1. bookVolume 53 (2019): Issue 6 (December 2019)
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
First Published
19 Aug 2008
Publication timeframe
6 times per year
Languages
English
access type Open Access

Modelling the Bioclimatic Niche and Distribution of the Steppe Mouse, Mus Spicilegus (Rodentia, Muridae), in Ukraine

Published Online: 30 Dec 2019
Page range: 471 - 482
Received: 12 Jun 2019
Accepted: 27 Oct 2019
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
First Published
19 Aug 2008
Publication timeframe
6 times per year
Languages
English

The Steppe mouse, Mus spicilegus, is endemic to Europe and found to be expanding its home range in recent years. In Ukraine there are indications a north- and eastwards expansion and/or reestablishment of M. spicilegus. We suggest that climatic conditions may be the primary factors that foster or limit the range expansion of M. spicilegus in Eastern Europe. Our objective was to complement the knowledge about the distribution of the species with an estimation of the potential distribution of the species in Ukraine using known occurrence sites (in Ukraine and neighbouring areas) and environmental variables in an ecological niche modelling algorithm. After accounting for sampling bias and spatial autocorrelation, we retained 73 occurrence records. The algorithm used in this paper, Maxent (Phillips et al., 2006), is a machine learning algorithm and only needs presence data, besides the environmental layers. Using this approach, we have highlighted the importance and significance of a number of bioclimatic variables, particularly those characterizing wintering conditions, under which higher mean temperatures enhance habitat suitability, whereas increased precipitation leads to an opposite effect. The broadly northwards shift of the home range of the species in Ukraine could generally be due to the increasing (since the 1980s) mean temperature of the winter season. We expect this expansion process will continue together with the changing climate and new records of locations of the species may be used for monitoring such change.

Keywords

Aars, J., Ims, R. A. 2002. Intrinsic and climatic determinants of population demography: the winter dynamics of tundra voles. Ecology, 83 (12), 3449–3456.Search in Google Scholar

Aiello-Lammens, M. E., Boria, R. A., Radosavljevic, A., Vilela, B., Anderson, R. P. 2015. spThin: an R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models. Ecography, 38 (5), 541–545.Search in Google Scholar

Akaike, H. 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans. Automatic Control, 19, 716–723.Search in Google Scholar

Baldwin, R. A. 2009. Use of maximum entropy modeling in wildlife research. Entropy, 11 (4), 854–866.Search in Google Scholar

Beck, J., Ballesteros-Mejia, L., Nagel, P., Kitching, I. J. 2013. Online solutions and the “Wallacean shortfall”: What does GBIF contribute to our knowledge of species’ ranges? Diversity and Distributions, 19 (8), 1043–1050.Search in Google Scholar

Berry, R. J. 1981. Population dynamics of the house mouse. Symposia of the Zoological Society of London, 47, 395–425.Search in Google Scholar

Boonstra, R., Rodd, F. H. 1983. Regulation of breeding density in Microtus pennsylvanicus. Journal of Animal Ecology, 52 (3), 757–780.Search in Google Scholar

Brauner, A. 1928. List of mammals of Askania-Nova. Chapli Steppe Reserve — Askania-Nova. State Publishing House, Moscow, Leningrad, 183–194 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Calisher, C. H., Mills, J. N., Sweeney, W. P., Root, J. J., Reeder, S. A., Jentes, E. S., Beaty, B. J. 2005. Population dynamics of a diverse rodent assemblage in mixed grass shrub habitat, southeastern Colorado, 1995–2000. Journal of Wildlife Diseases, 41 (1), 12–28.Search in Google Scholar

Conrad, O., Bechtel, B., Bock, M., Dietrich, H., Fischer, E., Gerlitz, L., Wehberg, J., Wichmann, V., Böhner, J. 2015. System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA). Vol. 2.1.4. Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 1991–2007.Search in Google Scholar

Coroiu, I., Kryštufek, B., Vohralík, V. 2016. Mus spicilegus. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2016: e.T13984A544549. http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2016-3.RLTS.T13984A544549.enSearch in Google Scholar

Elith, J., Phillips, S. J., Hastie, T., Dudík, M., Chee, Y. E., Yates, C. J. 2011. A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity and Distributions, 11 (1), 43–57.Search in Google Scholar

Evstafiev, I. 2015. Results of a thirty-year study of small mammals of Crimea. Part 1. Introduction, composition of fauna, home ranges. Proceedings of the Theriological School, 12, 20–34 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Fielding, A. H., Bell, J. F. 1997. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation, 24 (1), 38–49.Search in Google Scholar

Franklin, J. 2009. Mapping species distribution: spatial inference and prediction. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1–340.Search in Google Scholar

Guisan, A, Thuiller, W. 2005. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecological Letters, 8 (9), 993–1009.Search in Google Scholar

Hammer, Ø., Harper, D. A. T., Ryan, P. D. 2001. PAST: Paleontological statistics soft ware package for education and data analysis. Palaeontologia Electronica, 4 (1), 1–9.Search in Google Scholar

Hanspach, J., Kühn, I., Pompe, S., Klotz, S. 2010. Predictive performance of plant species distribution models depends on species traits. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 12 (3), 219–225.Search in Google Scholar

Hernandez, P. A., Graham, C. H., Master, L. L., Albert, D. L. 2006. The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods. Ecography, 29 (5), 773–785.Search in Google Scholar

Hölzl, M., Hoi, H., Darolova, A., Krištofik, J., 2011. Insulation capacity of litter mounds built by Mus spicilegus: physical and thermal characteristics of building material and the role of mound size. Ethology, ecology & evolution, 23 (1), 49–59.Search in Google Scholar

Jackson, D. M., Trayhurn, P., Speakman, J. R. 2001. Association between energetics and overwinter survival in short tailed field vole Microtus agrestis. Journal of Animal Ecology, 70 (4), 633–640.Search in Google Scholar

Jobe, R. T., Zank, B. 2008. Modelling species distributions for the Great Smoky Mountains National Park using Maxent. Unpublished, ELECTRONIC FILE: https://idfg.idaho.gov/species/bibliography/1497986.Search in Google Scholar

Kondratenko, A. V. 1998. The Hillock mouse (Mus spicilegus Petenyi, 1882) in the eastern regions of Ukraine. Vestnik Zoologii, 32 (5–6), 133–136 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Kriticos, D. J., Webber, B. L., Leriche, A., Ota, N., Macadam, I., Bathols, J., Scott, J. K. 2012. CliMond: global high resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 3 (1), 53–64.Search in Google Scholar

Lichstein, J. W., Simons, T. R, Shriner, S. A., Franzreb, K. E. 2002. Spatial autocorrelation and autoregressive models in ecology. Ecological Monographs, 72 (3), 445–463.Search in Google Scholar

Lipkovich, A. D. 2005. The Hillock mouse (Mus spicilegus Petenyi, 1882) in the Rostov Region. Bulletin of the Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 1 (4), 51–57 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Liu, C., Berry, P., Dawson, T., Pearson, R. 2005. Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography, 28 (3), 385–393.Search in Google Scholar

Luis, A. D., Douglass, R. J., Mills, J. N., Bjørnstad, O. N. 2010. The effect of seasonality, density and climate on the population dynamics of Montana deer mice, important reservoir hosts for Sin Nombre hantavirus. Journal of Animal Ecology, 79 (2), 462–70.Search in Google Scholar

Lyalyukhina, S. I., Mikhailenko, A. G., Kotenkova, E. V. 1989. Cadastral reference map of the home range of the Hillock mouse (Mus hortulanus Nordm.) in the USSR. In: House mouse. Institute of Evolutionary Morphology and Animal Ecology, Acad. Sci. USSR, Moscow, 28–51 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Merow, C., Smith, M. J., Silander, J. A. Jr. 2013. A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species’ distributions: what it does, and why inputs and settings matter. Ecography, 36 (10), 1058–1069.Search in Google Scholar

Miller, J. 2010. Species Distribution Modeling. Geography Compass, 4 (6), 490–509.Search in Google Scholar

Muntyanu, A. I. 1990. Ecological features of an overwintering population of the Hillock Mouse (Mus hortulanus Nordm) in the South-West of the USSR. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 41 (1–3), 73–82.Search in Google Scholar

Muscarella, R., Galante, P. J., Soley-Guardia, M., Boria, R. A., Kass, J. M., Uriarte, M., Anderson, R. P. 2014. ENMeval: An R package for conducting spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model complexity for Maxent ecological niche models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 5 (11), 1198–1205.Search in Google Scholar

Nakazato, T., Warren, D. L., Moyle, L. C. 2010. Ecological and geographic modes of species divergence in wild tomatoes. American Journal of Botany, 97 (4), 680–693.Search in Google Scholar

Nuñez, M. A., Medley, K. A. 2011. Pine invasions: climate predicts invasion success; something else predicts failure. Diversity and Distributions, 17 (4), 703–713.Search in Google Scholar

Partolin, I. V. 2016. The Hillock mouse (Mus spicilegus Petenyi, 1882) in novel steppe areas in the northeast of the home range. Protection, restoration and study of steppe ecosystems in the XXI century: Materials of the International scientific-practical conference dedicated to the 90th anniversary of the foundation of the Khomutov Steppe Reserve. Publishing House “Knowledge”, Donetsk, 171 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Peterson, A., Soberón, J., Pearson, R., Anderson, R., Martínez-Meyer, E., Nakamura, M., Araújo, M. 2011. Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions. Princeton University Press, 1–328.Search in Google Scholar

Phillips, S. J., Dudík, M. 2008. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31 (2), 161–175.Search in Google Scholar

Phillips, S. J. Anderson, R. P. Schapire, R. E. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190 (3–4), 231–259.Search in Google Scholar

Polishchuk, I. 2012. The Hillock mouse Mus spicilegus (Muridae, Rodentia) in Askania-Nova and the Kherson region. Proceedings of the Theriological School, 11, 71–76 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Rangel, T. F., Diniz-Filho, J. A. F., Bini, L. M. 2006. Towards an integrated computational tool for spatial analysis in macroecology and biogeography. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 15 (4), 321–327.Search in Google Scholar

Ruzhilenko, N. S. 2005. Records of the Hillock mouse, Mus spicilegus (Rodentia, Muridae) in Kanevskiy Nature Reserve and its surroundings. Vestnik Zoologii, 39 (3), 76 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Rykiel, E. J. 1996. Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation. Ecological Modelling, 90 (3), 229–244.Search in Google Scholar

Searcy, C. A., Shaffer, H. B. 2016. Do ecological niche models accurately identify climatic determinants of species ranges? American Naturalist, 187 (4), 423–35.Search in Google Scholar

Simeonovska-Nikolova, D. M. 2000. Strategies in open field behaviour of Mus spicilegus and Mus musculus musculus. Belgian Journal of Zoology, 130 (1), 115–120.Search in Google Scholar

Smirnov, N. A. 2009. New information on the occurrence and ecology of the Hillock mouse (Mus spicilegus) on the territory of Bukovina. Problems of studying and protection of wildlife in natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference on the 50th Anniversary of the publication of the regional summaryThe Animal World of Soviet Bukovyna(Chernivtsi, November 13), 95–98 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Sokolov, V. E., Kotenkova, E. V., Lyalyukhina, S. I. 1990. Biology of House and Mound-building Mice. Nauka, Moscow, 1–208 [In Russian, with English summary].Search in Google Scholar

Sokolov, V. E.; Kotenkova, E. V.; Michailenko, A. G. 2008. “Mus spicilegus”. Mammalian Species, 592, 1–6.Search in Google Scholar

Swets, J. 1988. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 240 (4857), 1285–1293.Search in Google Scholar

Szenczi, P., Bánszegi, O., Dúcs, A., Gedeon, C. I., Markó, G., Németh, I., Altbäcker, V., 2011. Morphology and function of communal mounds of overwintering moundbuilding mice (Mus spicilegus). Journal of Mammalogy, 92 (4), 852–860.Search in Google Scholar

Tokarsky, V. A., Tokarskaya, N. V., Fomenko, T. C. 2011. The Hillock mouse (Mus spicilegus, Rodentia, Mammalia) in Kharkiv region. Bulletin of the Karazin Kharkiv National University. Ser.: Biology, 971 (14), 118–124 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Tsvelykh, A. N. 2009. Distribution of the Hillock mouse, Mus spicilegus (Mammalia), in the Crimean Mountains. Vestnik Zoologii, 43 (2), 185–188 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Vega, G. C., Pertierra, L. R., Olalla-Tárraga, M. A. 2017. MERRAclim, a high-resolution global dataset of remotely sensed bioclimatic variables for ecological modelling. Nature Scientific Data, 4, 170078. doi: 10.1038/sdata.2017.78.Search in Google Scholar

Wangen, K., Speed, J. D. M., Hassel, K. 2016. Hyper-oceanic liverwort species of conservation concern: evidence for dispersal limitation and identification of suitable uncolonised regions. Biodiversity and Conservation, 25 (6), 1053–1071.Search in Google Scholar

Warren, D. L., Seifert, S. N. 2011. Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria. Ecological Applications, 21 (2), 335–342.Search in Google Scholar

Zagorodniuk, I. V., Berezovsky, V. I. 1994. Mus spicilegus (Mammalia) in the fauna of Podolia and the northern border of the home range of this species in Eastern Europe. Zoological Journal, 73 (6), 110–119 [In Russian].Search in Google Scholar

Recommended articles from Trend MD

Plan your remote conference with Sciendo