This article conducts a dynamic simulation on new agricultural product networks’ psychological selection based on the evolutionary game theory. Aiming at the characteristics of fresh agricultural products, the article analyses the dynamic evolution process of consumers’ strategic choice psychological state in the model. The research results show that the new agricultural products platform and the seller's strategic choice for the quality of the product are closely related to the output ratio of the input to the quality of the product. The users of fresh agricultural products are organically related through various network information behaviours, forming a networking group with a particular topological structure relationship.
Keywords
 fresh agricultural products
 online shopping psychology
 dynamic simulation model
 quality investment
 evolutionary game
MSC 2010
 91A80
The prices of certain fresh agricultural products have fluctuated sharply in recent years. At the same time, some agricultural products are facing the dilemma of oversupply. The large fluctuations in the prices of fresh agricultural products seem to be caused by the imbalance between the supply and demand of these products [1]. When policymakers overestimate the actual market demand in the future, they will increase their production, and this can lead to an oversupply of agricultural products. When policymakers underestimate the future market demand, they will reduce their production, and this can cause the supply of agricultural products to fall short of demand, which would in turn lead to a sharp increase in the prices of agricultural products. Retailers are in a dominant position in the agricultural product supply chain, and suppliers often arrange production according to the retailers’ orders. Behavioural economics research shows that decisionmakers exercise psychological selection that influences the behaviours of buyers of fresh products, which leads to deviations in retailers’ estimates of market demand. The imbalance between the supply and demand of agricultural products is mainly due to the errors of retailers in estimating market demand. Therefore, it is more realistic to study how a retailer's psychological expectations of online shopping for fresh and live products affect the retailer's decisionmaking [2]. This experiment will consider the psychological selection behaviour of fresh product buyers of fresh agricultural product retailers. The strategy adopted in this paper involves studying the evolutionary game process of agricultural product quality investment between the supplier group and the retailer group, solving the evolutionary equilibrium strategy and analysing the impact of a balanced strategy on the psychological expectation and evolution of fresh product online shopping.
Assume that
During the order period, the retailer orders fresh agricultural products from the supplier according to market demand, and the supplier arranges production according to the retailer's order quantity. Assume that the retailer can only order once and does not allow replenishment [5]. The production cost of fresh agricultural products per supplier is
At this time, the two groups of suppliers and retailers make quality investment decisions. The corresponding benefits are as follows:
If both the supplier and the retailer choose not to invest in the quality of agricultural products, their benefits are
If both suppliers and retailers choose a quality investment, the quality of agricultural products will be significantly improved at this time, and the market demand will also increase. At this time, their income is (1 +
When the supplier chooses quality investment, and the retailer does not choose a quality investment, the supplier's income is (1 +
When the supplier does not choose a quality investment, and the retailer chooses a quality investment, the quality of agricultural products can also be improved. The market demand will increase with the increase of its quality investment [7]. In summary, we establish a game payout matrix (Table 1).
Payment matrix for suppliers and retailers
(1 + 
(1 + 

Assuming that the proportion of the new agricultural product supplier group
The evolutionary phases of the evolutionary game process of supplier
In this scenario, the quality investment output of the supplier and the retailer is smaller than that of
In this scenario, the retailer's income from choosing quality investment is far less than the investment cost it pays and will not enable the retailer to choose a quality investment. The ‘free rider’ behaviour of the supplier cannot be implemented. As shown in Figure 1c, (1,0) is an evolutionary stable point, (0,0) and (0,1) are saddle points and (1,1) is an unstable point. Suppliers choose a quality investment, while retailers do not choose an evolutionary and stable strategy [10].
In this scenario, the quality investment–output ratio of the two parties is
Under this scenario, suppliers’ and retailers’ quality investment–output ratio in the agricultural product supply chain is substantial, as shown in Figure 1. Both suppliers and retailers choose quality investment as the system's evolutionary and stable strategy.
Market demand means that retailers overestimate the actual market demand. With the increase of the psychological expectations of retailers for online shopping of fresh and live products, the actual market demand expected by retailers will increase. Therefore, retailers choose quality investments to increase their returns. While rational suppliers can more accurately grasp market demand, they will choose not to invest in quality.
In summary, it can be seen that when the agricultural product quality investment–output ratios of the supplier and the retailer are
We find the partial derivative of
If
If
The more significant the revenue
The more significant the revenue
The article calculates the partial derivatives of
This experiment studies the evolution strategies of the two groups of suppliers and retailers regarding the quality investment decisions of fresh agricultural products when the retailer in the new agricultural product supply chain has the psychological selection behavior of fresh product buyers. When the quality investment–output ratio is constantly changing, the system's multiple evolutionary and stable strategies are obtained. The research results show that the psychological expectation level of retailers’ online shopping of fresh and live products has a significant impact on the evolution and stability of the quality investment in fresh and live agricultural products by suppliers and retailers. In addition, factors such as the quality investment–output ratio of the two parties, the cost of both parties’ choice of quality investment and ‘freeriding’ behaviour also impact the evolution strategies of the two groups in the supply chain.
Payment matrix for suppliers and retailers
(1 + 
(1 + 

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