Prediction of acute pancreatitis severity via the combined analysis of inflammatory biomarkers and coagulation parameters

Introduction. Timely assessment of severity of acute pancreatitis is needed to avoid severe systemic complications by making optimal therapeutic approach and correct prognosis of the disease. The aim of the study was to establish the role of several inflammatory biomarkers and coagulation parameters in prediction of AP severity, and also to propose a mathematical formula which allows their combined use for the same purpose. Material and Methods. The prospective study included 70 patients with AP. The patients were divided into groups: mild (group I), moderate (group II) and severe AP (group III). All patients were further classified into two groups: group A (mild AP) and group B (moderate and severe AP). Biochemical markers, inflammatory biomarkers and coagulation factors were tested in all patients. Results. Based on the results of Mann-Whitney,s test, it can be concluded that groups A and B are significant different from each other for CRP (p<0.05). Using the Wald’s stepwise forward method, a prediction model with CRP, PCT, D-dimer1, D-dimer3, fibrinogen1 and fibrinogen3 parameters as predictors of the severity of AP was obtained. The percentage of successful prediction of moderate or severe AP based on this model was 76.9%. The use of ROC analysis with the introduced linear combination from the logistic regression yielded equally good or even better results in the assessment of the severity of AP with the combined use of analyzed parameters. Conclusion. The combined analyses of biohumoral markers and coagulation parameters presented in the form a mathematical formula enabled a more accurate, rapid, rational and clinically available prediction of the severity of AP.