of Economic Growth, Volume 16, Issue 2,pp. 99-133. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10887-011-9065-2Search in Google Scholar

Chaudary, R.H., 1982: Social aspects of fertility: With special reference to development countries, New Delhi: Vikas Publishing House Pvt. Ltd.Search in Google Scholar

Collier, P., Edwards, A.C., Roberts, J. and Bardhan, K., 1994: Gender aspects of labour allocation during structural adjustment - A theoretical framework and the African experience. In: Horton, S., Kanbar, R. and Mazumdar, D. editors, Labour markets in an era of adjustment. Vol. 1,Washington DC: World Bank, pp. 277-345.Search in Google Scholar

Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., 1981: Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. In: Econometrica , Vol. 49, Issue 4, pp. 1057-1072. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1912517Search in Google Scholar

El Deeb, B., 1988: Quantitative analysis of the relationship between child mortality and fertility in Egypt, Sudan, Kenya and Lesotho. In: African Population Conference, Dakar, pp. 17-32.Search in Google Scholar

Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J., 1987: Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. In: Econometrica, Volume 55, Issue 2, pp. 251-276. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913236Search in Google Scholar

Espenshade, T.J., Guzman, J.C. and Westoff, C.F., 2003: The surprising global variation in replacement fertility. In: Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 22, Issue 5/6, pp. 575-583, available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40230841Search in Google Scholar

Frini, O. and Muller, C., 2012: Demographic transition, education and economic growth in Tunisia. In: Economic Systems, Vol. 36, Issue 3, pp. 351-371. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.04.002Search in Google Scholar

Gavin J., Angelique, C. and Patricia, S., 2009: Very low fertility in Pacific Asian countries. In: Gavin, J., Angelique, C. and Patricia, S. editors, Ultra-Low Fertility in Pacific Asia: Trends, Causes and Policy Dilemmas, Abingdon: Routledge, pp. 1-22.Search in Google Scholar

Johansen, S. and Juselius, K., 1990: Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. In: Oxford Bulletin Economic Statistics, Vol. 52, Issue 2, pp. 169-210. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.xSearch in Google Scholar

Kollehlon, K.T., 1984: Women’s work role and fertility in Liberia. Journal of the International African Institute, Vol. 54, Issue 4, pp. 31-45, available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1160395Search in Google Scholar

Lehrer, E. and Nerlove, M., 1986: Female labor force behavior and fertility in the United States. In: Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 12, pp. 181-204, available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2083200Search in Google Scholar

Mah, J.S., 2000: An empirical examination of the disaggregated import demand of Korea: The case of information technology products. In: Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 11, Issue 2, pp. 22-37. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(00)00053-1Search in Google Scholar

Masih, A.M.M. and Masih, R., 1999: Is a significant socioeconomic structural change a prerequisite for ‘initial’ fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction modelling approach. In: Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 11, Issue 2, pp. 463-87, available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20007641Search in Google Scholar

Masih, A.M.M. and Masih, R., 2000: The dynamics of fertility, family planning and female education in a developing economy. In: Applied Economics, Vol. 32, Issue 12, pp.1617-27. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/000368400419005Search in Google Scholar

Mason, K.O. and Palan, V.T., 1981: Female employment and fertility in peninsular Malaysia: The maternal role incompatibility hypothesis reconsidered. In: Demography, Vol.18, Issue 14, pp. 549-575. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2060947Search in Google Scholar

Michalski, T., 2006: Environmental health as a factor of local development. In: Acta Facultatis Studiorum Humanitatis et Naturae Universitatis Prešoviensis, Folia Geographica, Vol. 10, pp. 355-359.Search in Google Scholar

Michalski, T., 2006: Proposition of Regional Level of Public Heath System. In: Lesechko, M. and Michalski, T. editors, Theoretical Aspects of Regional Development in Ukraine and Poland, Lviv: Regional Institute of Public Administration National Academy of Public Administration Office of the President of Ukraine.Search in Google Scholar

Michniewicz-Ankiersztajn, H., Grzelak-Kostulska and E., Hołowiecka, B., 2013: Territorial diversity of causes of burden of diseases in the chosen European countries on the background of life expectancy. In: Journal of health sciences, 3(14), pp. 165-177.Search in Google Scholar

Mosayeb, P. and Mohammad, R., 2009. Sources of inflation in Iran: an application of the ARDL approach. In: International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Vol. 6(1), pp. 61-76.Search in Google Scholar

Narayan, P.K., 2006: Determinants of female fertility in Taiwan, 1966-2001: Empirical evidence from cointegration and variance decomposition analysis. In: Asian Economic Journal, Vol. 20, Issue 4, pp. 393-407. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8381.2006.00241.xSearch in Google Scholar

Narayan, P.K. and Peng, X., 2006: An econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952- -2000. In: Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Vol. 4, Issue 2, pp. 165-83. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14765280600737039Search in Google Scholar

Narayan, P.K., 2005: The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. In: Applied Economics, Vol. 37, Issue 17,pp. 1979-90. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103Search in Google Scholar

Narayan, P.K. and Peng, X., 2007: Japan’s fertility transition: empirical evidence from the bounds testing approach to cointegration. In: Japan and the World Economy, Volume 19, Issue 2, pp. 263-278. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/1016/j.japwor.2006.02.002Search in Google Scholar

Odhiambo, N.M., 2009: Energy consumption and economic growth in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach. In: Energy Policy, Vol. 37, Issue 2, pp. 617-622. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.077Search in Google Scholar

Ozturk, I. and Acaravci, A., 2011: Electricity consumption and real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach for 11 MENA countries. In: Applied Energy, Vol. 88, Issue 8, pp. 2885-2892. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.01.065Search in Google Scholar

Pesaran, M.H. and Pesaran, B., 1997: Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive econometric analysis, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y., 1999: An autoregressive distributed lag-modeling approach to co-integration analysis. In: Strom, S. editor, Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, J.R., 2001: Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. In: Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, Issue 3, pp. 289-326. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.616Search in Google Scholar

Phillips, P.C.B. and Perron, P., 1988: Testing for a unit root in time series regressions. In: Biometrika, Vol. 75, Issue 2, pp. 335-346. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335Search in Google Scholar

Preston, S.H., 1978: The effects of infant and child mortality on fertility, New York: Academic Press.Search in Google Scholar

Richter, K. and Adlakha, A., 1989: The effect of infant and child mortality on subsequent fertility. In: Journal of Population and Social Studies, Vol.2, Issue 1, pp. 43-62.Search in Google Scholar

Rindfuss, R.R. and Brewster, K.L., 1996: Childrearing and fertility. In: Population and Development Review, Vol. 75,pp. 258-289. DOI: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2808014Search in Google Scholar

Rutstein, S.O. and Medica, V., 1975:The effects of infant and child mortality in relation to the level of fertility in Latin America. In: Seminar on infant mortality in relation to the level of fertility, CICRED, pp. 473-513.Search in Google Scholar

Scrimshaw, S., 1978: Infant mortality and behaviour in the regulation in the family size. In: Population and Development Review, Vol. 4, Issue 3, pp. 383-404, available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1972856Search in Google Scholar

Shahbaz, M., Tang, C. and Shabbir, M.S., 2011: Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches. In: Energy Policy, Vol. 39, Issue 6, pp. 3529-3536. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.052Search in Google Scholar

Singarimbun, M. and Hull, H., 1977: Social Response to high mortality which acts to support high mortality. In: IUSSP Mexico, pp. 225-239.Search in Google Scholar

Standing, G., 1983: Women’s work activity and fertility. In: Bulatao Lee, R.D. editors, Determinants of fertility in developing countries: A summary of knowledge, Issue 1, New York: Academic Press, pp. 517-545.Search in Google Scholar

Syamala, T.S., 2001: Relationship between infant and child mortality and fertility - An Enquiry into Goan Women. In: Indian Journal of Pediatrics, Vol. 68, Issue 12, pp. 1111-1115. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02722920Search in Google Scholar

Tang, T.C. and Nair, M., 2002: A co-integration analysis of Malaysian import demand function: Reassessment from the bounds test. In: Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 5, pp. 23-31. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504850110073471Search in Google Scholar

United-Nations, 1987: Fertility behaviour in the context of development - Evidence from the world fertility survey, New York: Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Studies 100.Search in Google Scholar

Weinberger, M.B., 1987: The relationship between women’s education and fertility: Selected findings from the world fertility surveys. In: International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol.9, Issue 5, pp. 35-46. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2947826Search in Google Scholar

Ying, L.S., 1992: Determinants of fertility in Malaysia - How much do we know? In: Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 23, Issue 1, pp. 112-132, available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20071400,Search in Google Scholar

Recommended articles from Trend MD

Plan your remote conference with Sciendo