AHEAD OF PRINT

Current literature on proxy war tends to miss a set of key factors germane to the study and practice of proxy war. First, proxy wars are distinct from coalitions and alliances because proxy wars, unlike the latter, are rooted in offsetting one’s own risk by offloading it to another actor. Next, analysing proxy relationships and risk through agency theory, network theory, and theories of power illuminate five basic models of proxy relationship – coerced, exploited, transactional, cultural and contractual. These models provide a new understanding of how strategic actors can best leverage a proxy. Moreover, these models provide a basic understanding of what specific types of proxies cannot do. For example, coerced and exploited proxies cannot be counted on for complicated work, or long-duration operations. Transactional proxies, given the business agreement between the principal and proxy, can be counted on to go to the razor’s edge together. Nonetheless, task completion accelerates dyad divergence, and mission accomplishment usually results in transactional solvency. Cultural and contractual relationships are tight-bonded, facilitate complicated missions, and can operate for long periods of time. As a result, strategic actors looking to invest in proxy strategies are best served when utilising cultural or contractual proxies.

The process used to determine site suitability for military base camps lacks a formal framework for reducing relative risks to soldier safety and maximise mission effectiveness. Presently, military personnel responsible for determining site suitability of a base camp must assess large amounts of geographic, socioeconomic and logistical data, without a decision analysis framework to aid in the process. By adopting a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to determine site suitability of base camps, battlespace commanders can make better, more defensible decisions. This paper surveys US Army officers with recent base camp experience to develop a set of initial criteria and weights relevant to base camp site selection. The developed decision framework is demonstrated using an MCDA methodology in an illustrative example to compare alternative base camp locations within a designated Area of Interest (AoI). Leveraging the site ranking output and/or criteria weights resulting from the methodology provides decision-making support that can be used in the field when time, resources and data may not be readily available.

The purpose of this article is to present the results of a research which assessed whether the Knowledge Acquisition Programme and the Non-Commissioned Member Executive Professional Development Programme contributed to the Non-Commissioned Members’ effectiveness as senior leaders in the Profession of Arms within the Canadian Armed Forces. Thirty-seven Programme graduates from 2006 to 2015 received a questionnaire containing seven closed-ended general information questions and twelve open-ended programme/course specific questions. Seventeen graduates responded to the questionnaire. Manual coding was used to identify main themes and sub-themes. The research findings determined that both Programmes contributed to the effectiveness of senior leaders in the Profession of Arms within the Canadian Armed Forces. However, some caveats were expressed, and recommendations brought forward to enhance the Programme and to improve its future deliveries.

This study examined whether the Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Act of 2006 affected the United States (US) Coast Guard performance characteristics with respect to incident response. The periods analyzed consisted of a decade before versus a decade after implementation of the legislation. Using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the p-value approach (p < 0.05), six hypotheses were tested to determine whether statistically significant differences in response attributes existed during the 10 years before versus the 10 years following the passing of the legislation. Four significant hypothesis-testing outcomes represented differences in the number of incidents, incident responses, cumulative lives lost, and lives lost after notification.

Retaining qualified personnel is a priority for armed forces, and turnover presents a serious problem. This study uses job embeddedness theory to investigate embeddedness factors, predictability and work–life conflict as predictors of turnover intentions in commissioned officers (COs) and non-commissioned officers (NCOs) in the Royal Norwegian Navy. The study posits that career prospects, community fit, organisational fit and organisational links embed personnel and are associated with a reduction in turnover intentions. In addition, the study proposes a mechanism whereby personnel who experience a predictable work schedule have better work–life balance and subsequently lower turnover intentions. Predictability in turn is hypothesised to be associated with the possibility of flexible hours. Using structural equation modelling, we find that embeddedness factors predicted turnover intentions for both personnel categories, but career prospects were the only significant embeddedness factor for NCOs. Predictability was associated with a reduction in turnover intentions via work–life conflict for both groups. In addition, flexible hours showed an effect on work–life conflict for both groups, but through different mechanisms. Overall, the results point to differential actions to reduce turnover between COs and NCOs in the armed forces and conclude with a priority list for actions to reduce turnover in each personnel group.

This study investigated the relationship between traumatic experiences during peacekeeping operations in Lebanon (UNIFIL) between 1978 – 1998 and post traumatic growth (PTG), recalled and measured 17-38 years after, in a sample of 11 633 Norwegian military. Specifically, the study investigated how victim traumas (lethal danger) and moral traumas (moral failure) related to PTG, measured by the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory (Cann et al., 2010). Emotional distress experienced during the traumas served as a potential mediator of this relationship, and leadership by closest superior a potential moderator of the mediation. The results showed a significant positive relationship between number of victim traumas and PTG, while number of moral traumas did not contribute to explain variance above this effect. The trauma - PTG relationship was partially mediated by emotional distress, but authentic- and laissez faire leadership did not moderate this mediation. In sum, the veterans with most traumatic experiences, as recalled 17-38 years later, had higher PTG, and emotional distress related to trauma mediated this growth. The findings indicate that traumatic experiences may represent a resource for growth and subsequent hope for recovery. Given the retrospective study-design which might have hindered accurate measurement of PTG, advice on future research approaches is included.

This article reports findings from an empirical investigation of the generalization captured in the aphorism that ‘god is on the side with the biggest battalions.’ Departing from the focus on major or decisive battles in previous studies, this quantitative analysis using ordered logit and ordinary least squares regression of two data sets of 945 and 823 large, medium and small engagements between the armies of France and its enemies during the Wars of the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars from 1792 to 1815 reveals that a preponderance of numbers was positively associated with victory but also higher casualties.

In human intelligence, a verbal statement from a source is seldom 100% true or false, and not very often is the source a total liar or a truth teller. From this standing point, a simple dichotomy of a liar or a truth teller might not offer an adequate diagnostic value for the purposes of human intelligence. A more diagnostic approach would be to assess which parts of the predominantly truthful verbal statement are likely to be true and which parts are assessed to be doubtful. In addition, the use of two parallel methods to detect deceit should improve the diagnostic value of the results. A pilot study in laboratory conditions (n = 8, yielding 190 assessment points) utilising an applied mock crime scenario was conducted. Correlation calculations showed that a dual-method approach slightly improved the within-statement truth accuracy, and it was achieved mainly by decreasing the number of false positives. As the truth accuracy was increased, the lie accuracy within the test group slightly decreased. The results confirmed that by applying parallel orienting response (EDA) and cognitive load (speech-related indices)-based assessment methods, it is possible to detect embedded lies successfully in an information-gathering interview setup.

Arguments have been made both for and against military use of autonomous weapon systems (AWSs) on the basis of how they will help or hinder a state in meeting its international humanitarian law (IHL) obligations. Often, these arguments are made in isolation, or they fail to address all of the potential compliance concerns related to autonomous weapons. This is not ideal. It means the bearers of legal obligations must locate, assess and piece together the disparate arguments into a coherent structure if they are to know whether they can legitimately utilise a particular autonomous capability and, if so, in what circumstances. This article offers a high-level description of a conceptual framework which can be used to organise and assess legal arguments about autonomous weapons. It proposes that the task of integrating autonomous capabilities into an armed force may be viewed as a constrained optimisation problem wherein the task is to find the optimal balance between the fundamental principles of IHL while also satisfying all normative, technological and strategic/operational constraints.

In this article, I propose a new contribution to the field of comparative analysis of state conventional military capabilities. First, I review perspectives of other scholars on the merits of comparing capabilities, arguing that the most accessible insights lie in evaluating the signals sent by state arsenals rather than in predicting conflict outcomes judging from state armament. Second, I present the Conventional Firepower Potential Indexing (CFPI) method and demonstrate that coding for tactical role and degree of technological sophistication enables previously unfeasible estimative comparisons of deterrent signalling value. Finally, I apply CFPI analysis to the conventional arsenals of the United States and the four states named in that country’s most recent National Defense Strategy (China, Russia, North Korea and Iran), deriving conclusions that would be elusive without accessible comparative analysis.