<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – This study sought to assess the impact of an increased historical fixed VAT rate of 14% to the current rate of 15% on the South African economy.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – The method applied in this study was based on a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the impact of both the VAT rate of 14% and a new rate of 15% on the South African economy. The CGE model has been proven over the years to be a suitable model when evaluating the impact assessment of any shock within an economy. Enhancements were made by the researcher to the direct and indirect tax section of the model, i.e., the direct tax section was disaggregated, such that for both firm and household revenues, a dividend income stream is separated from other income streams. The main reason is to facilitate a detailed analysis of Corporate Income Tax (CIT) and Personal Income Tax (PIT), as well as the latest implemented Dividend Tax (DT).
<bold>Findings</bold> – When VAT was increased from 14% to 15%, the immediate reaction of the shock from the Dynamic CGE model indicates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.0002% in 2018, but increased by 0.0028% in the following year (2019). The trend continued until 2021, hence the 1% increase in the VAT tax rate will increase the expected forecast of VAT collection by approximately R3.2 billion on average.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – The findings of this study will be implemented by the South African government, which will use a dynamic CGE model to assess South Africa’s VAT contribution to the economy. The database of the CGE model was limited to the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2015.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – The study recommends the use of this method for assessing the impact of tax policy changes to the South African economy. The CGE model seems to be the best model as far as the impact assessment of a shock in the economy is concerned. This will assist the South African authorities with their decision making regarding future VAT revenue.
</abstract>

Contribution of VAT to economic growth: A dynamic CGE analysis

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – Internal whistleblowing is the most desirable form of reporting about wrongdoings for all kinds of organizations. The aim of this paper is to identify factors influencing the occurrence of internal whistleblowing and to provide recommendations for practitioners on how to encourage employees to report wrongdoings to an organization.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – The fundamental article database has been constructed with the use of ProQuest, EBSCO and Taylor &amp; Francis databases. The timespan for the research was from 1990 to 2022. The papers for the fundamental database were found within the utilization of two words “whistleblowing” in titles and “internal” in abstracts. Next, the database was broadened by snowball review.
<bold>Findings</bold> – Identified factors important for the occurrence of internal whistleblowing in an organization were assigned to one of the following areas: ethics, leadership, policies and procedures, retaliations and safeguards, social climate, organizational justice, education and training, reporting channels, communication, additional motivation, organization’s size and structure, audit committee.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – For researchers – the paper provides a picture of research on internal whistleblowing: identified factors influencing internal whistleblowing, popularity of exploring problems, and utilizing research methods. For practitioners – the paper provides practical implications (based on current knowledge) important for implementing and managing organizational whistleblowing systems in the organization of private and public sectors.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – The main contribution of this work states the framework of factors affecting internal whistleblowing, which was constructed on the basis of a systematic review of the scientific literature. Moreover, the paper provides guidelines for practitioners.
</abstract>

Factors influencing internal whistleblowing. A systematic review of the literature

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – This research presents a conceptual stakeholder accountability model for mapping the project actors to the conduct for which they should be held accountable in artificial intelligence (AI) projects. AI projects differ from other projects in important ways, including in their capacity to inflict harm and impact human and civil rights on a global scale. The in-project decisions are high stakes, and it is critical who decides the system’s features. Even well-designed AI systems can be deployed in ways that harm individuals, local communities, and society.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – The present study uses a systematic literature review, accountability theory, and AI success factors to elaborate on the relationships between AI project actors and stakeholders. The literature review follows the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement process. Bovens’ accountability model and AI success factors are employed as a basis for the coding framework in the thematic analysis. The study uses a web-based survey to collect data from respondents in the United States and Germany employing statistical analysis to assess public opinion on AI fairness, sustainability, and accountability.
<bold>Findings</bold> – The AI stakeholder accountability model specifies the complex relationships between 16 actors and 22 stakeholder forums using 78 AI success factors to define the conduct and the obligations and consequences that characterize those relationships. The survey analysis suggests that more than 80% of the public thinks AI development should be fair and sustainable, and it sees the government and development organizations as most accountable in this regard. There are some differences between the United States and Germany regarding fairness, sustainability, and accountability.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – The results should benefit project managers and project sponsors in stakeholder identification and resource assignment. The definitions offer policy advisors insights for updating AI governance practices. The model presented here is conceptual and has not been validated using real-world projects.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – The study adds context-specific information on AI to the project management literature. It defines project actors as moral agents and provides a model for mapping the accountability of project actors to stakeholder expectations and system impacts.
</abstract>

Stakeholder-accountability model for artificial intelligence projects

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – This paper analyses the impact of excise tax on the South African economy by means of a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. We utilised a policy simulation to evaluate the effects of an excise tax, with the results indicating that the rise in excise tax should not impinge on lower revenue households, as long as the greater government revenue flows to those households.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – The model applied in this study includes a specific database composed of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) constructed from data for the period 2010. A specific indirect tax block was disaggregated in such a way that VAT, excise tax and fuel levy taxes could be analysed. The household sector was further subdivided into 14 different revenue households.
<bold>Findings</bold> – The simulation results indicate that GDP is linked to certain variables, for example absorption and consumption, which are negatively marked by the short run settings. The trend changed positively from the base year 2018 to the following year 2019 with a constant increase until 2023. The main reason for the increase is that the change in investment proportionally affects the total absorption in the market system.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – The CGE model has been used extensively by the researchers for economic analyses of various projects. The production data constitute the main limitation, as Statistics South Africa has delayed collecting recent data. For this reason, data for the year 2010 were used in the SAM as the database for the CGE model.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – The specific economic tool, i.e. the dynamic CGE model, used in this study was seen to be the best model as far as an analysis of the excise tax was concerned. This model has never been used to study the excise tax in South Africa before, although Erero (2015) analysed the effects of increases in VAT through a dynamic CGE model, and found that the percentage increase in VAT would not affect lower revenue households negatively if the higher government revenue flowed to those households.
</abstract>

Impact of excise tax on the South African economy: A dynamic CGE approach

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – Exchange rate volatility has remained a serious issue affecting economic stability, especially in developing countries. Thus, this study aimed at examining the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – The study employed the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique to analyse the time series data from the period January 1980 to December 2017. The study used the Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Philips–Perron tests to determine the presence of a unit root and the Johansen co-integration test to establish the relationship among the variables in the study.
<bold>Findings</bold> – The results of the estimates offer evidence that exchange rate volatility persists throughout the study period, and has a negative and significant effect on the economic growth of Nigeria. This result suggests that excessive volatility due to low inflows is inimical to the growth of the Nigeria economy. The findings of the study demonstrate a negative and significant relationship between inflation and economic growth. Moreover, while credit to the private sector and crude oil prices exerts positive and significant relationship with growth, the relationship between money supply, trade openness and government expenditure and economic growth is positive but insignificant.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – Therefore, it is important for the government to pursue policies and programs that would help ensure exchange rate stability and boost local production for both consumption and export. In addition, a holistic program of economic reforms is important to complement the exchange rate policy and stimulate economic growth.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – The study shed some light on exchange rate volatility and confirmed its adverse effect and the importance of a stable environment on economic growth. In addition, the study introduced crude oil prices as a variable to the study of exchange rate volatility and economic growth from a developing country perspective.
</abstract>

The impact of exchange rate volatility on the Nigerian economic growth: An empirical investigation

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – Cultural differences play an influential role in driving tourism development and varying outcomes of technology acceptance. The impact of ChatGPT on tourism is yet to be explored. Therefore, this study discussed how ChatGPT may influence tourism development and management in different cultural contexts.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – Drawing specifically on individualism and collectivism from Hofstede’s cultural dimensions theory, this study compared the differences in the perception of ChatGPT between Oriental and Western cultures.
<bold>Findings</bold> – Individualism and collectivism explain the diversity of perception on ChatGPT between Oriental and Western cultures.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – Implications and suggestions are provided to academia and industry accordingly. Particularly, the difference between technological concepts and tools is highlighted to avoid having excessive expectations toward tools.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – This study extends the research on tourism and Artificial Intelligence and advocates additional attention to the imperative of cross-cultural differences regarding ChatGPT and tourism.
</abstract>

ChatGPT: Cross-cultural tourism research imperative

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – This study investigated the nexus between labor force dynamics and economic performance in Nigeria, India, and China.
<bold>Design/methodology</bold> – The study used annual time series data spanning from 1991 to 2021 obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI). After the unit root stationarity test, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) was used for the analysis.
<bold>Findings</bold> – Findings from the study support a positive short-run relationship between labor force participation and economic growth in all three countries. However, in China, population growth impacts the economy positively in the long run, while life expectancy at birth negatively impacts the economy in the short run. This is because China’s population is aging. In India, employment in the industrial and service sectors positively impacts the economy in the long run. In the short run, life expectancy at birth influences the economy negatively. Furthermore, in Nigeria, the industrial and service sector employment impact the economy negatively in the long run, though there are positive effects in the short run.
<bold>Research implications</bold> – The Indian government needs policy reforms in the areas of education and health to take advantage of the potential of its youthful population. The Nigerian government requires implementing a wide range of education, investment, and employment-generating policies to foster tangible economic growth. These reforms could help both India and Nigeria take advantage of the potential for demographic change. The Chinese government, already having policy reforms in place, is geared towards improved fertility and population growth for economic growth in the near future. These policies, coupled with the study’s findings, could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the implications of demographic change on economic performance.
<bold>Originality/value contributions</bold> – This analysis explored and compared the demographic potentials of two young countries (India and Nigeria) and an aging, wealthy economy (China) from the working class. Policy lessons for the attainment of demographic dividends are borrowed from China.
</abstract>

Labor force dynamics and economic performance: A case of Nigeria, India, and China

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – The study aims to investigate the role of organizational commitment as a mediator between internal marketing and job performance.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – For this purpose, data were collected from 239 personnel working in the textile sector in Turkiye’s Organized Industrial Zone. The data obtained from the participants through the survey method were examined by explanatory factor analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation, and bootstrap regression analyses.
<bold>Findings</bold> – The findings of the research clearly show that internal marketing practices have a significant impact on job performance. Internal marketing variable explained 52.24% of the change in organizational commitment. However, it has been revealed that organizational commitment has a partial mediating role in the relationship between internal marketing practices and job performance.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – This study has limitations in taking samples from Turkiye, focusing on the textile industry, and using the convenience sampling method.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – These results strongly support the argument that internal marketing practices further increase job performance through organizational commitment.
</abstract>

The mediating role of organizational commitment in the relationship between internal marketing and job performance: Application in Turkiye

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – This paper aims to explore both fuel sales forecasting and the business ecosystem, subsequently reversing the focus to examine the business ecosystem in the context of fuel sales forecasting. Accompanying this research objective are the following research questions: 1) Does the order in which the topics of “business ecosystems” and “fuel sales forecasting” are searched affect the search results? 2) Which keywords frequently co-occur in publications related to “business ecosystems” and “fuel sales forecasting”? 3) What is the relationship between the terms “fuel sales forecasting” and “business ecosystem”?
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – The study employs a hybrid review methodology, utilizing specific queries within the Scopus database to identify research themes and motifs. This hybrid form of literature review integrates the tenets of both bibliometric and structured reviews. In this study, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) framework was employed. The visual analysis was conducted using VOSviewer bibliometric software, with a focus on keywords relevant to the relationship between fuel sales forecasting and business ecosystem terms.
<bold>Findings</bold> – Key findings include the identification of co-occurring keywords in fuel sales forecasting and business ecosystem theory literature. The study reveals research gaps and potential areas for future study in business ecosystems, highlighting the impact of fuel sales forecasting in various economic sectors beyond traditional ones, like forestry, agriculture, and fisheries. Utilizing a hybrid literature study research method, the paper analyses data from scientific publications in the Scopus database and employs VOSviewer software to develop bibliometric maps of keyword co-occurrences.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – The research underscores the broad implications of fuel sales forecasting within a business ecosystem context and identifies areas lacking in-depth study. This study maps scientific publications, identifying the intellectual structure and current research trends. This study contributes to the understanding of fuel sales forecasting within the business ecosystem context as a part of the energy sector transition.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – This paper contributes to the field of science and practice by identifying research areas integrating fuel sales forecasting within the business ecosystem construct. It indicates future promising research avenues for researchers and industry professionals, aiming to guide ongoing research. The article addresses a significant theme that warrants scholarly attention. This study allows researchers to define the research gaps covered by published articles and indicate the directions of scientific development.
</abstract>

Identification of research areas in fuel sales forecasting within the business ecosystem context: A review, theoretical synthesis, and extension

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – In line with the general trend of digitalization and changing customers’ needs and preferences, insurance companies have increasingly applied digital technology to their business. This digital transformation should enhance insurance companies’ efficiency and provide further advantages. Therefore, this study’s main aim is to analyze the current relationship between the digital maturity of Croatian non-life insurers and their efficiency.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – The empirical analysis is based on the data collected via an online survey on a sample of Croatian non-life insurers and from the insurance companies’ financial statements. The data was analyzed using the Digital Maturity Model 5.0 by Forrester Research, Inc., Data Envelopment Analysis, and correlation analysis.
<bold>Findings</bold> – The surveyed Croatian non-life insurance companies have achieved the second level of a four-level digital maturity scale, on average. Although the digital transformation of insurance companies is a promising efficiency driver, the current level of digital maturity of Croatian non-life insurance companies is not positively related to their efficiency.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – The research has implications for insurance companies regarding their path of digital transformation, as well as for the regulators establishing an adequate regulatory framework to encourage the digital development of insurance companies. The objective limits of the research refer to the means of measuring digital maturity and the sample size. The research is limited to the Croatian insurance market.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – Analysis of the efficiency of insurance companies from the information technology perspective is rare in the academic literature, and this issue has not been investigated using a sample of Croatian insurers. The research contributes to advancing knowledge on the relationship between digital maturity and insurance companies’ efficiency.1
</abstract>

The relationship between the digital maturity and efficiency of Croatian non-life insurers: Exploratory research

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – The study delves into the creation and the experience of interactive children’s narratives based on poetry, examining the emerging role of artificial intelligence (AI) as a collaborative partner in storytelling for children. The research questions are: 1) What are the experiences of readers, specifically children’s guardians, with interactive narratives based on children’s poetry?; 2) How do children’s guardians experience inter-active stories co-generated in real-time through conversations with artificial intelligence?; 3) Is it feasible to create a satisfying narrative for children from a specific set of images through the use of AI technology?
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – This paper synthesizes findings from the following studies: a) Qualitative analysis of interactive narratives based on Stanisław Jachowicz’s poems, involving a comprehensive online questionnaire survey, with 80 respondents participating in the latest study; b) An evaluative study focused on real-time interactions with AI-generated interactive narratives based on Stanisław Jachowicz’s poems. This involved 12 participants who provided detailed feedback on their experience; c) An autoethnographic study exploring the creative process of generating children’s narratives from a set of images using AI.
<bold>Findings</bold> – The findings from the exploratory studies suggested that interactive narratives based on poetry would be beneficial for education and the promotion of reading. The interactive narrative can be simply designed (simple mechanics, simple options) and nevertheless, it can evoke a positive user experience. The constructs of telepresence and player agency apply not only to the interactive narrative and the poem that serves as its foundation. The evaluation of the interactive narrative generated by ChatGPT was positive, both as real-time interactive storytelling experienced by the reader with AI and as the interactive narrative created based on a set of images. In the process of generating interactive narratives during real-time interactions, ensuring safety, reliability, and trustworthiness for children is a crucial aspect.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – The research suggests that educational organizations can benefit from introducing interactive narratives based on poetry into children’s curricula. Furthermore, artificial intelligence can be effectively utilized in creating such content, both in the form of traditional interactive narratives presented to children and in real-time interactions with AI. However, it is also important for organizations to develop tools for monitoring children’s safety.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – This paper sheds light on the reader’s experience with interactive narratives based on poetry and highlights the transformative impact of AI on reading and writing in children’s literature, emphasizing how significantly the roles of writers and readers have changed with the introduction of AI. The swift evolution of artificial intelligence raises concerns that vital literary participants – including authors, researchers, publishers, and readers – may not grasp the essential skills and knowledge for utilizing AI. This paper can be helpful for these groups as it provides clues on how to produce good prompts, leading to the creation of children’s narratives.
</abstract>

Empirical insights into traditional and AI-enhanced interactive narratives based on children’s fables

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of HRM practices on OCB-I (altruism and courtesy) and OCB-O (sportsmanship, conscientiousness, and civic virtue) by examining the mediating role of organizational justice perceptions (i.e., distributional, procedural, and interactional justice) and the moderating role of gender.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – The study is based on a national sample of 10 organizations from the banking industry in Kosovo and data were obtained from 459 employees. The statistical method involved regression analyses by constructing 14 different models through controlling demographics and the Sobel test for testing the moderator hypotheses.
<bold>Findings</bold> – The findings of the study suggest that there are positive relations between HRM practices and both OCB-I and OCB-O. Additionally, HRM practices show positive relations with justice perceptions, while justice perceptions show positive relations with both OCB-I and OCB-O. Furthermore, justice perceptions play a mediating role in the relationship between HRM practices and both OCB-I and OCB-O. Gender moderates the relationship between HRM practices and justice perceptions, showing a positive relationship for females but a negative one for males. Lastly, gender also moderates the relationship between justice perceptions and OCB-O, being positive for males but negative for females.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – Limitations of this study include uncertainties in determining the most suitable HRM practices for assessing their impact on OCBs, potential method bias from the limited sample, and limited generalizability beyond Kosovo’s banking sector due to cultural variations.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – This study provides a comprehensive understanding of HRM practices, organizational justice, and OCBs within Kosovo’s banking sector. The findings not only contribute to theoretical knowledge but also offer practical insights for Kosovan commercial banks, emphasizing the importance of evaluating HRM practices and justice perceptions to enhance employee behaviors crucial for organizational success.
</abstract>

The impact of HRM practices on OCB-I and OCB-O, with mediating roles of organizational justice perceptions: Moderating roles of gender

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – The demographic dividend, defined as the proportion of working age to the rest of the population, is an opportunity seen mainly in developing countries, resulting from demographic transition. Efforts to maximize gains from it are crucial, especially for the Arabian Gulf states, where labor force demands are met at the danger of native youth unemployment that leads to issues of human resources utilization. This research on Saudi Arabian demographic dividend aims at tracking changes in the age structure, labor force participation, and prospects leading to economic gains.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – Data from various sources such as censuses (1974, 1992, 2004, and 2010), national labor force surveys 1999-2017 and United Nations (UN) Population Prospects are compiled and statistically analyzed with a historical approach for calculations of age distribution, median age, and labor force participation adopting standard procedures.
<bold>Findings</bold> – An age structural transition occurred: percentage of population 15-64 years increased from 47.2% to 67.3%, increasing the dividend from 89.6% to 205.5%. This influenced the labor force’s sectoral distribution, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per working age population.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – The dividend’s first phase, since 2000, is expected to last until 2050, followed by the second dividend which may last longer. Along with the dividend, there shall be policies executed to reap the benefits, including scientifically planned recruitment of potential candidates in various professions, both in public and private sectors.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – This research concerns a population, which is unexplored in detail, especially at a macro level. Thus, such an in-depth analysis seeks importance in revealing special demographic dimensions to a wider international audience. There are no such studies conducted in Saudi Arabia, with a national perspective helpful for revamping efforts to boost labor force reforms and to make maximum gain during the short-lived demographic dividend period.
</abstract>

Demographic dividend in Saudi Arabia: From age structural changes to economic gains

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – Disasters or catastrophic events create unforeseen circumstances and require new approaches from local and national administrations in addressing the negative impacts on society and the economy. Determining the role of e-government in providing the kind of services that are especially needed has become particularly relevant during COVID-19. This paper aims to assess the progress and current state of research on the role of e-government during or in the aftermath of catastrophic events. The purpose of this research is twofold: one, to benefit scholars by providing directions and a basis for further research, and two, to offer guidance to decision-makers involved with disaster management.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – The methodology used in this study is a systematic literature review. Multiple databases, including EBSCO, Elsevier, Emerald, JSTOR, Google Scholar, SAGE, ScienceDirect, Scopus, Springer, Taylor and Francis, and Wiley Online Library were searched for appropriate papers. In total, 36 papers published between 2004 and 2022 met our inclusion criteria and were analyzed.
<bold>Findings</bold> – The study produced three types of findings. First, an analysis of the themes and trends in the existing literature. Second, a synopsis of the published research findings in the reviewed papers. And third, a description of the needs and opportunities for further research.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – This study should help other researchers in directing their efforts in further exploration, and it should help people involved with real-life disaster management to navigate through the effective role and application of e-government. The main limitation is that we found only 36 research papers that met our inclusion criteria.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – Despite the potentially critical role that e-government may have in mitigating the negative effects of catastrophic events, research on e-government in disaster management seems to be still underdeveloped, and to our knowledge, there is no published systematic review of such research.
</abstract>

The role of e-government in disaster management: A review of the literature

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – The underground economy is a major challenge across the world affecting both developed and developing economies. South Africa is no exception to this phenomenon and has lost billions of rands due to the underground economy. The aim of this study is to estimate the size of the underground economy in South Africa.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – The study used quarterly time series data from 2000 to 2020 and employed the Currency Demand Approach (CDA) for modeling the underground economy.
<bold>Findings</bold> – The model results revealed that the underground economy is positively influenced by unemployment rate, tax burden, and social benefits granted by the government, however it is negatively influenced by Nominal Gross Domestic Product (NGDP), deposit interest rate, and self-employment rate. Furthermore, the study showed that there was a distinct growth of the underground economy, from 23.9% of GDP in 2003 to 34.5% of GDP in 2019. On average, the underground economy represented 28.8% of GDP for the period 2003 to 2020.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – This model can be used in conjunction with other models to observe the trend in the South African underground economic activities. The South African government should take note of the spiraling growth of this economy and come up with measures to curb this growth to protect the formal economy.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – This study makes a significant contribution to the body of knowledge in this research area and provides much needed insights into the magnitude of the underground economy and the extent of tax evasion in South Africa.
</abstract>

A statistical approach to modeling the underground economy in South Africa

<abstract>
<title style='display:none'>Abstract</title>
<bold>Aim/purpose</bold> – The paper has two objectives. The first is to examine the profitability of applying investment strategies based on “buy” and “sell” recommendations issued by stock market analysts. The second objective is to validate that analysts who issue a recommendation may not be impartial (not supporting any of the sides involved in an argument) because the largest group of recommendations issued is “buy” recommendations.
<bold>Design/methodology/approach</bold> – This study was conducted based on all the “buy” and “sell” recommendations issued during the period between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2016 for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, using data from <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="http://www.bankier.pl">www.bankier.pl</ext-link>. The annual forecast rates of return were determined for all the recommendations included in the survey. The expected rates of return were determined for each recommendation based on the information collated from the Bloomberg database. The regression analysis enabled the exploration of the relationship between the actual rates of return and the rates of return predicted in recommendations.
<bold>Findings</bold> – It was determined that investing on the basis of the information included in “sell” recommendations might make it possible to avoid unprofitable investments. At the same time, the study shows that an investment strategy compliant with “buy” recommendations does not let the investor achieve the expected rates of return on an investment in the capital market in the long term.
<bold>Research implications/limitations</bold> – The conducted research could be an important source of information for stock market investors’ decision-making regarding investments.
<bold>Originality/value/contribution</bold> – Despite the topic of recommendation effectiveness being very important from the perspective of capital market theory and practice, it is still unclear whether investing based on information provided in stock market recommendations can be a profitable strategy in the long run. The study offers a bridge to fill the existing research gap.
</abstract>

Journal of Economics and Management

The Journal of University of Economics in Katowice

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