Volume 24 (2016): Issue 4 (December 2016)

The patterns and relations between real estate prices and the factors which shape them can be presented, among others, in the form of traditional statistical models, as well as by means of geostatistical methods. In the case of research involving the diagnosis and prediction of transaction prices, the key role is played by the spatial aspect, hence the particular significance of geostatistical methods using spatial information.

The main goal of the conducted research is to determine the probability of the occurrence of a price in a given location in space by means of geostatistical simulation - indicator kriging. Indicator kriging does not use the entirety of information included in a dataset, and can, therefore, be useful in situations when the assumptions involving the spatial stationarity of the examined phenomenon are not fulfilled by an entire dataset, but are fulfilled by a certain part of the set. The maps of the probability with which a regionalized variable (price) takes on particular values, limited by arbitrarily selected cutoff values, were prepared by means of indicator kriging. An alternative approach to the preparation of price probability maps is the determination of the spatial distribution of areas in which, with the assumed probability, the value of the price falls within the predetermined ranges.

The paper presents both the essence as well as a theoretical description of the geostatistical simulation of a transaction on the real estate market, as well as the results of an experiment involving the transaction prices of real properties located in the north-western part of the city of Olsztyn.

The result of the research is a set of virtual information about the places in which the transactions have occurred and about the prices of real estate, constituting a reflection of the market processes which may take place in the near future.

The main goal of this paper is to present the role of individual concepts of public management in the process of real estate management in Polish municipalities. Special attention was given to New Public Management (NPM) as well as Good Governance (GG). The paper, apart from a review of literature and its critique, is based on the results of a survey conducted among municipalities belonging to the Kraków Metropolitan Area. This study demonstrates that both the NPM and the GG concepts do not constitute a benchmark model in the practice of municipal real estate management in Poland. The concepts are treated more as a set of tools from which the majority of municipalities choose only some, selected instruments.

The paper presents an analysis of the diversity of real estate development companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange based on the rates of return on their shares which were attained in 2001-2015. The study included 10 real estate development companies. The analysis was conducted for different investment horizons (from 1 year to 10 years), and based on the quartiles of the empirical distributions of the rates of return on the shares of individual companies. The empirical distributions were obtained using a rolling window of observation based on daily share quotation. The diversity of the funds was examined by formulating six hypotheses concerning: the diversity of the quartiles of the distributions of returns on individual funds, the differences between the values of the quartiles of returns for the best and worst companies during each investment horizon, changes in the value of individual quartiles of returns for individual companies along with a lengthening of the investment horizon, differences in the positions of the companies in the rankings of companies based on different investment horizons and having different quartiles being accepted as the criterion for the rankings. The results obtained did not indicate grounds for the rejection of the formulated hypotheses.

The most common method supporting investing on the capital market or making decisions on the real estate market is technical analysis. This article, however, focuses on the less popular fundamental analysis, the importance of which is increasing on internationals markets, especially fully-developed ones.

Fundamental analysis is used for long-term predictions of values of future phenomena, based on historical data and any factors likely to affect the level of supply and demand. The final result of its use is an appraisal the true value of the subject of valuation, or so-called fundamental (intrinsic) value.

Using this method to analyze, diagnose and forecast economic phenomena, as well as become familiar with the market in terms of its fundamentals, positively influences the process of taking investment measures and leads to a better understanding of the real estate market.

The aim of the following study is to describe the possibility of applying fundamental analysis on the real estate market, based on the principles existing on capital markets. This article serves as an introduction to the subject-matter as well as the beginning of series of publications dedicated to different aspects of conducting fundamental analysis in the context of the real estate market.

The growth of both the construction market and the property market depends on various macroeconomic and legal factors, as well as on demographic, institutional, stock and local conditions. The aim of this research was to determine the spatial differentiation, dynamics and determinants of housing development activity in Poland in the context of historical and current legal conditions. This activity was measured, first of all, by the number of construction contracts and the number of completed buildings and dwelling units.

During the research, an attempt was made to establish determinants of construction activity, by analyzing social, demographic and economic factors concerning individual districts. With this aim in view, the study used statistical panel data models, constructed on the basis of data created as a result of combining time series of observations for cross-sectional units.

The results of the research are presented not only in the form of statistical models, but also as a series of cartographic studies, prepared with the application of GIS tools, presenting the current status of housing development activity in Poland.

The article aims to present selected transformations of landscape that follow changes in land use designated by suburban municipalities. Currently, under the pressure of suburbanization, suburban rural municipalities are gradually being transformed into urban-style residential units. Modern and dense residential constructions shape the local landscape by introducing irreversible changes. Directing this process seems to be an important aim for local authorities, which should responsibly apply planning tools and carry out policies which minimize negative changes to the landscape and promote spatial order. In this respect, the paper presents the relationship between the spatial strategy adopted by a municipality and the transformations in the landscape for two selected municipalities: Dywity and Barczewo.

Predicting demand on the residential real estate market and the behavior of the purchasers requires a wide knowledge of both the economic mechanisms and psychology of decision-making. Decisions on the real estate market are often made by people without professional skills, and using simplified strategies. However, the decision-making process, on top of its heuristic nature, is dynamic and changing. As a result, a discrepancy in the preferred characteristics of planned and actually bought real estate can be observed. Such a discrepancy can be explained with the occurrence of the compensation process. The aim of this article was to recognize and describe the compensation process on the example of the suburban residential real estate market. The aim was achieved by analyzing the preferences of potential buyers in terms of particular characteristics of the location of suburban plots destined for single-family housing (respondents divided into age groups: 25 and 26-40), analyzing the real settlement trend in the suburban zone (the result of actual transactions) and comparing the results, including compensation.

Due to the specific characteristics of cities, such as the intensity of the use of space, the supply of green areas is limited. These areas are subjected to constant pressure (demand for new transportation or construction functions), which usually results in their reduction. As a consequence of this, green areas have become a limited asset in urban environments. City dwellers, seeking a high quality of life in the urban environment, pay attention to the proximity of greenery to their place of residence. This is, therefore, a factor that greatly influences market prices of residential real estate. In the study, the dependency of transaction prices of residential premises on the vicinity of urban greenery was subjected to analysis. Additionally, questionnaire studies were conducted with respect to the evaluation of the significance of environmental factors when choosing a place to live, which translates over to the decisions made by consumers on the real estate market.