1. bookVolume 6 (2018): Issue 2 (December 2018)
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
2198-6800
First Published
16 Apr 2017
Publication timeframe
2 times per year
Languages
English, German
access type Open Access

Is the Greek debt sustainable? Analyzing three different scenarios for the forthcoming period 2018–2022

Published Online: 10 Jan 2020
Volume & Issue: Volume 6 (2018) - Issue 2 (December 2018)
Page range: 171 - 182
Received: 13 Dec 2017
Accepted: 19 Mar 2018
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
2198-6800
First Published
16 Apr 2017
Publication timeframe
2 times per year
Languages
English, German
Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to estimate the development of the Greek public debt for the period 2018–2022. In order to achieve this, we analyze three different fiscal scenarios that are based on the official data available, together with our estimations that are based on a specific conceptual framework that we develop. The three scenarios are based on a different mixture of Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates and budgetary surpluses of GDP. The analysis concludes that the numerical outcome is almost the same in all three case scenarios. However, the third scenario is the best since it leads to higher growth, GDP, and less austerity measures, and thus making public debt sustainable in the long run. The third scenario also provides the best combination of the trade-off between austerity and growth. We conclude by discussing some policy measures.

Keywords

JEL Classification

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